Venezia VS Lecce

Venezia and Lecce lock horns in Italian Serie A round 13 clash early Tuesday morning Beijing time. This is the 4th-best league on the planet. A low quality by this league's standard's between these two big clubs is on the cards here.. Most importantly, we have a very lucrative betting opportunity here! Indeed, we have won six consecutive picks betting on this league! Venezia were promoted from the Serie B to this level for this season. They lack quality in all areas of the game! I would be very surprised if they were to avoid relegation.. The last three teams suffer this "fate".  They have taken only eight points but their numbers of expected points (xPTS) is somewhat bigger.. They have scored 11 goals and have conceded 21 goals. At the moment Venezia are in 20th (last) place.  They are also in last place in my power ranking. The sophisticated power ranking reflects the teams' pure class with the best possible starting eleven – excluding "special" factors – such as motivation and fatigue caused by a tough schedule.. Let's also remember that according to a well-known and respected German website, Transfermarkt.com, Lecce are the bigger team here – by a significant  margin! Indeed, their players have an estimated total market value of some 92 million euros, which is still slightly too low.. The Venezia squad is valued at only around 58 million. This is a low number by this league's standards. Some 61-62 million would be a more realistic number though.

Let's not forget that last season Lecce performed reasonably well, ending up in 14th place with 38 points. However, their number of xPTS was 42.03. Yes, they have failed to meet expectations this season. They are in 18th place with 18 points to their account. However, their number of xPTS is 13.56. They are in 15th place in my power ranking and should be able to improve – especially offensively. Rather incredibly they have scored only five goals in the Serie A but in terms of expected goals they would have deserved 14 or 15 goals. Their head coach was sacked during the international break and Marco Giampaolois the new man in charge. The "new manager bounce" is a well-known phenomenon in sports. This means that teams' chance of winning – on average - increases rather significantly in the first game under the new "boss". Lecce will be without Banda, Berisha and Pierret here. Burnete and Gonzalez are questionable at the time of posting this analysis. Venezuela should not have players absent.  Even with the expected lineups, taking the home advantage into account,  I see Venezia as only very marginal favourites here. The biggest bookies disagree, offering the hosts odds of only around 2.25 to win the game. We will take the Lecce +0.5 goals handicap!

Venezia have lost two of their last three matches. In their most recent game, they were priced around 2.25 to defeat Parma ar home but lost 1-2. Their performance was not terrible though. In fact, they recorded a few more goal attempts, Parma, however, generated more in xG 1.34-1.02 to be precise. Before this they were lucky to lose only 0-1 to Inter away from home. Indeed, Inter recorded a whopping 20 goal attempts. Venezia managed only two shots on goal – Inter's number was eight. The xG numbers were 2,89-0.89. In round 10 Venezia defeated Udinese 3-2 at home. Their performance, as a whole, was okay, but not great. Two of the goals were scored from the penalty spot – by the Finnish striker, Joel Pohjanpalo. Moreover, Souleymane Isaak Touré was sent off in the 52nd minute when the score was still 1-2..  I want to highlight that the red card heavily affected the game!

Lecce have taken one win and one draw in their last three games. In their last match Lecce had to settle for a 1-1 draw with Empoli at home. However, Lecce recorded seven more goal attempts. The xG numbers were 1.56-0.66 in Lecce's favour. In round 11 Lecce were, of course, big underdogs – priced around 5.50 to win - against Bologna away from home. Bologna played one of their best games this season and deserved all three points. Lecce were not at their best. 1-0 was the final score. Before this Lecce were solid, especially defensively – taking a 1-0 home win. They shut down Verona's offense almost completely, allowing them only one shot on goal! Lecce also recorded seven more goal attempts than the visitors. The xG numbers were 1.45-0.24. In 9 Lecce were priced over 10.00 by the bookies to beat Napoli away from home. Well, in the end they suffered a 0-1 defeat but pushed Napoli, the current leaders, quite well.. Di Lorenzo scored the 1-0 goal in the 73rd minute. Lecce recorded a decent 11 goal attempts. Napoli, however, simply had too much individual skill and deserved to win..

GOOD LUCK!

威尼斯VS莱切

北京时间周二凌晨，意大利意甲联赛第13轮，威尼斯队和莱切队将展开激战。这是世界上第四好的联盟。按照这个联盟的标准，这两家豪门之间的低质量比赛是有可能的。最重要的是，我们有一个非常有利可图的赌博机会！事实上，我们已经连续六次赢得这个联盟的选秀权！本赛季，威尼斯队从乙级提升到这个级别。他们在比赛的各个方面都缺乏质量！如果他们能保级，我会很惊讶的。最后三支球队遭受这种“命运”。他们只拿了8分，但他们的预期分数（xPTS）要大一些。他们进了11球丢了21球。目前，威尼斯排在第20（最后）位。他们在我的权力排名中也排在最后。复杂的实力排名反映了球队的纯粹等级，包括最好的11名首发球员，不包括“特殊”因素，如动力和紧张赛程引起的疲劳。让我们也记住，根据一个著名的和受人尊敬的德国网站，Transfermarkt.com，莱切在这里是更大的球队-以显着的差距！事实上，他们球员的总市值估计约为9200万欧元，这仍然略低。威尼斯队的身价仅为5800万欧元左右。以联盟的标准来看，这个数字很低。然而，大约6100万至6200万是更现实的数字。

我们不要忘记上赛季莱切的表现相当不错，以38分排名第14。然而，他们的xPTS数量为42.03。是的，他们本赛季没有达到预期。他们以18分排在第18位。但是，它们的xPTS数量为13.56。在我的实力排名中，他们排在第15位，应该能够提高——尤其是在进攻端。令人难以置信的是，他们在意甲只进了5个球，但从预期进球来看，他们应该进14或15个球。他们的主教练在国际比赛日被解雇了，马可·詹保利成为了新的主帅。“新教练反弹”是体育界一个众所周知的现象。这意味着在新“老板”领导下的第一场比赛中，平均而言，球队获胜的机会大大增加。莱切将没有班达，贝里沙和皮埃尔。伯内特和冈萨雷斯在发表这篇分析时受到质疑。委内瑞拉不应该有球员缺席。即使考虑到预期的阵容，考虑到主场优势，我认为威尼斯在这里也只是一个非常小的热门。最大的博彩公司不同意这种说法，他们给出的东道主赢得比赛的赔率只有2.25左右。我们将采取莱切+0.5个进球障碍！

威尼斯在最近三场比赛中输掉了两场。在他们最近的一场比赛中，他们在主场击败帕尔马的价格在2.25左右，但以1比2输掉了比赛。不过他们的表现并不糟糕。事实上，他们记录了更多的进球尝试，然而，准确地说，帕尔马在xG 1.34-1.02期间创造了更多的进球。在此之前，他们很幸运，只在客场0-1输给了国米。事实上，国米的射门次数高达20次。威尼斯只有2次射门，而国米的号码是8。xG值为2.89 ~ 0.89。第10轮，威尼斯主场3-2击败乌迪内斯。他们的表现总体上还可以，但不算出色。其中两个进球来自点球点——由芬兰前锋乔尔·波扬帕洛（Joel Pohjanpalo）打进。此外，Souleymane Isaak tour<s:1>在比分还是1-2的第52分钟被红牌罚下。我想强调的是，红牌严重影响了比赛！

莱切在最近三场比赛中取得了一胜一平的成绩。在上一场比赛中，莱切不得不在主场1-1战平恩波利。然而，莱切又有7次射门。对莱切有利的xG值是1.56-0.66。当然，在第11轮对阵博洛尼亚的比赛中，莱切是大输家——胜率在5.50左右。博洛尼亚打出了他们本赛季最好的一场比赛，完全配得上三分。莱切队状态不佳。1比0是最后的比分。在此之前，莱切很稳固，尤其是在防守端，他们主场1-0大胜。他们几乎完全阻断了维罗纳的进攻，只给维罗纳一次射门机会！莱切的进球次数也比客队多7次。xG值为1.45 ~ 0.24。2009年，莱切队在客场击败那不勒斯队的赌注超过了10美元。好吧，最后他们0-1惨败，但是把现在的领头羊那不勒斯逼得很厉害……迪洛伦佐在第73分钟打进1-0的进球。莱切打进了11球

好运！