Belgium VS Italy

Belgium welcome Italy for this UEFA Europe Nations League League A round 4 battle at King Baudouin Stadium in Brussels early Friday morning Beijing time. A game of very high level by this competition's Group F standards is on the cards here! Most importantly we have a very lucrative chance to extend the good run betting on this competition!  Italy are in 9th place in the FIFA Ranking but this undoubtedly is much too high! 15-16th would be a more realistic place for them at the moment.. Belgium, on the other hand, occupy the 6th place – which is too high as well.. Italy were disappointing as a whole in the (EURO 2024) Qualification Group F – taking only 14 points – the same number as Ukraine managed to take.. England easily won the group. Let's remember that Ukraine failed to qualify for the Playoffs in the EURO 2024..  Moreover, Italy were very lame in their last match in the EURO 2024 - losing to Switzerland, 0-2 in the first round of Playoffs. Switzerland generated more in xG and many more goal attempts.  Italy managed only one shot on goal! They were the favourites according to the bookies in this match but were very disappointing – especially offensively. In the group stage Italy beat a  very lowly team by the EURO 2024 standards, Albania 2-1, lost to Spain only 0-1 but were truly outplayed by Spain who generated much more in xG. Italy weren't able to do much offensively.. Italy also played a 1-1 draw with Croatia, a declining team, as favourites on the betting market.. Italy are in a rebuilding phase and might do much better in 2-5 years time.. Yes, they have improved their level in the Nations League but the bookies have clearly  over-reacted to the first four games! In September they did France 3-1 away from home in the opening round of the Nationals League. They did unarguably play much better than I -  and probably most bettors - would have expected! However, I want to highlight that France were extremely far from their best in this game.. However, both teams had 11 goal attempts and France recorded more shots off goal, total passes, completed passes, attacks (135-69) and dangerous attacks – 65-22. Italy had more shots on goal though. I will not give this good performance from Italy too much emphasis.. In round 2 Italy defeated Israel 2-1 at Bozsik Arena in Budapest, Hungary. They were priced around 1.40 to win by the bookies and deserved the three points but their performance was rather mediocre as a whole..  Italy's number of xG was 1.39. In round 3 Italy and Belgium played a 2-2 draw at Stadio Olimpico. Italy started the game well, taking a 2-0 lead early on. However,  Lo. Pellegrini's red card in the 38th had a big effect on the game.. In the end Belgium had 62% ball possession and recorded many more goal attempts. In their last game Italy defeated Israel 4-1, a pretty poor team, at Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli in Udine as huge favourites - priced around 1.20 to win. They definitely deserved to win but their number of expected goals (xG) was "only" 2.32..

Yes, Belgium's head coach Domenico Tedesco will be without several players here, despite welcoming all-time leading scorer, physically very strong, Lukaku back following his withdrawal from last month's international games. Captain Kevin De Bruyne (Manchester City),  Thomas Meunier, Jeremy Doku, Charles De Ketelaere, Youri Tielemans and Malick Fofana are out. Romeo Lavia and Club Brugge's left-back Maxim De Cuyper - who scored a fine goal against Italy last month – are questionable at the time of writing this analysis. Tedesco has called in Samuel Mbangula, Albert Sambi Lokonga, Killian Sardella and Arthur Vermeeren as to replace the missing players. All four are promising players! Italy's injury list includes one perhaps their most important player, Arsenal defender Riccardo Calafiori. Missing him hurts Italy more than the bookies probably realize.. Torino midfielder Samuele Ricci, is also out.  Gianluca Scamacca and Giorgio Scalvini are not expected to return until next year. Even with the expected lineups - taking the very big home advantage into account,- Belgium deserve to be pretty clear favourites! Odds of around 2.65 are widely available on the betting market at the time of posting this analysis.. We will take the safer Belgium +0.5 goals handicap option. It's true that Belgium have not won any of their last three games but we must remember that they have faced a top-3 country in the world, France, twice.. They can definitely improve..  In their last game they lost to France 1-2 at home but recorded many more goal attempts (20-14), shots on goal as well as shots off target. Moreover, they recorded a high 2.87 in xG – France's number was 1.34!  Belgium's Tielemans missed a penalty in the 23rd minute.. In round 2 Belgium suffered a 0-2 defeat in France but did have their chances to score – recording nine goal attempts – and generated 1.03 in xG. In round 1 Belgium crushed Israel 3-1 at Nagyerdei Stadion in Debrecen, a neutral location. Belgium's Openda even missed a penalty.. Belgium recorded an impressive 3.43 in xG!  As Belgium defended extremely well, Israel generated only 0.33 in xG..  Let's not forget that Belgium managed to qualify for the Playoffs in the EURO 2024 and pushed France hard as clear underdogs according to the bookmakers. France grabbed a 1-0 win through Verthongen's own goal in the 85th minute.. In the EURO 2024 group stage Belgium were unlucky to lose to Slovakia 0-1, after generating much more in xG; very comfortably beat Romania 2-0 -  and played a 0-0 draw against Ukraine in the 3rd round.

GOOD LUCK!

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比利时VS意大利

北京时间周五凌晨，在布鲁塞尔博杜安国王体育场，比利时将迎来欧洲国家联赛A轮第四轮的比赛。一场按照本次比赛F组标准非常高水平的比赛就在这里！最重要的是，我们有一个非常有利可图的机会，以延长良好的运行投注在这个比赛！意大利在国际足联排名中排名第9，但这无疑太高了！15-16日对他们来说是更现实的地点。另一方面，比利时占据了第6位——这也太高了……意大利在（2024年欧洲杯）预选赛F组的整体表现令人失望，只拿到14分，和乌克兰拿到的一样多。英格兰轻松赢得小组头名。让我们记住，乌克兰没能进入2024年欧洲杯的季后赛。此外，意大利在2024年欧洲杯的最后一场比赛中表现非常糟糕——在季后赛第一轮0-2负于瑞士。瑞士队的射门次数更多，射门次数也更多。意大利只射门一次！根据博彩公司的说法，他们是这场比赛的热门，但非常令人失望——尤其是在进攻端。在小组赛中，意大利以2比1击败了一支按照2024年欧洲杯标准排名非常低的球队阿尔巴尼亚，仅以0比1输给了西班牙，但西班牙队在2016年的比赛中创造了更多的机会。意大利在进攻端做不到什么。意大利还与克罗地亚打了一场1比1的平局，克罗地亚是一支实力正在下滑的球队，是博彩市场上的热门球队。意大利正处于重建阶段，可能会在2-5年内做得更好。是的，他们在国家联赛中的水平有所提高，但博彩公司显然对前四场比赛反应过度了！9月，他们在全国联赛首轮客场3-1击败法国队。毫无疑问，他们的表现比我——也可能是大多数投注者——预期的要好得多！然而，我想强调的是，法国队在这场比赛中远远没有达到最佳状态。然而，两队都有11次进球尝试，法国队的射门次数、总传球次数、完成传球次数、进攻次数（135比69）和危险进攻次数（65比22）都更多。意大利的射门次数更多。我不会过多强调意大利的出色表现。在第二轮比赛中，意大利队在匈牙利布达佩斯的博兹克竞技场以2比1击败了以色列队。博彩公司给他们开出了1.40左右的赔率，他们理应得到3分，但他们的整体表现相当平庸。意大利的xG数量为1.39。在第三轮比赛中，意大利和比利时在奥林匹克体育场以2比2战平。意大利队开局不错，一开始就以2:0领先。然而,瞧。佩莱格里尼在第38分钟的红牌对比赛产生了很大的影响。最后比利时队有62%的控球率，并且有更多的进球尝试。在上一场比赛中，意大利在乌迪内的蓝能源体育场（blue energy Stadium）以4比1击败了实力不强的以色列队，这支球队的夺冠概率在1.20英镑左右。他们绝对应该赢，但他们的预期进球数（xG）“只有”2.32…

是的，比利时主教练特德斯科将缺席几名球员，尽管他欢迎历史上的头号射手、身体非常强壮的卢卡库在上个月退出国际比赛后回归。队长凯文·德布鲁因（曼城）、托马斯·梅尼耶、杰里米·多库、查尔斯·德凯特尔雷、尤里·蒂勒曼斯和马力克·福法纳将缺席。罗密欧·拉维亚和布鲁日俱乐部的左后卫马克西姆·德·库佩尔——他在上个月对意大利的比赛中打进了一粒漂亮的进球——在写这篇分析的时候是值得怀疑的。特德斯科已经征召了姆班古拉、洛孔加、萨尔德拉和维米尔恩来代替缺阵的球员。这四个都是很有前途的球员！意大利的伤兵名单中包括了他们最重要的球员，阿森纳后卫里卡多·卡拉菲奥里。失去他对意大利的伤害可能比博彩公司意识到的要大。都灵中场萨缪勒·里奇也将缺席。吉安卢卡·斯卡马卡和乔治·斯卡尔维尼预计要到明年才会回归。即使考虑到预期的阵容——考虑到非常大的主场优势——比利时应该是非常明显的大热门！在发布此分析时，投注市场上的赔率约为2.65。我们将采取比利时+0.5个进球障碍的安全选项。的确，比利时最近三场比赛一场都没赢过，但我们必须记住，他们曾两次面对世界排名前三的国家——法国……他们肯定可以提高…在上一场比赛中，他们主场1比2输给了法国队

有更多的射门次数（20胜14负），射正和射偏。此外，他们在xG上的得分高达2.87，而法国的数字是1.34！比利时的蒂勒曼斯在第23分钟罚丢了一个点球。在第二轮比赛中，比利时队0-2不敌法国队，但他们也有进球的机会——他们有9次进球尝试——在第二轮比赛中创造了1.03个进球。在第一轮比赛中，比利时在德布勒森的Nagyerdei体育场以3:1击败以色列。比利时的奥彭达甚至丢了一个点球。比利时队在本届世界杯中取得了令人印象深刻的3.43分。由于比利时防守非常好，以色列在xG只产生了0.33…我们不要忘记，根据博彩公司的说法，比利时成功晋级2024年欧洲杯的季后赛，并以明显的劣势击败了法国。法国队在第85分钟凭借弗通根的乌龙球以1-0取胜。在2024年欧洲杯小组赛阶段，比利时不幸以0比1不敌斯洛伐克，而在2016年，比利时的进球要多得多；2-0轻松击败罗马尼亚，并在第3轮0-0战平乌克兰。

好运！