I don’t really like Osasuna this season (especially their coach), but I see them as far superior to Valladolid here. The reality is that Osasuna is performing very well, especially at home, where their record includes 4 victories, a defeat against Betis in their last game—a match full of chances that they could have won—and a draw against Leganes in the first round, where they also played very well in the second half and deserved to win.

At home, contrary to my expectations for this coach (who is quite defensive), Osasuna is playing with great intensity, high pressing, and a strong offensive style. With 12 goals in 6 home games, they are the second-highest-scoring home team in the league, only surpassed by Real Madrid.

Playing away is a different story (though they have managed some positive results lately), as they tend to play conservatively and create very few chances on goal. However, at home, they have revived the classic “Osasuna essence”: a team that is very uncomfortable to play against and difficult to beat due to their intensity.

Fans and players alike seem to have regained their enthusiasm, and the team is brimming with confidence. There are no injuries, and the entire squad is at 100%. Budimir has also has a strong season with 5 goals in 11 matches, while new transfers—winger Bryan Zaragoza (5 assists + 1 goal) and center-back Boyomo—have been crucial to the team. Many players in the starting XI are in great form, from the goalkeeper to both central defenders, midfielders Torro and Oroz, and forwards Zaragoza and Budimir, who are creating numerous opportunities and goals.

The only potential issue in this fixture is that Osasuna is more comfortable without possession (they average 43.2% in La Liga, and 45.5% at home), while Valladolid is likely to play defensively and avoid taking the initiative. This means Osasuna will likely dominate possession here, but they’ve won all their home games in which they had less possession, as their opponents took the initiative.

Nevertheless, in the game against Betis where they had 54% possession, played very well and created many chances (2.00 expected goals, 19 shots, 7 on target). Similarly, in the first-round match against Leganes, they had 61% possession, generated plenty of opportunities (1.61 xG, 16 shots, 6 on target), and deserved to win.

On the other hand, Valladolid is the worst team in the league. The problem isn’t with the coach or tactics but with the squad itself. They simply lack the quality required for La Liga. Unlike other teams lacking in quality (e.g., Leganes, Getafe), Valladolid also lacks experience, a solid defense, and effective tactics.

Valladolid is an easy team to break down due to their vulnerable defense. On the last day of the transfer market, they sold their best defender, Boyomo, to Osasuna without a replacement, and they’re conceding numerous chances and goals. So far, they’ve kept only 3 clean sheets, all at home: a 0–0 against Leganes (probably the league’s weakest offense), Espanyol (a newly promoted team lacking quality up front), and Real Sociedad, who generated 1.41 expected goals and deserved to win.

They don’t have a reliable goal scorer, can’t control games from midfield, and their best player, Raul Moro, struggles to complete games physically (he’s only played four full matches so far). Valladolid has only scored 9 goals, with 3 of those coming from penalties.

I expect Osasuna’s superior quality to be decisive here. Set pieces will likely play a key role, as Osasuna is strong in this area, having scored 4 goals from set pieces so far, while Valladolid’s defense is poor. Valladolid is the second-most-shot-against team in the league, averaging 15.6 shots conceded per game, and even higher as visitors (17.2).

Osasuna has the confidence and quality to win this match. I don’t see Valladolid keeping a clean sheet, nor do I see them scoring 2-3 goals here. I expect a result like 2–1 or 2–0 in favor of the hosts.

我不太喜欢奥萨苏纳这个赛季（尤其是他们的教练），但我认为他们在这里比巴利亚多利德要好得多。现实情况是奥萨苏纳表现得非常好，尤其是在主场，他们的战绩包括4场胜利，在上一场比赛中输给贝蒂斯——一场充满机会的比赛——以及在首轮对阵莱加内斯的比赛中战平，他们在下半场也踢得很好，应该获胜。

在主场，与我对这位教练（他很注重防守）的预期相反，奥萨苏纳的比赛强度很大，压力很大，进攻风格很强。他们在6场主场比赛中打进12球，是联赛第二高的主场球队，仅次于皇家马德里。

在客场比赛是另一种情况（尽管他们最近取得了一些积极的成绩），因为他们倾向于保守的比赛，创造很少的进球机会。然而，在主场，他们恢复了经典的“奥萨苏纳精髓”：一支非常不舒服的球队，由于他们的强度很难被击败。

球迷和球员似乎都重新找回了热情，球队也充满了信心。没有人受伤，整个球队都处于100%的状态。布迪米尔本赛季表现强劲，在11场比赛中打进5球，而新转会的边锋布莱恩·萨拉戈萨（5次助攻+ 1球）和中后卫博伊莫对球队至关重要。首发阵容中的许多球员状态都很好，从门将到两名中卫，中场托罗和奥罗兹，以及前锋萨拉戈萨和布迪米尔，他们创造了无数的机会和进球。

本场比赛唯一的潜在问题是奥萨苏纳在没有控球权的情况下更舒服（他们在西甲的平均控球率为43.2%，在主场的平均控球率为45.5%），而巴利亚德利德可能会打防守，避免采取主动。这意味着奥萨苏纳很可能会控制控球权，但他们赢得了所有控球率较低的主场比赛，因为他们的对手占据了主动。

然而，在对阵贝蒂斯的比赛中，他们拥有54%的控球率，踢得很好，创造了很多机会（2.00个预期进球，19次射门，7次射正）。同样，在首轮对阵莱加内斯的比赛中，他们有61%的控球率，创造了大量的机会（平均每场1.61次，16次射门，6次射正），他们理应获胜。

另一方面，巴利亚多利德是联盟中最差的球队。问题不在于教练或战术，而在于球队本身。他们只是缺乏参加西甲联赛所需的实力。与其他缺乏实力的球队（如莱加内斯、赫塔菲）不同，巴利亚多利德也缺乏经验、稳固的防守和有效的战术。

由于防守脆弱，巴利亚多利德是一支很容易被击败的球队。在转会市场的最后一天，他们把他们最好的后卫博伊莫卖给了奥萨苏纳，没有替补，他们失去了很多机会和进球。到目前为止，他们只保持了3次零封，都是在主场：0-0对阵莱加内斯（可能是联赛进攻最弱的球队），西班牙人（一支新提升的球队，前场缺乏实力），以及皇家社会（皇家社会预期进球1.41个，理应获胜）。

他们没有一个可靠的射手，不能在中场控制比赛，他们最好的球员劳尔·莫罗（Raul Moro）很难用身体来完成比赛（他到目前为止只打满了四场比赛）。巴利亚多利德只进了9个球，其中3个来自点球。

我希望奥萨苏纳的出色能力在这里起到决定性作用。定位球可能会发挥关键作用，因为奥萨苏纳在这方面很强大，到目前为止已经打进了4个定位球，而巴利亚多利德的防守很差。巴利亚多利德是联赛中被射门次数第二多的球队，场均被射门15.6次，客队被射门17.2次甚至更高。

奥萨苏纳有信心和能力赢得这场比赛。我没有看到巴利亚多利德保持零封，也没有看到他们在这里进2-3球。我希望结果是2-1或2-0对东道主有利。