FC Twente Enschede VS Lazio

Twente challenge Lazio in this UEFA Europa League league phase round 3 battle at De Grolsch Veste in Enschede early Friday morning Beijing time. This is the second-highest of UEFA's three international club competitions. Football fans and us serious, profit-hungry bettors can expect a match of slightly better than average quality by this league's standards here. Most importantly, my fans and I have yet another very promising opportunity to extend the hot streak of 5/6 last picks/bets won betting on this league! I will post many more high-quality analyses on Thursday. I want to emphasize that Lazio undoubtedly have a clear edge over the hosts in all areas of the game! They finished in 7thth place in the Serie A last season with a pretty good 61 points. Their number of expected points (xPTS) was slightly lower though.. I want to highlight that the Serie A is the 4th-best league on the planet. Most importantly, it is hugely better than the Dutch Eredivisie as a whole. PSV and Feyenoord were clearly the best teams last season. Ajax, on the other hand, had a very poor season last season but have been much better previously - in the last 5-10 years.. However, most teams in the Eredivisie are not great - or big in terms of players estimated total market value/overall financial resources.. Twente ended up in 3rd place last season, a whopping 22 points behind the winners, PSV. At the moment they are in 6th place with 15 points, 12 points behind PSV, the current leaders. Their score difference is good – but not great – 16:9 to be precise. I would be somewhat surprised if they were to finish in the top-3 this season. 5-7th place is on the cards for Twente. Let's also remember that according to a well-known and respected German website, Transfermarkt.com, Lazio are the bigger team here - by a big margin! Indeed, their players have an estimated total market value of some 234 million euros, which is still too low!  The Twente squad is valued at around 77 million - which is slightly too low. I would be quite surprised if Twente were to win this match.. The bookies have made yet another mistake and strongly disagree with me  -  offering Twente odds of only around 2.70 to take all three points here.. Based on my strongly data-based expert analysis Lazio deserve to be solid favourites here with a 46% chance of winning. With the recommended Lazio +0.5 goals handicap option we have an excellent chance of making a profit – once again!

Twente have not been in particularly strong form recently – winning just one of their last five games..  In their last game they were priced around 1.30-1.35 to beat the very lowly Waalwijk - the rock-bottom team with just one point - on the road but were disappointing.. It was, in the end, a 2-2 draw. Twente did record more shots on goal though – 7-4 to be precise. Before this they lost to Feyenoord on the road 1-2. The hosts were not at their best but still recorded one more shot on goal and generated more in xG – 1.33-0.65. In the 2nd round of the Europa League Twente played quite well, taking a point at home against Fenerbahce through a 1-1 draw. The recorded 15 goal attempts – the Turkish visitors managed seven. Before this Twente were very big favourites against NAC Breda at home. Twente did take a 1-0 win but were far from impressive - especially offensively. Their attacks lacked speed and creativity.  Twente generated only 1.21 in xG – which was more than Breda did but the visitors were not without a chance in this game.. Indeed, they did have seven goal attempts. In the Europa League opening round Twente were the worst team against Man United on the road but mainly thanks to Man United -  once again - being lame, it was a 1-1 draw. However, Twente do deserve some credit for their decent performance.

Lazio currently occupy the 7th place in the Serie A with a pretty good 13 points. Their number of xPTS is much better - 15.45. They have scored 14 goals and have conceded 12 goals. Their number of expected goals allowed (xGA) is, however, only 8.95.  They have no obvious strengths or weaknesses in their game but - most importantly - have much more individual skill than Twente. The team from Rome have won four of their last five games and must be high in confidence. In their last match they faced the only unbeaten team in the Serie A, Juventus, in Turin and lost 1-0. Juventus, who have allowed only one goal in the Serie A, were simply took strong, especially defensively, and deserved to win the game.  Before this Lazio were excellent, despite beating Empoli only 2-1 at home. They recorded many more shots on goal, shots off target and goal attempts – 16-7. The xG numbers were 2.78-0.55. In the 2nd round of the Europa League Lazio crushed a pretty strong French team, Nice, 4-1 at home. They generated much more in xG – 2.56-0.75 – and, of course, deserved all three points! Before this Lazio were only narrow favourites on the betting market to beat Torino on the road but took a fine 3-2 win. The xG numbers were 2.24-0.73 in Lazio's favour! Before this Lazio were priced around 2.30 to beat Dynamo Kyiv at Volksparkstadion, a neutral location. Lazio's odds were, once again, too high as they took a great 3-0 win, allowing the Ukrainians only 0.54 in xG. Lazio's number was 2.19.

Twente's most significant absentee here will be Moroccan midfielder Younes Taha, who is sidelined until next year due to a leg injury. His absence does hurt Twente more than the bookies probably understand.. Rots is out as well. Twente's head coach, Joseph Oosting could make a handful of changes to the starting eleven that grabbed a late (90th +1 minute 2-2 goal) draw in Waalwijk, but Michel Vlap - who scored the opening goal against Fenerbahce - and Sem Steijn will probably keep their places.. Following another goal on last Saturday, the latter has now been directly involved in nine of his Twente's 16 Eredivisie goals this season. He is a player for my fans to watch closely here. Lazio's head coach, Marco Baroni, is expected to rotate his squad again.. He has made several changes to Lazio's "normal" starting lineup in both Europa League matches this season. Luckily Lazio have a somewhat deep squad, full of talented players.. The Dutch  Tijjani Noslin is unfortunately out as he received a three-game ban from UEFA for violent conduct..  Manuel Lazzari is out due to a thigh issue.. The dangerous but often underrated Taty Castellanos - and Boulaye Dia have both scored twice in this league, and either forward should start up front in this game..

GOOD LUCK!

该文章通过有道机器翻译，仅供参考:

特温特恩斯赫德VS拉齐奥

北京时间周五凌晨，特温特将在恩斯赫德的大广场球场与拉齐奥进行欧联杯第三轮的较量。这是欧足联三场国际俱乐部比赛中第二高的。足球迷和我们这些认真的、追求利润的投注者可以期待一场比联赛平均水平稍好一点的比赛。最重要的是，我和我的球迷还有另一个非常有希望的机会来延续上次5/6的选择/投注赢得这个联赛的连胜纪录！我将在周四发布更多高质量的分析。我想强调的是拉齐奥在比赛的各个方面都比东道主有明显的优势！上赛季他们以61分的好成绩在意甲排名第七。他们的期望值（xPTS）略低。我想强调的是，意甲是这个星球上排名第四的联赛。最重要的是，它比整个荷甲联赛要好得多。埃因霍温和费耶诺德显然是上赛季最好的球队。另一方面，阿贾克斯上赛季的表现非常糟糕，但在过去的5-10年里，他们的表现要好得多。然而，在球员估计总市场价值/整体财政资源方面，大多数球队都不是伟大的。特文特上赛季排名第三，比冠军埃因霍温落后22分。目前他们以15分排名第6，比目前的领头羊埃因霍温落后12分。他们的比分差距还不错，但并不大，准确地说是16:9。如果他们本赛季能进入前三，我会有些惊讶。特文特有可能获得5-7名。让我们也记住，根据一个著名的和受人尊敬的德国网站，Transfermarkt.com，拉齐奥是这里更大的球队-以很大的优势！事实上，他们的球员估计总市值约为2.34亿欧元，这仍然太低了！特文特队的总价约为7700万英镑，这个数字略低。如果特文特赢了这场比赛，我会很惊讶的。博彩公司又犯了一个错误，并且强烈反对我的观点——给特文特提供的赔率只有2.70左右，以获得所有三分……根据我强有力的基于数据的专家分析，拉齐奥有46%的获胜机会，应该是最受欢迎的球队。在推荐的拉齐奥+0.5个进球障碍选项中，我们有一个绝佳的盈利机会——再一次！

特文特最近的状态不是特别好，最近五场比赛只赢了一场。在他们上一场比赛中，他们的定价在1.30-1.35左右，击败了排名垫底的瓦勒维克队（仅得一分），但结果令人失望。最后，双方以2比2战平。特文特的射门次数更多，准确地说是7-4。在此之前，他们客场1-2输给了费耶诺德。主队虽然状态不佳，但仍然多射了一次，进球也更多。比分为xG - 1.33-0.65。在欧联杯第二轮，特文特踢得不错，在主场1-1战平费内巴切，拿到1分。记录中有15次射门，土耳其客队有7次。在此之前特温特是主场对阵布雷达的大热门。特文特以1-0取胜，但他们的表现并不令人印象深刻，尤其是在进攻端。他们的进攻缺乏速度和创造力。特文特在xG只创造了1.21个进球，比布雷达多，但客队在这场比赛中并不是没有机会。事实上，他们有7次进球尝试。在欧联杯首轮对阵曼联的比赛中，特温特是客场表现最差的球队，但主要是由于曼联的蹩脚表现，我们只得1-1战平。然而，特文特的出色表现确实值得表扬。

拉齐奥目前以相当不错的13分排名意甲第7位。他们的xPTS数量要好得多——15.45个。他们进了14球丢了12球。然而，他们的预期进球数（xGA）只有8.95。他们在比赛中没有明显的优势和劣势，但最重要的是，他们比特温特有更多的个人技术。这支来自罗马的球队在最近的五场比赛中赢了四场，他们一定信心十足。在上一场比赛中，他们在都灵面对意甲唯一不败的球队尤文图斯，以0比1输掉了比赛。尤文图斯在意甲联赛中只丢了一个球，他们表现得很强势，尤其是在防守端，他们理应赢得这场比赛。在此之前，拉齐奥表现出色，尽管在主场仅以2-1击败恩波利。他们记录了更多的正射、偏射和射门次数——16胜7负。的xG

数字为2.78-0.55。在欧联杯第二轮比赛中，拉齐奥主场以4比1击败了实力强大的法国球队尼斯。他们在xG的得分要高得多——2.56-0.75——当然，这三分是他们应得的！在此之前，拉齐奥在投注市场上只是在客场击败都灵的微弱热门，但最终以3-2的比分大胜。xG的数据是2.24-0.73，对拉齐奥有利！在此之前，拉齐奥在中立位置的人民公园球场击败基辅迪纳摩的价格在2.30左右。拉齐奥的胜率再一次太高了，他们以3-0大胜，只给了乌克兰人0.54分。拉齐奥的数字是2.19。

特温特最重要的缺阵将是摩洛哥中场尤尼斯·塔哈，由于腿伤，他将缺阵到明年。他的缺席对特文特的伤害可能比博彩公司想象的要大。rot也被淘汰了。特温特的主教练约瑟夫·乌斯廷可能会对11人的首发阵容做出一些调整，这些人在最后阶段（第90分钟+1分钟2-2）与瓦勒维克战平，但是米歇尔·弗拉普——他在对阵费内巴切的比赛中打进了第一球——和塞姆·施泰因可能会保留他们的位置。继上周六的另一个进球后，后者已经直接参与了本赛季特温特16个荷甲进球中的9个。他是我的球迷应该密切关注的球员。拉齐奥的主教练，马可·巴罗尼，预计将再次轮换他的阵容。在本赛季的两场欧联杯比赛中，他对拉齐奥的“正常”首发阵容做了一些调整。幸运的是，拉齐奥的阵容很有深度，有很多有天赋的球员。不幸的是，荷兰人蒂贾尼·诺斯林因暴力行为被欧足联禁赛三场。曼努埃尔·拉扎里因为大腿受伤而缺阵。危险但经常被低估的卡斯特利亚诺斯和布拉耶·迪亚都在联赛中梅开二度，他们中的任何一个都应该在这场比赛中首发。

好运！