Five games in the Italian Serie A are happening on Sunday. One of the matches will be between Lecce and Fiorentina. After 7 games, Lecce has 1 win, 2 draws, 4 losses, a total of 5 points and 17th place while Fiorentina has 2 wins, 4 draws, 1 loss, a total of 10 points and 11th place. In this game, I predict that Fiorentina won't lose.

Lecce has lost both previous Serie A games that were against Milan and Udinese. Lecce has won just once this season and that was at home against Cagliari despite having a red card at the end of the 1st half and opponents having a little bit better xG rating. Lecce has struggled at home this season with 1 win, 1 draw and 1 loss, a total of 3 goals scored and 6 conceded. Lecce so far this season has created xG rating of 7.6, xGA is at 10.8 with a difference of -3.2.

Fiorentina won the last game before the break and it was against AC Milan. That game was crazy because Fiorentina's goalkeeper saved two penalties while Fiorentina also missed one penalty. Interesting that Fiorentina isn't higher in the standings because they have lost just one game this season. After 3 road games, Fiorentina hasn't won a single game as they have 2 draws and 1 loss, a total of 3 goals scored and 4 conceded. Fiorentina has created xG of 10.2 this season, xGA is at 8.2 with a difference of +2.

I'm backing Fiorentina in this game. They are the favorites and I wouldn't be surprised to see a 1st road win for them. Lecce won the previous meeting but they scored 2 goals in the last 4 minutes of the game so they were a little bit lucky. If we look deeper, Fiorentina hasn't lost 4 out of the last 5 meetings against Lecce. While Fiorentina has a Conference League game next week, they should be very motivated finally getting the 1st road win of the season.

周日将有五场意甲比赛。其中一场比赛将在莱切和佛罗伦萨之间进行。7场比赛后，莱切1胜2平4负，共积5分，排名第17位，而佛罗伦萨2胜4平1负，共积10分，排名第11位。在这场比赛中，我预测佛罗伦萨不会输。

莱切在之前的意甲联赛中输给了米兰和乌迪内斯。莱切本赛季只赢过一场，那是在主场对阵卡利亚里的比赛中，尽管在上半场结束时他吃了一张红牌，而对手的xG值稍好一些。莱切本赛季在主场表现不佳，1胜1平1负，进3球失6球。莱切本赛季至今的xG评分为7.6，xGA评分为10.8，差值为-3.2。

佛罗伦萨赢得了中场休息前的最后一场比赛，对手是AC米兰。那场比赛很疯狂，因为佛罗伦萨的守门员扑出了两个点球，而佛罗伦萨也罚丢了一个点球。有趣的是，佛罗伦萨的排名并不靠前，因为他们本赛季只输了一场比赛。在3场客场比赛之后，佛罗伦萨一场也没有赢过，他们2平1负，进3球丢4球。佛罗伦萨本赛季创造的xG值为10.2，xGA值为8.2，两者相差+2。

在这场比赛中我支持佛罗伦萨。他们是最受欢迎的球队，我不会对他们的首胜感到惊讶。莱切赢得了之前的比赛，但他们在比赛的最后4分钟进了2球，所以他们有点幸运。如果我们深入研究一下，佛罗伦萨在最近5次对阵莱切的比赛中没有输掉4场。虽然佛罗伦萨下周有一场联盟比赛，但他们应该会非常有动力，最终获得本赛季的第一场客场胜利。