FC Bayern Munich VS VfB Stuttgart

Bayern Munchen and Stuttgart lock horns in this German Bundesliga round 7 clash at Allianz Arena in Munich very early Sunday morning Beijing time. This is the second-best league in the world, after the English Premier League! Football enthusiasts and us serious bettors – with a long-term profit in mind can expect a game of excellent quality by the Bundesliga standards. Yes, Bayern Munchen are the best team in the Bundesliga but are by no means the "dominant force they were some 3-10 years ago. In the 2022-2023 they were very close to "losing" the championship to Dortmund. Last season they were poor – by their standards – only finishing in 3rd place, behind Stuttgart. Indeed, Munchen took 72 points and Stuttgart 73. Leverkusen were the champions – by a huge margin. The teams last locked horns in May and Stuttgart took a fine 3-1 home win. They recorded hugely more goal attempts (24-10) shots on goal (11-3) and shots off target. They also generated clearly more in expected goals (xG). However, of course at home Bayern are clear favourites here. Even so, the current odds of around 1.30-1.35 on the home win are clearly too low! We will take the Stuttgart +1.5 goals handicap. The chance of winning is 57% and odds of slightly over 2.00 are widely available. Bayern currently top the standings with 14 points and have a score difference of 20:7. However, their number of xG is "only" 14.23. Their number of expected points (xPTS) is slightly lower. Stuttgart have grabbed nine points but their number of xPTS is 12.56. They have been unlucky in terms of both xG and expected goals allowed (xGA).

Let's not forget that Stuttgart have lost just one of their last 10 games! This loss came in September against Real Madrid away from home 1-3 in the Champions League. Stuttgart were, of course, big underdogs in this game but played well despite losing. The final score clearly flatters Real! Real's Rudiger scored the winning goal in the 83th minute.. Stuttgart have now taken four draws in a row and have been very unlucky not to win any of these four matches! For example, in round 2 of the Champions League they recorded almost 30 goal attempts at home against Sparta Prague and had 11 shots on target but it was still a 1-1 draw. Stuttgart also generated 2.21 in xG.. Bayern have not won any of their last three games, despite being very clear favourites in all three matches. In their most recent game they were priced around 1.50 to beat Frankfurt on the road but it was a 3-3 draw. I was not impressed with Bayern's defence/balance on the pitch. They did generate much more than the hosts in xG though. Before this they lost to Aston Villa 0-1 away from home. It was a Champions League clash. Bayern did generate more in xG (1.29) and have 67% ball possession but were definitely overrated on the betting market – once again!

GOOD LUCK!

拜仁慕尼黑VS斯图加特

北京时间周日凌晨，拜仁慕尼黑和斯图加特将在慕尼黑安联球场进行德甲第7轮的交锋。这是世界上第二好的联赛，仅次于英超！足球爱好者和我们这些着眼长远利益的严肃的投注者可以期待一场以德甲标准衡量的高质量比赛。是的，拜仁慕尼黑是德甲最好的球队，但绝不是3-10年前的“统治力量”。在2022-2023赛季，他们非常接近“失去”多特蒙德的冠军。上赛季他们的表现很差——按照他们的标准——只排在第三，落后于斯图加特。事实上，慕尼黑得到72分，斯图加特得到73分。勒沃库森是冠军——以巨大的优势。两队上一次交锋是在五月份，斯图加特主场3:1大胜。他们的射门次数（24次-10次）、射正（11次-3次）和射偏（11次-3次）要多得多。他们也产生了更多的预期目标（xG）。然而，在主场拜仁显然是夺冠热门。即便如此，目前主场获胜的赔率约为1.30-1.35，显然太低了！我们将采取斯图加特+1.5个进球的不利条件。获胜的几率为57%，而超过2.00的赔率也很普遍。目前，拜仁以14分排名第一，两队的积分差距为20:7。然而，他们的xG数量“只有”14.23。他们的期望值（xPTS）略低。斯图加特拿到了9分，但他们的积分是12.56分。他们在总进球数和预期进球（总进球数）方面都不走运。

别忘了斯图加特最近10场比赛只输了一场！这场失利发生在9月份欧冠客场1-3负于皇马。当然，斯图加特在这场比赛中处于劣势，尽管输了，但他们踢得很好。最后的比分显然对皇马有利！皇马的鲁迪格在第83分钟打进致胜一球。斯图加特现在已经连续四场平局，非常不幸的是这四场比赛没有赢过一场！例如，在欧洲冠军联赛第二轮，他们在主场对阵布拉格斯巴达的比赛中有近30次进球，有11次射门正射，但结果仍然是1-1平局。斯图加特也产生了2.21在xG..拜仁在最近的三场比赛中没有赢过一场，尽管在这三场比赛中都是非常明显的热门。在他们最近一场客场击败法兰克福的比赛中，他们的定价在1.50左右，但结果是3-3平局。我对拜仁在球场上的防守和平衡印象不深。但它们确实比xG中的宿主产生了更多的能量。在此之前，他们客场0-1输给了阿斯顿维拉。这是一场欧冠比赛。拜仁的射门率更高（1.29），控球率也达到67%，但在博彩市场上，他们绝对被高估了——再一次！

好运！