Fulham VS Aston Villa

Fulham and Aston Villa lock horns in this English premier League round 8 battle at Craven Cottage in London late Saturday evening Beijing time. This is clearly the best league in the world! Football fans and us serious bettors – with a long-term profit in mind, of course – can expect a game of better than average quality by this league's standards here.. However, we have yet another awesome betting opportunity to extend the winning streak of four picks and the good streak of 10/12 last picks won in this league. Aston Villa were excellent, and often underrated by the bookmakers, last season and seem to – once again – this season as well! They finished in 4th place last season, consequently earning a ticket for the legendary UEFA Champions League. They have started the Champions League with two fine wins! In the Champions league opening round Aston Villa swept past Young Boys, a decent Swiss team, 3-0 on the road. It was a great performance from the team from Birmingham. The expected goals (xG) numbers were very clear - 2.45-0.39 in Villa's favour to be precise! In the 2nd round they defeated a top-6 team in the world -  the German giants Bayern Munchen at home. The bookies, once again, underrated Villa, seeing them as big underdogs – priced around 4.50-5.30 to win. U. Emery had come with a brilliant, rather defensive tactic – which the Villa players executed close to perfection! Bayern Munich did have 67% ball possession and did record more goal attempts and shots on goal but generated only 1.29 in xG – a relatively low number for Bayern Munich this season.. Yes, Villa needed some luck to take all three points but their performance, especially their goalkeeper, a world champion with Argentina, Emiliano Martinez was excellent!

Let's not forget that Villa have not lost one of their last eight games, winning 6/8. The bookies have made yet another mistake here, offering Fulham odds of around 2.30-2.40 to win. Based on my strongly data-based analysis, Villa should be narrow favourites here.  The Villa +0.5 goals handicap option is the obvious smart bet here. Yes, they have a Champions League coming up on Tuesday but the Italian opponent, Bologna, is not a very strong one as they lost several key players after last season.. I do not expect much - if any  -  squad rotation from Villa's excellent but often underrated manager, U. Emery. He has done excellent work with Aston Villa, who were a very mediocre team prior to his arrival. Let's also remember that Villa have won four of the last games between the two teams. In February Villa beat Fulham 2-1 at this stadium 2-1, generating 1.87 in xG. Fulham's number was 1.13. In November 2023 Villa easily beat Fulham at home 3-1, generating hugely more in xG – 3.65-0.57! Let's also remember that according to a well-known and respected German website, Transfermarkt.com, Aston Villa are the bigger team here - by a very wide margin! Indeed, their players have an estimated total market value of some 615 million euros! The Fulham squad is valued at 346  million - which is unarguably still too high! Three of their players are overvalued.. They will be without Carlos Vinicius, Cuenca and Lukic – who are all injured. As for Villa. Konsa and McGinn are injured. Kamara, Mings, Onana and Ramsey are questionable. Luckily for Villa – and us, as we are betting on them to avoid a defeat – Villa have a pretty deep squad full of talented players – eager to prove their skills!

Villa's latest defeat came on the 24th of August against Arsenal, a top-4 team on the planet, at home as clear underdogs 0-2 but generated more than "The Gunners" in xG – 1.88-1.55 - to be precise. The final score was, indeed, misleading! In their last game, Villa played a goalless draw with Manchester United at home. Both teams seemed to be somewhat fatigued from previous Champions League games.. The game was of lower tempo – and level as whole – than expected.  Even so, Villa recorded more goal attempts, shots off goal (7-4) but Man United had more shots on goal. The xG numbers were 0.87-0.63 in Villa's favour. Before this Villa were very far from their best and had to settle for a 2-2 with Ipswich on the road. However, I want to highlight that Ipswich probably played their best game of the season – performing way above their normal level!  Villa were the better team on the pitch for some 65 minutes but late into the 2nd half Ipswich created quite a lot of pressure on Villa - and could even have scored the winning goal.. Villa were criticized quite a lot for their performance in the (English) football media but as a professional football bettor I will not react too much to this game.. On the 24th of last month Villa beat Wycombe 2-1 away from home in an EFL Cup clash. Before this Villa deservedly beat Wolves at home 3-1 after a strong performance in the second half. Villa were, however, for some reason,  far from their best in this match. The visitors, on the other hand, played surprisingly well.. Even so, Villa generated 2.21 in xG, Wolves' number was 0.77. Villa currently occupy the 5th place in the standings with a fine 14 points on their pocket and have a score difference of 12:9. They have an excellent chance of finishing in the top-5, perhaps even top-4! The current top-3 three teams -  Liverpool, Manchester City and Arsenal -  will most probably be too strong to beat.. Villa definitely have more potential for improvement than Fulham..

Yes, Fulham have started the season better than I would have expected in my in-depth preseason analysis. I have, as a result, slightly raised their power rating. This rating reflects the teams' pure class with the best possible starting eleven – excluding "special" factors – such as motivation and fatigue caused by a tough schedule.. However,  I want to highlight that many of the Fulham players have performed above their normal level so far this season.. They have grabbed 11 points and have a goal difference of 10:8. I would be surprised if they were to finish in the top-10.. Let's remember that Fulham have won only two of their last six games, losing 2/6. In their last game they played pretty well, despite losing to Man City 2-3 on the road. Man City, without Rodri - who is their most important player – as well as one of the best midfielders in the world, K. De Bruyne, were strangely vulnerable defensively in this game.. Fulham, in fact, even generated more in xG.  However, this was mostly because of Man City being light years away from their best – not Fulham being excellent.. Even so, Man City recorded many more goal attempts (20-11), shots on goal and shots off target. Before this Fulham defeated Nottingham 1-0 away from home. They recorded three more goal attempts (14-11) and one more shot on goal than the hosts. In round 5 Fulham were good - beating the disappointing Newcastle 3-1 at home as underdogs according to the bookies.. Fulham recorded 22 goal attempts – the visitors managed 15. Fulham also had many more goal attempts – 11-4 and generated more in xG. Before this Fulham were very clear favourites on the betting market but lost to Preston, a team from the 2nd tier, 1-2  after penalties on the road. It was an EFL Cup clash. Fulham were disappointing, despite the 71% ball possession and recording more goal attempts, shots on goal (6-4) and shots off target. Before losing to Preston, Fulham locked horns with West Ham, at home as pretty clear favourites. Yes, Fulham recorded 21 goal attempts. West Ham, too, had their chances  - recording 11 goal attempts. Fulham, however, generated more in xG. It was, in the end, a 1-1 draw. In round 3 Fulham locked horns with a newly-promoted team, Ipswich, who played better than usual. It was a 1-1 draw. Fulham, the pretty favourites in this game, of course,  generated only marginally more in xG – 1.34-1.29. Ipswich, however, had more goal attempts and shots on goal!

GOOD LUCK!

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富勒姆VS阿斯顿维拉

北京时间周六晚，富勒姆和阿斯顿维拉将在英超联赛第8轮的比赛中在伦敦克雷文别墅打响。这显然是世界上最好的联赛！足球迷和我们这些认真的投注者——当然，他们心中有长期的利润——可以期待一场比这个联赛的平均水平更好的比赛。然而，我们还有另一个很棒的投注机会，可以延长4次选秀的连胜纪录，以及在这个联赛中10/12次选秀的连胜纪录。阿斯顿维拉表现出色，上赛季经常被博彩公司低估，本赛季似乎也是如此！上赛季他们以第四名的成绩结束了比赛，因此获得了传奇的欧洲冠军联赛的入场券。他们在欧冠联赛开局就取得了两场漂亮的胜利！在冠军联赛的首轮比赛中，阿斯顿维拉客场3-0横扫了一支不错的瑞士球队——年轻男孩队。伯明翰队的表现非常出色。预期进球数非常明确——2.45-0.39对维拉有利！在第二轮，他们在主场击败了世界排名前六的球队——德国豪门拜仁慕尼黑。博彩公司再一次低估了维拉，认为他们是大输家，他们的胜率在4.50-5.30左右。埃梅里带来了一种出色的防守战术，维拉球员将其执行得近乎完美！拜仁慕尼黑有67%的控球率，并且有更多的射门次数和射门次数，但是xG值只有1.29，这是拜仁本赛季相对较低的数字。是的，维拉需要一些运气才能拿到全部三分，但他们的表现，尤其是他们的门将，阿根廷的世界冠军埃米利亚诺·马丁内斯（Emiliano Martinez）非常出色！

别忘了维拉最近8场比赛一场都没输，6胜8负。博彩公司在这里又犯了一个错误，给富勒姆的赔率大约是2.30-2.40。根据我强烈的数据分析，维拉在这里应该是微弱的热门。维拉+0.5个进球障碍选项显然是明智的选择。是的，他们周二有一场欧冠比赛，但是意大利对手博洛尼亚并不是很强大，因为他们在上赛季之后失去了几名关键球员。我对维拉出色但经常被低估的主教练埃梅里的阵容轮换不抱太大期望。他在阿斯顿维拉的表现非常出色，在他到来之前，维拉是一支非常平庸的球队。让我们也记住维拉在两队之间的最后一场比赛中赢了四场。今年2月，维拉在这个球场2-1击败富勒姆，全场进球1.87。富勒姆的数字是1.13。2023年11月，维拉在主场3-1轻松击败富勒姆，在xG - 3.65-0.57创造了巨大的进球！让我们也记住，根据一个著名的和受人尊敬的德国网站，Transfermarkt.com，阿斯顿维拉是这里更大的球队-以非常大的差距！事实上，他们的球员估计总市值约为6.15亿欧元！富勒姆的总价是3.46亿美元——毫无疑问这个价格还是太高了！他们的三个球员被高估了。他们将失去卡洛斯·维尼修斯、昆卡和卢卡奇，他们都受伤了。至于维拉。Konsa和McGinn受伤了。卡马拉，明斯，奥纳纳和拉姆齐都有问题。幸运的是维拉——还有我们，因为我们打赌他们会避免失败——维拉有一个非常有深度的阵容，充满了有天赋的球员——渴望证明他们的技术！

维拉最近的一次失利是在8月24日对阵阿森纳，一支世界排名前四的球队，在主场0比2明显处于劣势，但在xG上比“枪手”产生了更多的比分——准确地说，是1.88比1.55。最后的比分确实是误导！在上一场比赛中，维拉在主场0比0战平曼联。由于之前的欧冠比赛，两支球队似乎都有些疲惫。比赛的节奏和水平比预期的要慢。尽管如此，比利亚的进球次数和射门次数（7比4）更多，但曼联的射门次数更多。xG值为0.87-0.63，对维拉有利。在此之前，维拉还远没有达到最佳状态，不得不在客场2-2战平伊普斯维奇。然而，我想强调的是伊普斯维奇可能打出了他们本赛季最好的一场比赛——他们的表现远远超出了他们的正常水平！比利亚在场上有65分钟表现得更好，但在下半场后半段，伊普斯维奇给比利亚制造了很大的压力，甚至有可能打进致胜的一球。维拉的表现在（英国）足球媒体上受到了很多批评，但作为一名职业足球投注者，我不会对这场比赛做出太多反应。在

上个月24日，维拉在客场2-1击败了维康比。在此之前，维拉在下半场表现强劲，在主场3-1击败狼队，当之无愧。然而，由于某些原因，维拉在这场比赛中远没有达到最佳状态。另一方面，客队打得出奇地好。即便如此，维拉的单场进球为2.21，狼队的单场进球为0.77。维拉目前以14分的积分排在积分榜第5位，分差为12:9。他们很有可能进入前五，甚至前四！目前排名前三的三支球队——利物浦、曼城和阿森纳——很可能会强大到难以击败。维拉肯定比富勒姆有更大的提升潜力。

是的，富勒姆本赛季的开局比我在季前深入分析中所预期的要好。因此，我稍微提高了它们的功率等级。这一排名反映了球队的纯粹等级，排除了“特殊”因素，如动力和紧张赛程造成的疲劳。然而，我想强调的是，本赛季到目前为止，许多富勒姆球员的表现都超出了他们的正常水平。他们拿到了11分，净胜球为10:8。如果他们能进入前十，我会很惊讶。让我们记住富勒姆在过去的六场比赛中只赢了两场，输了2/6。在上一场比赛中，他们踢得很好，尽管客场2-3输给了曼城。没有罗德里——他是曼城最重要的球员——以及世界上最好的中场之一德布鲁因，曼城在这场比赛的防守上出奇地脆弱。富勒姆，事实上，甚至产生更多的xG。然而，这主要是因为曼城离他们的最佳状态还有光年的距离，而不是富勒姆的出色。即便如此，曼城的进球次数（20胜11负）、射正和射偏次数都要多得多。在此之前富勒姆客场1-0击败诺丁汉。他们比东道主多出了3次射门（14胜11负）和1次射门。富勒姆在第5轮表现不错，在主场3-1击败了令人失望的纽卡斯尔。富勒姆有22次射门，而客队只有15次。富勒姆也有更多的进球机会，11比4，并且在xG上创造了更多的进球机会。在此之前，富勒姆在博彩市场上是非常明显的热门，但在客场点球后以1比2输给了普雷斯顿，这是一支来自第二梯队的球队。这是一场联赛杯的比赛。富勒姆的表现令人失望，尽管他们拥有71%的控球率，并且有更多的射门次数、射正（6比4）和射偏。在输给普雷斯顿之前，富勒姆在主场与西汉姆发生了激烈的冲突，双方都是夺冠热门。是的，富勒姆有21次进球。西汉姆也有机会，他们有11次射门。然而，富勒姆在xG产生了更多。最后，双方以1比1战平。在第三轮比赛中，富勒姆与一支新升级的球队伊普斯维奇发生了冲突，他们的表现比平时要好。双方1比1战平。富勒姆，这场比赛中最受欢迎的球队，当然，在xG - 1.34-1.29中只产生了一点点多。然而，伊普斯维奇有更多的进球尝试和射门！

好运！