Betis is my favorite here.

Osasuna, in my opinion, has been overperforming a lot. They have been the second most effective team in the league (after Barcelona), with a positive expected goals difference of 2.29. This means they have scored more than two goals more than expected.

They’ve been lucky in some games, while most of their opponents have been from the relegation or mid-table zone. Yes, they beat Barcelona, but they were also completely outplayed by Girona, registering only 0.07 expected goals and no shots on target.

Although Osasuna is currently 5th in the league, I don’t see them finishing in European positions, as I believe their coach isn’t suited for a team like Osasuna due to his defensive style.

At home they are particularly strong with 4 straight wins and one draw against Leganes in the first round.

However, Betis is the main reason for my pick. Unlike Osasuna, Betis has been underperforming. They have a great squad, are very competitive, and difficult to beat (are the third team in the league with less shots on target received), but they’ve struggled to convert their chances. They are the team with the largest gap between expected goals and actual goals scored; they should have scored 7.52 more goals, which is significant.

Despite this, they are generating chances and have the quality, so I’m confident they will improve soon. Their upcoming games are against Atlético Madrid and Athletic (away), so they can’t afford to drop more points, especially coming off a derby defeat.

Key player Lo Celso is injured and most probably winger Fornals will play there. Marc Roca is also injured but I'm not worried about it as he has been terrible lately.

Additionally, the international break could negatively affect Osasuna (as they were on a good run) and positively impact Betis (who were on a bad run).

Last season, with Osasuna having the same team and a better coach, Betis won both matches (0-2 and 2-1).

I expect a tight game, but I don’t see Osasuna winning here. A draw is possible, but I see Betis as having more potential and better players to secure the win.

贝蒂斯是我最喜欢的。

在我看来，奥萨苏纳表现得太过出色了。他们是联赛中效率第二高的球队（仅次于巴塞罗那），预期净胜球为2.29个。这意味着他们比预期多进了两个以上的球。

他们在一些比赛中运气不错，而他们的大多数对手都来自降级区或中游区。是的，他们击败了巴塞罗那，但他们也完全被赫罗纳击败，他们只有0.07个预期进球，没有射正。

虽然奥萨苏纳目前在联赛中排名第五，但我认为他们不会进入欧洲联赛，因为我认为他们的教练不适合像奥萨苏纳这样的球队，因为他的防守风格。

在主场，他们在首轮对阵莱加内斯的比赛中取得了4连胜1平的成绩，表现尤为强劲。

然而，贝蒂斯是我选择它的主要原因。与奥萨苏纳不同，贝蒂斯一直表现不佳。他们有一个伟大的阵容，非常有竞争力，很难被击败（是联盟中第三支射门次数更少的球队），但他们一直在努力转化机会。他们是预期进球和实际进球差距最大的球队；他们本应该多进7.52球，这很重要。

尽管如此，他们创造了机会，也有实力，所以我相信他们很快就会进步。他们接下来的比赛是对阵马德里航空公司和竞技（客场），所以他们不能再丢分了，尤其是在德比失利之后。

关键球员洛·塞尔索受伤了，最有可能的是边锋福尔纳尔斯将踢这个位置。马克·罗卡也受伤了，但我并不担心，因为他最近的表现很糟糕。

此外，国际比赛日可能会对奥萨苏纳产生负面影响（因为他们表现不错），对贝蒂斯产生积极影响（他们表现不佳）。

上赛季，在奥萨苏纳拥有同样的球队和更好的教练的情况下，贝蒂斯赢得了两场比赛（0-2和2-1）。

我预计会有一场激烈的比赛，但我不认为奥萨苏纳会赢。平局是有可能的，但我认为贝蒂斯有更多的潜力和更好的球员来确保胜利。