Team news and prediction 德甲 多特蒙德VS圣保利
2024-10-18

Milos

外籍分析师

解读理由:

Borussia Dortmund will aim to get back to winning ways when they face newly-promoted St Pauli at Signal Iduna Park on Friday in their seventh Bundesliga match of the 2024-25 season. Nuri Sahin’s side currently sit in seventh place with 10 points after six matchweeks, having recently lost 2-1 to Union Berlin. Meanwhile, St Pauli are struggling, sitting 15th in the table with just four points, teetering above the relegation zone.

Dortmund's start to the season under Sahin appeared promising with four victories from their first five fixtures. However, inconsistency has plagued them lately, suffering two losses in their last four outings, including a crushing 5-1 defeat to Stuttgart on September 22. Despite bouncing back with wins, including a 7-1 thrashing of Celtic in the Champions League, BVB stumbled again with a disappointing loss to Union Berlin. Sahin openly criticized his team's performance, particularly their first-half display, where they allowed their opponents too much control and failed to defend effectively.

This inconsistency has led to a patchy run of form, with Dortmund winning just two of their last five Bundesliga games, drawing one, and losing two. In this period, they have conceded 11 goals while scoring 10. Yet, their home record remains a point of pride, having won eight of their last nine games at Signal Iduna Park, scoring 32 goals and conceding only nine in that stretch.

St Pauli, on the other hand, have found life in the top flight challenging after their promotion. They sit level on points with Hoffenheim, who are in the relegation playoff spot. Alexander Blessin's men come into the game after a 3-0 defeat to Mainz, a match where they had numerous shots but failed to create any significant chances while conceding three big opportunities on just eight shots from their opponents. St Pauli’s attack has been toothless, with just four goals in six matches, the lowest in the Bundesliga, which remains a major concern for Blessin as they fight to find their footing in the top division.

St Pauli’s struggles began with three consecutive defeats, including a 3-1 loss to Augsburg, and their away form has been poor, losing two of their three road games so far this season. Historically, they have not fared well on the road in the Bundesliga, as seen in their 2010-11 season when they lost 11 of their 17 away matches.

Team news for Dortmund includes the continued absence of key players such as Yan Couto, Julien Duranville, and Giovanni Reyna until November, while Karim Adeyemi is out until late November. Niklas Sule and Maximilian Beier are also doubtful for the match, with Sahin likely to pair Waldemar Anton with Nico Schlotterbeck in defense, while Pascal Gross and Marcel Sabitzer could anchor the midfield.

St Pauli are dealing with their own injury issues, especially in the goalkeeper department, with Soren Ahlers, Sascha Burchert, and Ben Alexander Voll all sidelined. Offensive players Elias Saad and Simon Zoller are also out, leaving Blessin with limited options upfront. As a result, Vasilj Oladapo Afolayan, Johannes Eggestein, and Morgan Guilavogui are expected to form the front three.

Given Dortmund’s superior home form and St Pauli’s offensive struggles, it’s difficult to envision anything other than a Dortmund victory. I predict a 2-0 win for BVB, as St Pauli's attack lacks the firepower to seriously trouble Sahin’s men, especially on Dortmund's home turf.



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多特蒙德将于周五在伊杜纳公园球场迎战新升班马圣保利,这将是他们2024-25赛季的第七场德甲比赛。努里·沙欣的球队在六个比赛周后以10分排名第七,最近他们以2比1输给了柏林联盟。与此同时,圣保利正在苦苦挣扎,仅以4分排名第15位,在降级区上方摇摇欲坠。

在沙欣的带领下,多特蒙德本赛季的开局看起来很有希望,他们在前五场比赛中取得了四场胜利。然而,最近的不稳定一直困扰着他们,在最近的四场比赛中遭遇了两场失利,其中包括9月22日以5比1惨败给斯图加特。尽管在欧冠联赛中以7-1大胜凯尔特人,但BVB再次遭遇挫折,令人失望地输给了柏林联盟。沙欣公开批评了他的球队的表现,特别是他们上半场的表现,他们给对手太多的控制,未能有效防守。

这种不稳定导致了多特蒙德最近五场德甲比赛中只赢了两场,一平两负。在此期间,他们丢了11个球,进了10个球。然而,他们的主场战绩仍然是值得骄傲的,他们在伊杜纳公园信号球场的近9场比赛中赢了8场,进了32球,只丢了9球。

另一方面,圣保利在升级后发现在顶级联赛的生活充满了挑战。他们和霍芬海姆在积分上持平,霍芬海姆进入了降级附加赛。亚历山大·布莱辛的队员们在0比3输给美因茨之后进入了比赛,这场比赛他们有很多射门机会,但却没有创造任何重要的机会,而对手只有8次射门,他们就失去了3次重要的机会。圣保利的进攻毫无杀伤力,在6场比赛中只进了4个球,是德甲联赛中进球最少的,这对布莱辛来说仍然是他们在顶级联赛中寻找立足点的主要关注点。

圣保利的困境始于连续三场失利,其中包括1 - 3负于奥格斯堡,他们的客场状态也很糟糕,本赛季到目前为止,他们的三场客场比赛输掉了两场。从历史上看,他们在德甲的客场表现不佳,2010-11赛季,他们在17场客场比赛中输掉了11场。

多特蒙德的球队消息包括库托、杜兰维尔和雷纳等关键球员将缺阵至11月,而阿德耶米将缺阵至11月底。斯科拉斯和贝尔也不确定能否在这场比赛中出场,沙欣可能会让安东和施洛特贝克搭档防守,而帕斯卡尔·格罗斯和马塞尔·萨比策可能会成为中场的主力。

圣保利正在处理他们自己的伤病问题,特别是在门将方面,索伦·阿勒斯、萨沙·伯切特和本·亚历山大·沃尔都缺阵。进攻球员伊莱亚斯·萨阿德和西蒙·佐勒也将缺席,这使得布莱辛的锋线选择有限。因此,瓦西利·奥拉达波·阿弗拉扬、约翰内斯·埃格斯坦和摩根·吉拉沃吉有望组成前场三巨头。

考虑到多特蒙德出色的主场状态和圣保利的进攻挣扎,很难想象除了多特蒙德的胜利之外还有什么。我预测BVB会以2比0获胜,因为圣保利的进攻缺乏足够的火力来严重困扰沙欣的球员,尤其是在多特蒙德的主场。

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