Finland VS Ireland

Finland welcome Ireland for this UEFA Nations League League B Group 2 round 3 clash at Helsinki Olympic Stadium early Friday morning Beijing time. A match of poor  quality by the Nations League B standards is on the cards here. Ireland are in 62nd place in the FIFA Ranking which is too high. 66-67th would be a more accurate place in the ranking for them.. Finland, on the other hand, are in  64th place which is also too high. Ireland were very disappointing in the EURO 2024 Qualification, taking only six points! They were able to take points only from Gibraltar, a very bad team. Gibraltar's goal difference was 0:41 and did not take any points! Ireland have won only one of their last eight games. In their last match they lost Greece 0-2 at home after a lame performance. Indeed, Greece recorded more goal attempts, shots on goal, total passes, completed passes and attacks. Ireland generated a pathetic 0.26 in expected goals (xG). Before this they faced England at home and lost 0-2. However, Ireland did not have much of a chance to take even a draw. England, despite missing some important players – for example Manchester City's Phil Foden -  scored twice in the first half. Let's remember that  Foden was the Player of the Season in the English Premier League last season. The two quick goals seemed to demoralize the Irish players quite a bit, which is not a good sign.. In the second half England lowered the tempo - aiming to stop Ireland from scoring. England had over 70% ball possession and generated 2.43 in xG. Ireland's number was only 0.33! England are, of course, a strong team but I was still disappointed with Ireland's very lame offense. Before this, in June, Ireland were crushed by Portugal. 3-0 was the final score and Ireland managed to record just one shot on goal. Portugal's number was nine. The main rationale behind this pick is to oppose Ireland – as they are – once again – overrated by the bookmaker!  Indeed, as a Finnish professional bettor I know our national team and the players very well! I'm not excited about the situation our national team -  known as "Huuhkajat" -  is at the moment.. We will take a look at them in the 2nd chapter but before that I want to highlight that Ireland have lost four of their last five away matches, beating only Gibraltar. Finland, on the other hand, have performed hugely better at home than on the road in recent years! Despite the lame recent performances a quite big number of Finns are expected to be cheering for the team at the stadium. The "ultras" - a large group of Finnish fans called "Pohjoiskaarre" is, rather surprisingly, one of the biggest and loudest in the European national team football scene! Yes, by pure class Ireland are the marginally better team but at home Finland deserve to be narrow favourites. The bookies disagree - offering Ireland odds of only around 2.60-2.65 to win. The goal expectancy here is low and the probability of a draw is exceptionally high. We will take the Finland +0.5 goals handicap option.

Finland – as fully expected – lost to England in their last game - 0-2 at Wembley Stadium in London. Finland, however, had two promising counter attacks in the first half when the score was still 0-0.  A 0-1 goal could possibly have had a significant effect on the game..  Indeed, Topi Keskinen, 21, who plays for Aberdeen in Scotland, is a very fast player even by international standards and wasted a very promising scoring chance! He selfishly decided to shoot himself ( rather low xG)  but should definitely have passed the ball to Teemu Pukki, a former Norwich striker even in the Premier League. Pukki most probably would have netted the ball! England, of course, were superior in this game as a whole, generating 1.98 in xG. Finland, on the other hand, could not attack in an organized way at all in the second half.  Finland are in a rebuilding phase and can be a much better team in 2-3 years from now.. However, with many new, mostly inexperienced players at this level, they are not a tactically very mature team at the moment. They can, however, defend at a decent level against a team of Ireland's caliber! Markku Kanerva's starting eleven is a big question mark here but in addition to Pukki and Keskinen, Finland do have some goal scoring potential in for example an in-form Venezia (Italian Serie A) striker, Joel Pohjanpalo and the promising Oliver Antman. Even so, the level Finland were at in 2018-2021, even qualifying for the EURO 2020 - which was played in 2021 - is only a "distant memory" now.. Even so, the bookmakers have now overreacted to Finland's lame performances and the absence of  midfielder Kaan Kairinen. He has been excellent with Sparta Prague recently, even scoring twice in the UEFA Champions League this season!

Before losing in England, Finland were, in all honesty, disappointing losing to Greece 0-3 on the road. The Greeks, however, played very well in front of their fans. The Finns did, however, play at a decent level for the first approximately 20 minutes but after that Greece were the much better team on the pitch, playing a tactically very smart game.. Finland generated only 0.23 in xG. Before this Finland played a 2-2 in Scotland but the Scots were still the better team on the pitch. They recorded many more goal attempts (16-6), shots on goal and shots off target. Finland started the EURO 2024 Qualification surprisingly well, but also had a touch of luck on their side.. However, in the end they finished in 3rd place and lost the important games - in terms of qualification - against Slovenia (0-3) and Kazakhstan 1-2. Let's still not forget that Slovenia even qualified for the Playoffs in the EURO 2024, even forcing Portugal into penalties.. Thanks to Finland's good results in the (previous) Nations League – played before the EURO 2024 Qualification started – Finland still had an opportunity to earn a ticket for the EURO 2024 by beating Wales - and Poland in the "extra" Qualification. However, they lost to Wales 1-4 away from home after a lame performance! I want to highlight that Wales are of course a much better team than Ireland!

芬兰VS爱尔兰

北京时间周五凌晨，在赫尔辛基奥林匹克体育场举行的欧足联国家联赛B组第二轮第三轮比赛中，芬兰队将迎来爱尔兰队。一场以B级联赛的标准来看质量很差的比赛是有可能的。爱尔兰在国际足联排名中排名第62位，这个排名太高了。对他们来说，排名第66-67位更准确。另一方面，芬兰排在第64位，这也太高了。爱尔兰在2024年欧洲杯预选赛中表现非常令人失望，只拿了6分!他们只能从一支非常糟糕的球队直布罗陀那里拿分。直布罗陀的净胜球是0:41，没有拿到任何分数!爱尔兰队在过去的八场比赛中只赢了一场。在上一场比赛中，由于表现不佳，他们在主场0-2输给了希腊。事实上，希腊的进球次数、射门次数、总传球次数、完成传球次数和进攻次数都更多。爱尔兰队的预期进球数只有可怜的0.26。在此之前，他们在主场面对英格兰，以0比2输掉了比赛。然而，爱尔兰甚至没有多少机会取得平局。英格兰队尽管失去了一些重要的球员，比如曼城队的菲尔·福登，但在上半场梅开二度。让我们记住，福登是上赛季英超联赛的最佳球员。这两个快速进球似乎使爱尔兰球员士气低落，这不是一个好兆头。下半场，英格兰放慢了节奏，目的是阻止爱尔兰进球。英格兰控球率超过70%，全场进球2.43。爱尔兰的数字只有0.33!英格兰队当然是一支强队，但我仍然对爱尔兰队蹩脚的进攻感到失望。在此之前的6月，爱尔兰被葡萄牙击败，最终比分是3比0，爱尔兰只射进了一球。葡萄牙的排名是9。这个选择背后的主要理由是反对爱尔兰-因为他们-再一次-被庄家高估了!的确，作为一名芬兰职业赌徒，我非常了解我们的国家队和球员!我对我们被称为“Huuhkajat”的国家队目前的处境并不感到兴奋。我们将在第二章中介绍他们，但在此之前我想强调的是，爱尔兰在最近的五场客场比赛中输掉了四场，只击败了直布罗陀。另一方面，芬兰近年来在主场的表现要比客场好得多!尽管最近表现不佳，但预计会有相当多的芬兰人在体育场为球队加油。令人惊讶的是，“超级”——一大群被称为“Pohjoiskaarre”的芬兰球迷，是欧洲国家队赛场上规模最大、声音最响亮的球迷之一!是的，从纯粹的等级来看，爱尔兰队稍微好一点，但在主场，芬兰队应该是最受欢迎的球队。博彩公司对此不以为然，他们给出的赔率只有2.60-2.65。这里的进球期望值很低，平局的可能性非常高。我们将采用芬兰+0.5个进球障碍选项。

不出所料，芬兰队在上一场比赛中在伦敦温布利体育场以0比2输给了英格兰队。然而，芬兰队在上半场0-0的情况下，有两次很有希望的反击。一个0比1的进球可能会对比赛产生重大影响。事实上，效力于苏格兰阿伯丁队的21岁球员托皮·凯斯基宁(Topi Keskinen)即使以国际标准衡量也是一名速度非常快的球员，他浪费了一个非常有希望的得分机会!他自私地决定射自己(相当低的xG)，但绝对应该把球传给特姆·普基，一个前诺维奇前锋，甚至在英超。普基很可能会把球打进!当然，英格兰队在这场比赛中总体上更胜一筹，xG得分为1.98。另一方面，芬兰在下半场完全没有组织进攻。芬兰正处于重建阶段，2-3年后会成为一支更好的球队。然而，在这个级别上有很多新人，大多是没有经验的球员，他们目前在战术上还不是一支非常成熟的球队。然而，面对爱尔兰这样的球队，他们的防守水平还是不错的!卡内瓦的首发11人阵容是个大问号，但除了普基和凯斯基宁，芬兰确实有一些进球潜力，比如状态良好的威尼斯前锋乔尔·波扬帕洛和前途无量的奥利弗·安特曼。即便如此，芬兰在2018-2021年的水平，甚至是2021年举行的2020年欧洲杯的资格，现在都只是“遥远的记忆”。即便如此，博彩公司现在对芬兰队差劲的表现和中场缺阵反应过度

在输给英格兰之前，老实说，芬兰队在客场0-3输给了希腊，令人失望。然而，希腊人在他们的球迷面前表现得非常出色。芬兰人确实在前20分钟踢得不错，但在那之后，希腊队在球场上表现得更好，踢了一场非常聪明的战术。芬兰在2009年仅为0.23。在此之前，芬兰队与苏格兰队打了一场2比2的比赛，但苏格兰队在球场上仍然表现得更好。他们记录了更多的射门次数(16-6次)，射正和射偏。芬兰队在2024年欧洲杯预选赛的开局出人意料地好，但他们也有一点运气。然而，最终他们以第三名的成绩结束了比赛，并输掉了重要的比赛-斯洛文尼亚(0-3)和哈萨克斯坦(1-2)。让我们不要忘记斯洛文尼亚甚至有资格进入2024年欧洲杯的季后赛，甚至迫使葡萄牙进入点球大战。由于芬兰队在(之前的)国家联赛(在2024年欧洲杯预选赛开始之前)取得了好成绩，芬兰队仍然有机会在“加时赛”中击败威尔士和波兰，获得2024年欧洲杯的入场券。然而，他们在客场1-4不敌威尔士，表现差劲!我想强调的是，威尔士队当然比爱尔兰队强得多!