Everton VS Newcastle United

Everton host Newcastle for this English Premier League round 7 battle at Goodison Park in Liverpool very early Sunday morning Beijing time. This is clearly the best league in the world! Football fans and us serious bettors – with a long-term profit in mind, of course – can expect a game of rather average quality by this league's standards here.. However, we have a fine betting opportunity to make more profit. We have won 9/11 last picks betting on this league. I will post more high-quality picks on this league later today. Everton currently sit in 16th place in this league with a total of 20 clubs. There is no denying the fact that Everton have not quite met the expectations performance-wise but they have also had some bad luck so far this season! Everton have lost a lead by a margin of two goals twice this season! Everton have grabbed only four points but their number of expected points (xPTS) is bigger - 5.87. They have scored seven goals and have conceded 15 goals. However, their number of expected goals (xG) is 8.56 and the number of expected goals allowed (xGA) is only 11.24. Everton have the potential to climb up the standings significantly as the season progresses.. I want to highlight that  Everton have very loyal and loud fans! Newcastle, on the other hand, are a hugely better team at home than on the road. They often play too passive football away from home.. Everton are without Broja, Chermiti and Coleman here. Branthwaite, Gueye and Patteron are questionable. As for Newcastle, Btoman, Isak, Lascelels, Miley and Wilso are out. Targett is questionable. With the expected lineups, even taking the substantial home advantage into account, Newcastke are definitely the favourites here – but only very narrow! The odds of around 2.15 offered by the big bookies on the away win  - at the time of writing this preview are clearly too low! The Everton +0.5 goals handicap option is the smart choice here!

Let's remember that Newcastle have not been able to defeat Everton in the last two games between the two teams. Both matches were Premier League games. In December 2023 Everton won 3-0 at this stadium after generating an impressive 3.34 in xG. They also recorded over 20 goal attempts and many more shots on goal and shots off target than Newcastle. In April it was a 1-1 draw at St. James' Park. In their last game Everton defeated Crystal Palace 2-1 at home. It was coming back from 0-1 in the second half. McNeil scored both goals. Everton's number of xG was 1.45 – Crystal Palace managed 0.80. Before this Everton took a point against Leicester away from home.. They were priced around 3.60 to win by the bookmakers at the time of kickoff. Their odds went up unbelievably significantly from the starting odds - even considering that there was a flu "epidemic" within the Everton team..  Even so, Everton recorded many more goal attempts (16-12), shots on goal and also generated more in xG – 1.45-0.93. Both teams had seven shots off goal. In round 4 Everton challenged Aston Villa well – despite losing 2-3 away from home. I want to highlight that Aston Villa finished in 4th place last season and play in the UEFA Champions League (UCL) this season! They even defeated Bayern Munchen, one of the biggest teams in the world, 1-0 at home in the UCL a few days ago! Aston Villa were of course very clear favourites in this game against Everton. Everton took a 2-0 lead through McNeil's and Calvert-Lewin's goals in the half an hour of play but J. Duran scored the 3-2 goal in the 76th minute. I liked the way Everton fought in this match but their defence was simply not good enough to stop an opponent of Aston Villa's level. In round 3 a bizarre match took place at Goodison Park.. Everton were leading 2-0 till the 86th minute – performing very well - but still lost 2-3 in the end! They probably thought that the "match was over" at 2-0, which (seemed to) result in losing focus.. However, Everton were priced around 3.00 to win the game by the bookies but recorded more goal attempts, shots on target and shots off target – 10-7. They should have taken at least a point from this game! Everton have won a total of two of their last six games. They crushed Doncaster 3-0 at home on the 27th of August. It was an EFL Cup clash.

Newcastle have won one of their last three games in all competitions - and one of their last three matches in the Premier League. Indeed, they beat a very small team, AFC Wimbledon, on Tuesday (local time) at home 1-0. The visitors play in the League Two, the fourth tier! Newcastle were priced around 1.10 to win in the 90 minutes of play. I will not give this win over a lowly opponent a lot of emphasis. Before this Newcastle took a point from Manchester City (1-1) at home, playing quite well in the second half. However, Man City were without De Bruyne and Rodri and were, mainly because of these absences, very far from their best level! Rodri is Man City's most important player, as long-term statistics with/without prove. He is one of the best footballers in the world! It was easy to see how much of an effect missing both of these world-class midfielders affected City's (offensive) game.. Even so, Man City had 62% ball possession and recorded many more goal attempts, shots on goal, shots off target and total passes. The xG numbers were 1.32-1.28 in Man City's favour but 0.79 of the hosts' xG was generated from A. Gordon's penalty kick. In round5, on the 21st of last month, Fulham crushed Newcastle 3-1 at home as underdogs on the betting market. They recorded a fine 22 goal attempts and many more goal attempts – 11-4 to be precise. The xG numbers were 3.04-1.21 in Fulham's favour! Fulham are a somewhat mediocre team in terms of pure class. In round 4 Newcastle beat the rock-bottom team at the moment, Wolves, 2-1 on the road as clear favourites according to the bookies, of course. However, the ball possession % was almost 50-50 and Newcastle recorded just one more shot on goal – 6-5. The xG numbers were 1.44-1.43 in their favour. In round 3 Newcastle defeated Tottenham at home 2-1 but Spurs had 66% ball possession and recorded many more goal attempts (20-9), shots on goal and shots off target. They also generated more than Newcastle in xG. Newcastle are currently in 7th place with 11 points in their pocket but this flatters them quite a lot. Indeed, their number of xPTS is only 5.23! Their score difference is 8:7 but their xG is 7.77 and xGA is 12.67.

GOOD LUCK!

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埃弗顿VS纽卡斯尔联队

北京时间周日凌晨，英超第7轮埃弗顿将在利物浦古迪逊公园主场迎战纽卡斯尔。这显然是世界上最好的联赛!足球迷和我们这些认真的投注者——当然，他们心中有长期的利润——可以期待一场以这个联赛的标准来看质量相当一般的比赛。然而，我们有一个很好的机会来赚取更多的利润。我们赢了9/11的最后一次选择赌这个联盟。我将在今天晚些时候发布更多高质量的选秀。埃弗顿目前在这个联赛中排名第16位，总共有20家俱乐部。不可否认，埃弗顿在表现上并没有达到预期，但他们本赛季到目前为止运气也不太好!埃弗顿本赛季已经两次以两球的差距失去领先优势!埃弗顿只拿到了4分，但是他们的期望积分(xPTS)更高——5.87分。他们进了7球，丢了15球。然而，他们的预期进球数(xG)是8.56，而预期进球数(xGA)只有11.24。随着赛季的进行，埃弗顿有潜力在积分榜上大幅攀升。我想强调的是，埃弗顿拥有非常忠诚和响亮的球迷!另一方面，纽卡斯尔在主场的表现要比客场好得多。他们经常在客场踢被动的足球。埃弗顿没有了布罗哈、切尔米蒂和科尔曼。布兰斯韦特、盖耶和佩顿都值得怀疑。至于纽卡斯尔，布托曼、伊萨克、拉塞尔斯、麦莉和威尔索都将出局。塔吉特值得怀疑。考虑到预期的阵容，即使考虑到主场的优势，纽卡斯尔在这里绝对是最受欢迎的——但只是微弱的优势!在写这篇预告的时候，大博彩公司提供的客场胜利的赔率大约是2.15，这显然太低了!埃弗顿+0.5个进球障碍选项是明智的选择!

让我们记住，纽卡斯尔在两队之间的最近两场比赛中都没能击败埃弗顿。两场比赛都是英超联赛。2023年12月，埃弗顿在这个球场取得了令人印象深刻的3.34分，以3比0获胜。他们也有超过20次的进球尝试，射正和射偏的次数比纽卡斯尔多得多。今年4月，双方在圣詹姆斯公园球场1-1战平。在上一场比赛中，埃弗顿主场2-1击败了水晶宫。下半场比分从0-1逆转过来。麦克尼尔两个球都进了。埃弗顿的xG值是1.45，水晶宫是0.80。在此之前，埃弗顿客场对莱斯特城取了一分。开球时，博彩公司给他们开出了3.6英镑的胜率。他们的赔率比开始的赔率高得令人难以置信——即使考虑到埃弗顿队内部有流感“流行病”。即便如此，埃弗顿的进球次数(16-12次)和射正次数都更多，而且在xG(1.45-0.93)上也创造了更多的进球。两队都有7次射门偏门。在第4轮埃弗顿挑战阿斯顿维拉，尽管客场2-3输掉了比赛。我想强调的是，阿斯顿维拉上赛季排名第四，本赛季还参加了欧洲冠军联赛!几天前，他们甚至在欧冠联赛主场1-0击败了世界上最大的球队之一拜仁慕尼黑!在与埃弗顿的比赛中，阿斯顿维拉显然是夺冠热门。在半小时的比赛中，埃弗顿凭借麦克尼尔和卡尔弗特-卢因的进球以2-0领先，但在第76分钟，杜兰以3-2的比分破门。我喜欢埃弗顿在这场比赛中的战斗方式，但他们的防守根本不足以阻挡阿斯顿维拉这样水平的对手。第三轮在古迪逊公园球场上演了一场离奇的比赛。埃弗顿在第86分钟前一直以2-0领先，表现非常好，但最后还是以2-3输掉了比赛!他们可能认为2比0“比赛结束了”，这(似乎)导致注意力不集中。然而，博彩公司对埃弗顿的胜率估计在3.00左右，但埃弗顿的进球次数、射正和射偏都更多——10比7。他们至少应该从这场比赛中得到一分!埃弗顿在过去的六场比赛中只赢了两场。8月27日，他们在主场3-0大胜唐卡斯特。这是一场联赛杯的比赛。

纽卡斯尔在最近的三场比赛中赢了一场，在最近的三场英超比赛中也赢了一场。事实上，他们在当地时间周二主场以1比0击败了一支非常小的球队——温布尔登足球俱乐部。客队在乙级联赛，第四梯队!纽卡斯尔在90分钟的比赛中获胜的价格在1.10左右。我不会给这场战胜一个卑微的对手太多的强调。是

在此之前，纽卡斯尔在主场从曼城(1-1)那里取了一分，下半场踢得相当好。然而，曼城没有德布鲁因和罗德里，主要是因为他们的缺席，离他们的最佳水平还差得很远!罗德里是曼城最重要的球员，无论有没有长期数据证明。他是世界上最好的足球运动员之一!很容易看出这两位世界级中场的缺阵对曼城(进攻)的影响有多大。即便如此，曼城有62%的控球率，并且有更多的射门次数、射正次数、射偏次数和总传球次数。曼城的xG值为1.32-1.28，但主队的xG值中有0.79来自戈登的点球。在上个月21日的第五轮比赛中，富勒姆在主场3-1击败纽卡斯尔，在博彩市场上处于劣势。他们一共尝试了22次进球，更准确地说是11比4。富勒姆的xG数据是3.04-1.21 !富勒姆纯粹是一支平庸的球队。在第四轮比赛中，纽卡斯尔以2-1的比分击败了目前排名垫底的狼队，当然，根据博彩公司的说法，狼队显然是夺冠热门。然而，控球率几乎是50-50，纽卡斯尔只多射了一次，比分是6-5。他们的xG值为1.44-1.43。在第三轮比赛中，纽卡斯尔主场2-1击败热刺，但热刺拥有66%的控球率，并且有更多的射门次数(20-9)，射正和射偏。他们在xG的收入也超过了纽卡斯尔。纽卡斯尔目前以11分的成绩排在第7位，但这让他们很高兴。实际上，他们的xpt数量只有5.23个!他们的成绩差距是8:7，但他们的xG是7.77,xGA是12.67。

好运！