Two good picks for La Liga! 西甲串关
2024-09-28

Borja

外籍分析师

解读理由:

OSASUNA - BARCELONA

Although Osasuna has managed to accumulate points so far, they haven't been convincing. The team changed their coach this season, and I believe the new manager lacks the necessary quality, as their tactics have been poor.

Osasuna has won games more due to luck, individual brilliance, or weak opposition rather than through solid team performances. So far, they have faced mostly relegation candidates, with the only strong opponent being Girona, against whom they suffered a 4-0 defeat, generating just 0.07 xG and failing to register a single shot on target.

Their best player recently has been the goalkeeper, which is a clear indicator of how many chances they are conceding.

On the other hand, Barcelona has been the best team in the league. They’ve won all their games with solid and convincing performances. It seems that Flick has found the right formula for success at the club.

Despite dealing with numerous injuries (including Araujo, Gavi, Fermin, Christensen, ter Stegen, Bernal, and Olmo), the lineup remains strong, particularly in attack, with players like Yamal, Lewandowski, and Pedri all in top form.

Barcelona is scoring plenty of goals (23 in 7 games) and is brimming with confidence. Osasuna is likely to adopt a defensive approach in this match, but I expect them to create very few chances.

Barcelona should dominate this game, and given the current form of both teams, it should be an easy victory for the visitors as they continue to lead the table.

They have won the last 5 games played against Osasuna, 3 of them last season (League + Supercup).

REAL SOCIEDAD - VALENCIA

Real Sociedad is in dire need of a victory. They haven't won in their last six games and have only secured one win this season, thanks to a brilliant individual effort by Take Kubo against Espanyol (0-1). However, there have been some positive signs in the last two matches.

Against Valladolid, they created numerous opportunities (1.41 expected goals) and deserved to win but lacked efficiency in front of goal, resulting in a goalless draw. In their midweek match against Nice, they played well in the first half but were outplayed in the second.

In the midweek game, Real Sociedad rotated the squad, giving some B team youngsters a chance as starters. For this match against Valencia, their best lineup is expected, including players like Brais Méndez, Sucic, Oskarsson, Javi López, Take Kubo, and Sergio Gómez.

Real Sociedad has faced two main issues so far: the first is their defensive record, with 8 goals conceded in 8 games. However, these problems are fixable—three of those goals came from throw-ins in their favor, two from penalties, and the rest from defensive errors. If they can maintain focus in defense, the number of goals conceded should decrease, as opponents aren't creating many chances against them.

The second issue is their lack of goals, with only 4 scored so far. Despite this, they've generated plenty of opportunities, especially in games against Madrid (1.43 xG) and Valladolid (1.41 xG). They've simply been unlucky in front of goal.

Real Sociedad is a team that should be in the top 8, so a victory here is almost essential.

On the other hand, Valencia has been struggling this season. While they don't have one of the three worst squads in the league, they're caught in a negative spiral that could impact them, particularly as they are a very young and inexperienced team. Unlike last season, their defense, which was once their strength, has been shaky. They’ve been easy to break down, though they showed some improvement in their last two games, where they earned four points and kept a clean sheet. The reason for this could be the long term injuried of their two best defenders: captain Gaya and Diakhaby.

Valencia needs to be at their best to win games, especially away from home, where they need to perform at least at 90% to secure points. So far this season, they’ve only managed to pick up points at home.

This match presents a perfect opportunity for Real Sociedad to dominate and rediscover their best form against a vulnerable Valencia side, both defensively and mentally. Sociedad won both encounters with Valencia last season, and I expect them to do the same here.



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奥萨苏纳-巴塞罗那

虽然奥萨苏纳到目前为止已经积累了积分,但他们并没有令人信服。这支球队本赛季换了教练,我认为新教练缺乏必要的素质,因为他们的战术一直很糟糕。

奥萨苏纳赢得比赛更多的是靠运气、个人才华或弱对手,而不是靠扎实的团队表现。到目前为止,他们面对的大多是保级候选球队,唯一的强敌是赫罗纳,他们以0比4惨败赫罗纳,射门命中率仅为0.07,一球未射正。

他们最近最好的球员是守门员,这清楚地表明他们丢了多少机会。

另一方面,巴塞罗那一直是联赛中最好的球队。他们以稳定和令人信服的表现赢得了所有的比赛。弗里克似乎已经找到了在俱乐部取得成功的正确方法。

尽管面对众多伤病(包括阿劳霍、加维、费尔明、克里斯滕森、特尔斯特根、伯纳尔和奥尔莫),球队的阵容依然强大,尤其是在进攻端,亚马尔、莱万多夫斯基和佩德里都处于最佳状态。

巴塞罗那打进了很多球(7场23球),充满了信心。奥萨苏纳很可能在这场比赛中采取防守的方式,但我预计他们创造的机会很少。

巴塞罗那应该主宰这场比赛,考虑到两队目前的状态,这对客队来说应该是一场轻松的胜利,因为他们继续领跑积分榜。

他们赢了最近5场对奥萨苏纳的比赛,其中3场是上赛季(联赛+超级杯)。

皇家社会-瓦伦西亚

皇家社会迫切需要一场胜利。他们在最近的六场比赛中没有获胜,本赛季只获得了一场胜利,这要归功于Kubo Kubo在对阵西班牙人(0-1)的比赛中出色的个人表现。然而,在最近两场比赛中出现了一些积极的迹象。

在与巴利亚多利德的比赛中,他们创造了很多机会(预期进球1.41个),理应取得胜利,但在门前缺乏效率,最终以0比0战平。在周中对阵尼斯的比赛中,他们上半场踢得很好,但下半场却被击败了。

在周中的比赛中,皇家社会轮换了阵容,给了一些B队的年轻人首发的机会。在与瓦伦西亚的比赛中,预计他们的最佳阵容将包括布雷斯·姆萨姆德斯、苏西奇、奥斯卡卡森、哈维López、久保和塞尔吉奥Gómez。

到目前为止,皇家社会面临两个主要问题:首先是他们的防守记录,8场比赛丢了8个球。然而,这些问题是可以解决的——其中3个进球来自对他们有利的抛界外球,2个来自点球,其余的来自防守失误。如果他们能在防守上保持专注,丢球的数量应该会减少,因为对手并没有给他们创造很多机会。

第二个问题是他们缺少进球,到目前为止只进了4球。尽管如此,他们还是创造了很多机会,尤其是在对阵马德里(1.43次射门)和巴利亚多利德(1.41次射门)的比赛中。他们只是在门前运气不好。

皇家社会是一支应该进入前8的球队,所以在这里的胜利几乎是必不可少的。

另一方面,瓦伦西亚本赛季一直在苦苦挣扎。虽然他们不是联盟最差的三支球队之一,但他们陷入了一个负面的螺旋,这可能会影响他们,尤其是他们是一支非常年轻和缺乏经验的球队。与上赛季不同的是,他们的防守,曾经是他们的优势,已经摇摇欲坠。他们很容易被击垮,尽管他们在最近的两场比赛中表现出了一些进步,他们得到了4分并且保持了零封。原因可能是他们两名最好的后卫:队长加亚和迪亚哈比长期受伤。

瓦伦西亚需要在他们最好的状态下赢得比赛,特别是在客场,他们需要发挥至少90%来确保积分。本赛季到目前为止,他们只在主场取得了积分。

这场比赛为皇家社会提供了一个完美的机会,在对阵脆弱的瓦伦西亚的比赛中,无论是防守还是精神上,他们都可以统治并重新发现自己的最佳状态。上个赛季社会达赢了瓦伦西亚的两场比赛,我希望他们在这里也能做到。

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