VfL Wolfsburg VS VfB Stuttgart

Wolfsburg welcome Stuttgart for this German Bundesliga round 5 battle at Volkswagen Arena  Saturday evening Beijing time. The Bundesliga is the 3rd-best league on the planet. Football enthusiasts and us serious bettors – with a long-term profit in mind, of course – can expect a clash of good quality by this league's standards here.. Along with Girona in the LaLiga, Stuttgart were one of the biggest positive surprises in European football last season. They upset everyone by finishing in 2nd place, above the mighty Bayern Munchen! They took a fine 73 points but their number of expected points (xPTS) was significantly lower! I expect a much more difficult 2024-2025 season for them! The abnormally strong last season still most probably affects their odds. We will take advantage of this, of course!  Let's not forget that in the 2022-2023 season Stuttgart were extremely close to being relegated to the 2. Bundesliga! Wolfsburg, on the other hand,  finished in 8th place in the spring of 2023.. However, there is no denying the fact that at the moment Stuttgart are the better team here. Even so, odds of around 2.10 on the away win are wrong in my expert opinion! Indeed, Stuttgart do not deserve to be clear favourites in front of the loud Wolfsburg fans here. The Wolfsburg +0.5 goals is the obvious smart bet!  We must give enough emphasis to the fact that Stuttgart have a very important UEFA Champions League (UCL) game against a dangerous opponent, Sparta Prague, coming up on Tuesday. Some squad ration by the Stuttgart head coach would not be surprising here.. Even without any rotation, the players might struggle with concentration ahead of the huge UCL game..

Wolfsburg are currently in 13th place with three points. However, their number of xPTS is higher – 45.04 to be precise. They have netted a pretty good eight goals and have allowed nine goals. Stuttgart are in 7th place with seven points in their pocket. They have scored 12 goals but their number of xG is "only" 9.98 Their defensive structure is not overly solid – they have conceded eight goals. Wolfsburg pushed Bayer Leverkusen away from home in their last game. However, the reigning champions, the 2nd-best team in this league by pure class, took a 4-3 win through V. Boniface's goal in the 90th+3 minute! Leverkusen were whopping favourites on the betting market – priced around 1.25 to win. Before this, Wolfsburg lost to Frankfurt 1-2 at home as slim underdogs according to the bookies. However, they had 66% ball possession and recorded a few more scoring attempts, and many more attacks, shots off goal as well as dangerous attacks. However, their defence played below the normal level, costing them the points.. Before these defats Wolfsburg took two wins! In round 2 they beat Holstein Kiel 2-0 on the road. The hosts were not without chances but Wolfsburg did generate more in xG. In the opening round Wolfsburg were, of course, big underdogs against Bayern Munich but pushed the visitors well – despite losing 2-3 in the end. The xG numbers were surprisingly balanced – 2.55-2.39 in Bayern's favour.

Stuttgart have won four of their last eight games. In their last game they were strong, beating Dortmund 5-1 at home. However, Dortmund were far from their best level in this game. The final score significantly flatters Stuttgart. Indeed, they had "only" nine shots on target. The xG numbers were 2.98-0.99. Before this they challenged Real Madrid in the UCL away from home, performing better than expected. However, they were not tactically – or mentally – mature enough to take even a point. 3-1 was the final score. In round 3 Stuttgart escaped with a 3-1 away win over Mönchengladbach but the hosts recorded many more goal attempts and shots off goal. The xG numbers were very balanced in the end -  2.33-2.31 to be precise.

GOOD LUCK!

沃尔夫斯堡VS斯图加特

北京时间周六晚，沃尔夫斯堡将在大众体育场迎接斯图加特。德甲是世界上第三好的联赛。足球爱好者和我们这些认真的投注者——当然，考虑到长期的利润——可以期待一场按照联赛标准的高质量的冲突。和西甲的赫罗纳一样，斯图加特是上赛季欧洲足坛最大的惊喜之一。他们以第二名的成绩结束了比赛，超过了强大的拜仁慕尼黑。他们得到了73分，但他们的期望分数(xPTS)明显更低!我预计2024-2025赛季对他们来说会困难得多!上个赛季的异常强劲仍然很可能影响他们的胜算。我们当然会利用这一点!让我们不要忘记，在2022-2023赛季，斯图加特非常接近降级到2级。德甲!另一方面，沃尔夫斯堡在2023年春季排名第8。然而，不可否认的事实是，目前斯图加特在这里是一支更好的球队。即便如此，在我看来，2.10的客场胜率是错误的!事实上，在沃尔夫斯堡的球迷面前，斯图加特不应该成为夺冠热门。沃尔夫斯堡+0.5球显然是明智的赌注!我们必须强调的是，斯图加特将在周二与危险的对手布拉格斯巴达进行一场非常重要的欧冠比赛。斯图加特主教练的一些阵容配给在这里并不令人惊讶。即使没有轮换，球员们也可能很难在伦敦联赛之前集中注意力。

沃尔夫斯堡目前积3分排在第13位。然而，他们的xPTS数量更高——准确地说是45.04个。他们进了8个球，丢了9个球。斯图加特积7分排在第7位。他们进了12个球，但他们的射门次数“只有”9.98，他们的防守结构不太稳固，他们丢了8个球。沃尔夫斯堡在上一场比赛中将勒沃库森逼出了客场。然而，卫冕冠军，这个联赛中排名第二的球队，在第90 +3分钟凭借V.博尼法斯的进球以4-3取胜!勒沃库森是博彩市场上的大热门，赌价在1.25左右。在此之前，沃尔夫斯堡在主场1比2输给了法兰克福，根据博彩公司的说法，他们是微弱的弱者。然而，他们有66%的控球率，记录了更多的得分尝试，更多的进攻，射门和危险的进攻。然而，他们的防守低于正常水平，使他们失分。在这些失败之前，沃尔夫斯堡取得了两场胜利!在第二轮比赛中，他们客场2-0击败了荷尔斯泰因基尔队。主队并非没有机会，但沃尔夫斯堡在上个赛季创造了更多机会。当然，沃尔夫斯堡在首轮对阵拜仁慕尼黑的比赛中处于劣势，但他们把客队逼得很好——尽管最后以2比3输掉了比赛。xG的数据出奇的平衡——拜仁以2.55比2.39领先。

斯图加特在最近的8场比赛中赢了4场。在上一场比赛中，他们很强大，在主场5-1击败了多特蒙德。然而，多特蒙德在这场比赛中远远没有达到他们的最佳水平。最后的比分明显让斯图加特感到高兴。事实上，他们“只有”9次射正。xG值为2.98 ~ 0.99。在此之前，他们在伦敦联赛客场挑战皇家马德里，表现比预期的要好。然而，他们在战术上——或者精神上——都不够成熟，甚至拿不到一分。3比1是最后的比分。在第三轮比赛中，斯图加特以3-1的比分战胜了Mönchengladbach，但东道主的进球次数和射门次数更多。xG的数字在最后非常平衡——准确地说是2.33-2.31。

好运！