Two good picks for La Liga! 西甲 马洛卡VS比利亚雷
2024-09-14

Borja

外籍分析师

解读理由:

MALLORCA - VILLARREAL

I completely disagree with these odds. Although I believe Mallorca has potential this season, particularly due to their coach, they are not at the same level as Villarreal and are not yet ready to compete with them.

Yes, they managed to draw twice at home, against Real Madrid and Sevilla, but in my opinion, Real Madrid played a poor match, and Sevilla is several steps below Villarreal. Mallorca struggles to score goals, and both of their goals scored so far followed the same pattern: key striker Muriqi was involved with a header. Against Real Madrid, he scored from a corner, and against Leganes, he provided an assist with a header as well. This is what Villarreal needs to be cautious of today, as Mallorca is strong in the air and on set pieces.

While Mallorca will be tough to beat, I see them struggling to secure wins due to their lack of creativity and finishing ability. On the other hand, Villarreal is a team that could easily be fighting for a top-four spot this season. They have a great squad, one of the best coaches in La Liga, and can fully focus on the league since they are not competing in Europe this year.

Their summer transfers have strengthened the squad, and it’s easily a team capable of playing in the Champions League. With plenty of quality and depth, I’m not too concerned about some of the absences for this fixture, such as Baena, Pape Gueye, Foyth, or Gerard Moreno, as they have solid replacements.

Villarreal has been performing well so far, with their attack being particularly impressive, creating numerous chances and scoring goals with ease. They’ve netted 9 goals in 4 games and, except for their match against Valencia where they were reduced to ten men after a red card in the 67th minute, they’ve scored at least two goals per match. They remain unbeaten, even playing strong sides like Atletico Madrid (1:1). I don’t think Villarreal will lose many games this season, except perhaps against teams with the firepower to score 2-3 goals. Villarreal, in any case, has the ability to score at least one goal against any La Liga rival.

Mallorca, however, isn’t a team capable of scoring multiple goals in this match. I expect them to try and slow the pace down, but Villarreal should be able to impose their rhythm and display their superior quality. They also have a stronger bench, with key players like Baena or Pépé ready to change the game if necessary.

Last season, Villarreal won 1-0 and later drew 1-1 in a game they dominated (1.92 expected goals), but where Mallorca scored a fortunate goal in the 92nd minute, with only 0.42 xG.

REAL SOCIEDAD - REAL MADRID

Real Sociedad is in very poor form, and judging by their transfer market activity, this season appears to be a transitional one. They haven’t made strong reinforcements, and they've lost two key players: Le Normand in defense and Mikel Merino in midfield. These absences, combined with their ongoing struggles from last season to find a reliable striker, lead me to believe they have a weaker squad this year. Yes, they’ve brought in replacements for those positions, but the new players are not yet at the same level.

Real Sociedad's transfers seem more focused on long-term development, as they've signed young players with potential. However, this season is likely to be difficult for them. So far, their performances have been underwhelming: just 1 win in 4 matches, and all of those games were against weaker relegation-threatened teams like Alaves, Rayo Vallecano, Espanyol, and Getafe. Their only victory was a fortunate 1-0 win over Espanyol, a newly promoted side and one of the weakest in La Liga, thanks to a brilliant individual effort by Take Kubo.

They are struggling to create danger in attack, playing slow and predictable football. Defensively, they’ve been vulnerable, especially to counterattacks and leaving open spaces. They've also been prone to mistakes, as seen in their games against Rayo Vallecano and Alaves.

On the other hand, Real Madrid cannot afford to drop more points if they want to stay in the title race. Barcelona is looking strong with 4 wins out of 4, and Real Madrid has already lost 4 points due to two away draws against Mallorca and Las Palmas.

Although Real Madrid isn’t in top form, as Ancelotti is still figuring out the best system for his talented squad, their potential is undeniable. Once they find the right tactics, they are likely to score a huge number of goals, as they arguably have one of the best attacks in the world.

Last season, when Real Sociedad was in much better shape than they are now, Real Madrid won both encounters. I think they might struggle in this match, but given Real Sociedad’s current poor form, I expect Madrid to win. Another defeat here could cost them the title in the long run, considering Barcelona’s impressive start. Real Madrid simply can’t afford to drop points in 3 of the first 5 rounds.

Jude Bellingham is out, but he will be replaced by Arda Güler, who has always performed brilliantly when given the chance. Camavinga and Tchouameni are also unavailable, but Modric will step in. He should thrive in a slow-paced game, which is often what you get when playing against Real Sociedad, as he no longer has the pace for a high-intensity match.



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马略卡-比利亚雷亚尔

我完全不同意这种说法。虽然我相信马洛卡本赛季有潜力,特别是由于他们的教练,他们还没有达到比利亚雷亚尔的水平,还没有准备好与他们竞争。

是的,他们在主场两次战平,分别对阵皇马和塞维利亚,但在我看来,皇马踢了一场糟糕的比赛,塞维利亚比比利亚雷亚尔差几个档次。马洛卡一直在努力进球,迄今为止他们的两粒进球都遵循着同样的模式:关键前锋穆里奇头球破门。在对阵皇马的比赛中,他通过角球破门得分,在对阵莱加内斯的比赛中,他也头球助攻。这是比利亚雷亚尔今天需要小心的,因为马洛卡在空中和定位球方面都很强大。

虽然马洛卡很难被击败,但我认为他们很难确保胜利,因为他们缺乏创造力和射门能力。另一方面,比利亚雷亚尔是一支本赛季很容易争夺前四的球队。他们有一个伟大的阵容,西甲最好的教练之一,并且可以完全专注于联赛,因为他们今年没有参加欧洲比赛。

他们的夏季转会增强了球队的实力,这支球队很容易就能参加欧冠比赛。有足够的质量和深度,我不太担心一些缺席的比赛,如巴埃纳,佩佩·盖耶,福耶斯,或者杰拉德·莫雷诺,因为他们有可靠的替补。

比利亚雷亚尔到目前为止表现不错,他们的进攻尤其令人印象深刻,创造了许多机会,轻松进球。他们在4场比赛中打进9球,除了对阵瓦伦西亚的比赛,他们在第67分钟被红牌罚下,只剩下10个人,他们每场比赛都至少进2球。他们保持不败,即使面对马德里竞技这样的强队(1:1)。我不认为比利亚雷亚尔本赛季会输掉很多比赛,除非是对阵那些有实力打进2-3球的球队。无论如何,比利亚雷亚尔有能力在对阵任何西甲对手的比赛中至少打进一球。

然而,马略卡并不是一支能够在这场比赛中多次进球的球队。我希望他们能够放慢节奏,但是比利亚雷亚尔应该能够把他们的节奏强加给对手,并展示出他们的优势。他们也有一个更强大的板凳,像巴埃纳或帕姆萨帕斯这样的关键球员随时准备在必要时改变比赛。

上赛季比利亚雷亚尔以1比0战胜对手,随后以1比1战平对手,但马洛卡队在第92分钟凭借0.42的射门优势破门。

皇家社会——皇家马德里

皇家社会的状态非常糟糕,从他们的转会市场活动来看,本赛季似乎是一个过渡赛季。他们没有强有力的增援,他们失去了两名关键球员:防守的勒诺曼和中场的米克尔梅里诺。这些缺阵,加上上赛季他们一直在努力寻找一名可靠的前锋,让我相信他们今年的阵容更弱。是的,他们已经为这些位置带来了替补,但新球员还没有达到同样的水平。

皇家社会的转会似乎更注重长期发展,因为他们签下了有潜力的年轻球员。然而,本赛季对他们来说可能会很困难。到目前为止,他们的表现平平:在4场比赛中只赢了1场,而且所有这些比赛都是对阵像阿拉维斯、巴列卡诺、西班牙人和赫塔菲这样的弱保级球队。他们唯一的胜利是幸运地1-0战胜了西班牙人队,这是一支刚刚升级的球队,也是西甲最弱的球队之一,这要归功于久保武的出色个人表现。

他们正在努力在进攻中制造危险,踢的是缓慢而可预测的足球。在防守端,他们很脆弱,尤其是面对反击和留下空位的时候。他们也很容易犯错,就像他们在对阵巴列卡诺和阿拉维斯的比赛中所看到的那样。

另一方面,皇马如果想继续留在冠军争夺战中,就不能再丢分了。巴萨4战4胜,看起来很强势,而皇马已经因为客场战平马略卡和拉斯帕尔马斯而丢了4分。

虽然皇马不是最好的状态,安切洛蒂仍然在为他的天才阵容寻找最好的体系,但他们的潜力是不可否认的。一旦他们找到了正确的战术,他们很可能会进很多球,因为他们可以说是世界上最好的进攻之一。

上个赛季,当皇家社会的状态比现在好得多的时候,皇马赢得了两场比赛。我认为他们可能会在这场比赛中挣扎,但考虑到皇家社会目前的po

从状态来看,我希望皇马能赢。从长远来看,考虑到巴塞罗那令人印象深刻的开局,在这里的另一场失利可能会让他们失去冠军。皇马不能在前5轮中丢掉3分。

裘德·贝灵汉将缺席,但他的位置将由阿尔达·格勒尔取代,只要有机会,他总是表现出色。卡马文加和楚瓦梅尼也不能上场,但莫德里奇将会顶替。他应该在慢节奏的比赛中茁壮成长,这通常是你在对阵皇家社会时得到的,因为他不再有高强度比赛的速度。

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