A GREAT match to bet on! ¥¥¥ 法甲 昂热VS尼斯
2024-09-01

Tapio

外籍分析师

解读理由:

Angers SCO VS OGC Nice



Angers host Nice for this Ligue 1 round 3 battle at Stade Raymond-Kopa late Sunday evening Beijing time. Ligue 1 is the highest tier of French football. This is the 5th-best league in Europe. Football enthusiasts and us serious, profit-hungry bettors can expect a match of somewhat average level by this league's standards here.. The main reason for this is the substantial difference in pure class between the two teams. Indeed, Nice have a considerable edge over Angers in all areas of the game! According to a well-known and respected German website, Transfermarkt.com, Nice the bigger team here – by a massive margin. Their squad has an estimated total market value of some 227 million euros – which is still slightly too high though. The Angers players are valued at a total of some 33 However, three of their players are overvalued. About 28-29 would be a more accurate number.. Angers were promoted from Ligue 2 to this level for this season. As this is only the 3rd round of play, we should take a look at least season's statistics and results to best calculate the probabilities here. Angers finished in 2nd place in Ligue 2 last season, behind Auxerre. Angers took 68 points and had a score difference of 56:42. Their number of expected points (xPTS) was "only" 61.12. They lack quality in all areas of the game for the Ligue 1 level. I want to highlight that the difference between Ligue 2 and Ligue 1 is huge, especially in terms of tempo and players' average skill level. Nice played very well last season, finishing in 5th place with 55 points. Their number of xPTS was 59.56. They scored only 40 goals but their number of expected goals (xG) was hugely bigger - 54.67. Quite impressively, they conceded the lowest number of goals in Ligue 1 – 34 to be precise. Their number of expected goals allowed (xGA) was bigger though. They should finish in the top-8 this season.


Angers have now lost six games in a row and must be low in confidence at the moment.. They have not scored a single goal in Ligue 1 so far! Indeed, their offense seems to lack basically everything needed to score (enough) goals at this level. In round 1 they lost to Lens at home 0-1, generating only 0.25 in xG! The visitors recorded many more goal attempts, shots on goal and shots off target. In their last match they lost to Lille 0-2 away from home. Lille had close to 70% ball possession and recorded many more goal attempts (11-5), shots on goal, attacks and especially dangerous attacks – 71-14. 14 dangerous attacks is a very low number in professional football. Lille also generated much more in xG than the lame Angers. Nice's results have not been very impressive recently, no denying this..  The main rationale behind this pick is to oppose the poor Angers - Nice are probably only slightly undervalued on the betting market at the moment.. They can improve significantly and would have deserved more than one point from the two Ligue 1 matches. The bookies seem to have overreacted to their lame recent record. Odds of around 2.00 are available on the Nice win. We will gladly take it. Based on my strongly data-based expert analysis - with the expected lineups, visitors have a 57% chance to take all three points! In their last game they faced a dangerous team, Toulouse, at home. It was a 1-1 draw but Nice generated more in xG 1.39-0.97 to be precise. In round 1 Nice lost to Auxerre 1-2 away from home. Auxerre are a much better team than Angers though. The hosts generated more in xG but it could easily have been a draw.. The hosts had several more goal attempts but Nice recorded more total passes, completed passes, attacks (119-91) and dangerous attacks.



该文章通过有道机器翻译,仅供参考:

上合VS OGC不错



北京时间周日晚,愤怒队主场迎战尼斯队,将在雷蒙德-科帕球场进行法甲第三轮比赛。法甲联赛是法国足球的最高级别联赛。这是欧洲排名第五的联赛。足球爱好者和我们这些认真的、追求利润的投注者可以期待一场以联赛标准衡量的中等水平的比赛。造成这种情况的主要原因是两支球队在纯级别上的巨大差异。的确,尼斯在比赛的各个方面都比昂热有相当大的优势!根据德国一家知名且受人尊敬的网站Transfermarkt.com的数据,尼斯在这里是一支更大的球队,而且差距很大。据估计,这支球队的总市值约为2.27亿欧元,不过这个数字还是有点太高了。愤怒队球员的总估值约为33,但其中3名球员的估值过高。28-29是更准确的数字。愤怒队本赛季从法甲升级到这个级别。由于这只是第三轮比赛,我们至少应该看看本赛季的数据和结果,以最好地计算出这里的概率。上个赛季,昂热在法甲排名第二,仅次于欧塞尔。愤怒队得了68分,比分相差56:42。他们的期望值(xPTS)“仅”为61.12。他们在比赛的各个方面都缺乏法甲水平的实力。我想强调的是,法甲和法甲之间的差异是巨大的,特别是在节奏和球员的平均技术水平方面。尼斯上赛季踢得很好,以55分排名第五。xPTS数为59.56例。他们只进了40个球,但他们的预期进球数(xG)要大得多——54.67个。令人印象深刻的是,他们丢了法甲联赛最少的球,准确地说是34个。不过他们的预期进球(xGA)更大。他们本赛季应该能进入前8名。


愤怒队现在已经连输六场了,现在肯定信心不足。到目前为止,他们还没有在法甲打进一球!事实上,他们的进攻似乎基本上缺乏在这个水平上取得(足够)进球所需的一切。在第一轮,他们在主场0-1不敌蓝斯,全场只产生0.25个进球!客队的进球次数、射正和射偏次数都有所增加。在上一场比赛中,他们客场0比2输给了里尔。里尔的控球率接近70%,并且有更多的进球尝试(11胜5负)、射门、进攻,尤其是危险的进攻——71胜14负。14次危险进攻在职业足球中是很低的数字。《里尔》在《xG》中产生的收益也远高于《愤怒》。尼斯最近的成绩不太令人印象深刻,这是不可否认的…这个选择背后的主要理由是反对可怜的愤怒队——尼斯队在目前的博彩市场上可能只是被略微低估了。他们可以有很大的进步,他们应该从两场法甲比赛中得到不止一分。博彩公司似乎对他们最近糟糕的战绩反应过度了。尼斯获胜的赔率约为2.00。我们很乐意接受。根据我强有力的基于数据的专家分析,在预期的阵容下,访问者有57%的机会获得所有三分!在上一场比赛中,他们在主场面对一支危险的球队——图卢兹。比分是1-1平,但尼斯在1.39-0.97的比分中创造了更多的比分。在第一轮比赛中,尼斯客场1-2不敌欧塞尔。欧塞尔是一支比愤怒强得多的球队。东道主在xG创造了更多机会,但很容易打成平局。东道主有几次进球尝试,但尼斯的总传球次数、完成传球次数、进攻次数(119比91)和危险进攻次数都更多。

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