Fiorentina VS Monza

Fiorentina welcome Monza for this Italian Serie B round 3 battle at Stadio Artemio Franchi in Florence very early this Eredivisie round 4 battle at Mandemakers Stadion early Monday morning Beijing time. This the 4th-best league in the world! Football fans and us serious bettors – with a long-term profit in mind, can expect a match of better average quality by this league's standards here. Most importantly, we have a very interesting betting opportunity - once again! We have won nine of the 10 last picks in this league. As this is only the 3rd round of play we should take a look at last season's results and statistics to best calculate the probabilities here. Both teams played pretty strongly last season. Fiorentina finished in 8th place with 60 points in their pocket. However, their number of expected points (xPTS) was lower 54.56 to be precise. They scored 61 goals and conceded 46 goals in the Serie A. Their number of expected goals (xG) was 57.56. Fiorentina's number of expected goals (xGA) was 56.03. Monza were promoted from the Serie B to the Serie A for the 2022-2023 season. They ended up in 12th place last season and did a little better than I would have expected. Their score difference was 39:51. They should improve their offensive structure and be more creative offensively to make it to the top-10. Their number of xG was 47.06. The teams last locked horns in May and Fiorentina deservedly took a narrow 2-1 win.In December 2022 "Viola" won 1-0 in Monza. In 2023 Monza won 3-2 at home and in Florence it was a 1-1 draw.

Fiorentina have not won any of their last five games in the 90 minutes of play. On Thursday local time they did beat Puskas Academy, a pretty small Hungarian team, 2-1 after penalties though. It was a UEFA Europa Conference League Qualification 4th round 2nd leg clash. I want to highlight that having only two full days to recover and prepare is far from optimal in professional football! Moreover, it was a tough 120 minutes of play! Fiorentina received two red cards in this game – Ranieri was sent off in the 90th+4 minute and Comuzzo in the 97th minute, in the extra time. The hosts recorded many more goal attempts (19-5), shots on goal (8-3), shots off goal, corner kicks, attacks and dangerous attacks. Before this Fiorentina were priced around 1.45 to beat the newly-promoted Venezia at home but no goals were scored. The Fiorentina offense was rather lame, lacking speed and creativity. Yes, they did generate a little more than Venezia in xG (0.88-0.79) but their odds were definitely too low...

Before the lame effort against Venezia, it was a 3-3 draw at home with Puskas Academy. Fiorentina were priced around 1.25 to win but recorded only one more shot on goal. They were the better team on the pitch but surely not as much better as the odds would suggest! In round 1 they faced Parma, another newly-promoted club, on the road as clear favourites, priced round 2.15 to win on the betting market. The hosts generated much more than Fiorentina in xG – 1.89-0.85. Fiorentina's performance was disappointing as a whole. Monza have won four and lost three of their last nine games. Just one of these losses came by a margin of more than one goal, against AC Milan in a friendly game some two weeks ago. In their last match they lost to Genoa at home 0-1 despite having 70% ball possession and more shots on goal, attacks and dangerous attacks. Genoa generated a little more in xG in this rather defensive and uneventful clash. Before this Monza played a goalless draw on the road with Empoli as underdogs on the betting market. It was a somewhat balanced clash as a whole. Monza can significantly improve from these two games and should be much fresher than Fiorentina here. Even an away win would not be a huge surprise in my expert opinion. With the expected lineups Fiorentina are of course the favourites in front of their fans here, but the current odds of around 1.65 are way too low. We will take the Monza +1.5 goals handicap option to extend the winning streak!

佛罗伦萨VS蒙扎

北京时间周一凌晨，佛罗伦萨将在佛罗伦萨阿尔特米奥·弗兰基球场迎接蒙扎参加意甲第三轮比赛。这是世界上第四好的联赛!球迷和我们这些认真的投注者——考虑到长期的利润，可以期待一场比联赛标准更好的平均质量的比赛。最重要的是，我们有一个非常有趣的投注机会——再一次!我们赢得了这个联盟最后10次选秀中的9次。由于这只是第三轮比赛，我们应该看看上赛季的结果和数据来最好地计算概率。上个赛季这两个队都打得很好。佛罗伦萨以60分排名第8。然而，他们的期望值(xPTS)较低，准确地说是54.56。在意甲联赛中，他们打进61球，丢46球，他们的预期进球数(xG)为57.56。佛罗伦萨的预期进球数(xGA)为56.03。蒙扎队在2022-2023赛季从意甲乙级升入意甲。上赛季他们最终排在第12位，比我预期的要好一些。他们的比分差是39:51。他们应该改善他们的进攻结构，在进攻上更有创造力，才能进入前十。xG数为47.06。两队上一次交锋是在5月份，佛罗伦萨以2比1险胜。2022年12月，“紫百合”在蒙扎以1比0获胜。2023年，蒙扎主场3-2获胜，佛罗伦萨1-1战平。

在过去的五场比赛中，佛罗伦萨在90分钟的比赛中没有赢过一场。当地时间周四，他们在点球大战后以2比1击败了一支相当小的匈牙利球队普斯卡什学院。这是欧联杯资格赛第四轮第二回合的比赛。我想强调的是，只有整整两天的时间来恢复和准备，这在职业足球中远非最佳状态!此外，这是一场艰苦的120分钟比赛!佛罗伦萨在本场比赛中得到两张红牌——拉涅利在第90 +4分钟被红牌罚下，Comuzzo在第97分钟的加时赛中被红牌罚下。东道主的进球次数(19胜5负)、射正次数(8胜3负)、射偏次数、角球次数、进攻次数和危险进攻次数都更多。在此之前，佛罗伦萨在主场击败新升级的威尼斯队的价格在1.45左右，但没有进球。佛罗伦萨的进攻相当蹩脚，缺乏速度和创造力。是的，他们在xG(0.88-0.79)上确实比威尼斯多了一点，但他们的几率确实太低了……

在对阵威尼斯之前，他们在主场3-3战平了普斯卡什学院。佛罗伦萨的胜率在1.25美元左右，但他们只多射门一次。他们是球场上更好的球队，但肯定没有赔率所显示的那么好!在第一轮比赛中，他们面对的是帕尔马，另一支刚刚升入豪门的球队，他们显然是夺冠热门，在博彩市场上打出2.15轮的胜率。主队在xG - 1.89-0.85的得分远高于佛罗伦萨。佛罗伦萨的表现总体上令人失望。蒙扎队在最近的9场比赛中取得了4胜3负。其中只有一场输球超过一球，那是大约两周前与AC米兰的一场友谊赛。在上一场比赛中，尽管他们拥有70%的控球率和更多的射门、进攻和危险进攻，但他们还是在主场0-1输给了热那亚。热那亚在xG中产生了更多的防守和平静的冲突。在此之前，蒙扎在客场与恩波利踢了一场0比0的平局。总的来说，这是一场平衡的冲突。蒙扎可以从这两场比赛中得到明显的提高，在这里应该比佛罗伦萨更有活力。在我的专家看来，即使是客场获胜也不会是一个巨大的惊喜。在球迷面前，佛罗伦萨当然是最受欢迎的阵容，但目前1.65左右的赔率太低了。我们将采用蒙扎+1.5个进球障碍选项来延续连胜!