VALENCIA - VILLARREAL

Valencia has had a terrible start to the season, with 3 defeats in 3 games. The team has struggled to generate any real threat while also conceding goals far too easily, making them an easy target for opponents. Although they’ve made some decent reinforcements, considering that the club's owners are reluctant to invest, the team remains very young and inexperienced, which means it will take time for them to reach their best form. Coach Baraja will need time to work another miracle as he did last season, when he built a strong, competitive team that was hard to beat.

I believe they will eventually improve, but it will take time. Currently, the team is very young, particularly in the center-back position, where they are making many mistakes and struggling to keep a clean sheet—something that was a strength last season. Part of this could be due to the long-term injuries of their two best defenders, Gayà and Diakhaby.

Additionally, they are in poor physical condition. In all three games, they looked exhausted and tired by around the 60th minute. For this fixture, they’ll likely be even more fatigued, having played a midweek game on Wednesday against Athletic without the depth to rotate players effectively, as they have a short squad. No significant rotations are expected, so the players will be really tired.

On the other hand, Villarreal has an amazing team and should be competing for a top-4 finish. They have a lot of quality and depth, especially in attack. Their squad looks like one that could contend for the Europa League title, but since they aren’t playing in any European competitions this season, they can fully focus on La Liga.

They’ve started the season well, with 2 wins and a draw in the first round against Atletico. So far, they’ve shown the same characteristics as last season: a fragile defense but a very strong attack. They have scored 8 goals in 3 games, showing an impressive ability to create and convert chances.

Villarreal undoubtedly has more quality in this matchup. They also have much more squad depth to handle games with short rest periods and can make changes without losing quality. Physically, they are in a much better condition than Valencia, who have shown signs of fatigue and weakness.

In my opinion, Villarreal are the favorites to win this game. I expect Valencia to concede a lot, and only goalkeeper Mamardashvili might prevent them from conceding more than 2 goals. Offensively, I don’t see Valencia having enough quality to score more than 1 goal. I anticipate an open game with goals, likely ending 1-3 or 1-2.

ESPANYOL - RAYO VALLECANO

Rayo Vallecano should be the favorite here. Espanyol has been the worst team in the league so far. Although they are coming off a draw against Atletico, they were very lucky, as they conceded many chances, generated zero threat upfront, and should have conceded at least 3 goals. Their tactics in the first half were especially poor, as they defended deep in their own area and allowed 1.53 expected goals in just 45 minutes. Throughout the entire game, they conceded 2.67 expected goals.

Their approach in the previous games was similar: against Real Sociedad, they were also very defensive, losing 0-1 without any real reaction, and against Valladolid (0-1), they were an easy team to beat. So far, Espanyol has shown a lack of quality in attack, and looking at their squad, it’s clear they have a weaker team than last season in the Segunda División.

For this game, their plan will likely be the same: play defensively, slow the pace of the game, and try to score from one of the few chances they’ll create.

However, Rayo Vallecano has been impressive so far. They played very well against Barcelona in the midweek (lost 1-2), previously drew against Getafe (0-0), and won away against Real Sociedad (2-1) with a great performance. Despite having a similar squad to last season, the team looks completely different. They are more solid in defense, executing their game plan much better, and are finding more chances upfront.

If they continue at this level, I believe they’ll be a difficult team to beat and shouldn’t have any issues avoiding the relegation zone. Additionally, they’ve made a good signing with James Rodríguez, who isn’t ready to start yet but can be a game-changer for a team like Rayo Vallecano.

Although both teams are at a similar level, Rayo has been performing much better so far, and I see them fully capable of avoiding defeat here. I haven't seen enough from Espanyol to suggest they can win a game in La Liga, and I believe they’ll struggle a lot to do so.

瓦伦西亚-比利亚雷亚尔

瓦伦西亚本赛季开局糟糕，3场比赛3败。这支球队一直在努力创造任何真正的威胁，同时也太容易失球，这使得他们很容易成为对手的目标。尽管考虑到俱乐部老板不愿意投资，他们已经进行了一些不错的扩充，但球队仍然很年轻，经验不足，这意味着他们需要时间才能达到最佳状态。主教练巴拉哈需要时间来创造另一个奇迹，就像他上赛季所做的那样，当时他建立了一支强大的，有竞争力的球队，很难被击败。

我相信他们最终会改善，但这需要时间。目前，这支球队非常年轻，特别是在中卫位置上，他们犯了很多错误，努力保持零失球，这是上赛季的优势。部分原因可能是由于他们的两名最好的后卫，盖恩斯和迪亚哈比的长期伤病。

此外，他们的身体状况也很差。在这三场比赛中，他们在第60分钟左右就显得疲惫不堪。对于这场比赛，他们可能会更加疲劳，因为他们在周三的周中对阵竞技的比赛中没有深度来有效地轮换球员，因为他们的阵容很短。预计没有重大的轮换，所以球员们会很累。

另一方面，比利亚雷亚尔拥有一支令人惊叹的球队，应该为前四而战。他们有很强的实力和深度，尤其是在进攻端。他们的阵容看起来很有可能争夺欧联杯冠军，但由于他们本赛季没有参加任何欧洲赛事，他们可以完全专注于西甲联赛。

他们本赛季开局不错，首轮对阵马竞2胜1平。到目前为止，他们表现出和上赛季一样的特点:防守脆弱，但进攻非常强大。他们在3场比赛中进了8个球，表现出了令人印象深刻的创造和转化机会的能力。

比利亚雷亚尔在这场比赛中无疑更有实力。他们也有更多的阵容深度来应对短时间休息的比赛，并且可以在不损失质量的情况下做出改变。在身体上，他们比瓦伦西亚要好得多，后者表现出了疲劳和虚弱的迹象。

在我看来，比利亚雷亚尔最有可能赢得这场比赛。我预计瓦伦西亚会丢很多球，只有门将马马达什维利能阻止他们丢超过2个球。在进攻端，我不认为瓦伦西亚有足够的能力打进1球以上。我期待一场有进球的开放比赛，可能以1-3或1-2结束。

西班牙人-雷约·巴列卡诺

雷约·巴列卡诺应该是最受欢迎的。到目前为止，西班牙人队一直是联赛中最差的球队。虽然他们刚刚与马竞战平，但他们非常幸运，因为他们丢了很多机会，前场没有产生威胁，本应该丢至少3个球。他们在上半场的战术尤其糟糕，因为他们在自己的区域内防守很深，在短短45分钟内就丢了1.53个预期进球。整场比赛，他们丢了2.67个预期进球。

他们在之前的比赛中也采取了类似的战术:对阵皇家社会时，他们也非常防守，0-1输掉比赛，没有任何真正的反应;对阵巴利亚多利德(0-1)时，他们是一支很容易被击败的球队。到目前为止，西班牙人在进攻端表现出缺乏质量，看看他们的阵容，很明显他们的阵容比上赛季在第二次联赛中要弱División。

对于这场比赛，他们的计划可能是一样的:防守，放慢比赛节奏，并尝试从他们创造的为数不多的机会中得分。

然而，到目前为止，巴列卡诺的表现令人印象深刻。他们在周中对阵巴塞罗那的比赛中表现非常出色(1-2输球)，之前对阵赫塔菲(0-0)，并在客场以出色的表现战胜皇家社会(2-1)。尽管球队阵容与上赛季相似，但球队看起来完全不同。他们的防守更加稳固，更好地执行他们的比赛计划，并且在前场找到更多的机会。

如果他们继续保持这样的水平，我相信他们将是一支很难被击败的球队，避免降级应该没有任何问题。此外，他们还签下了詹姆斯Rodríguez，他还没有准备好首发，但对于巴列卡诺这样的球队来说，他可以改变比赛。

虽然两支球队的水平差不多，但到目前为止，雷诺的表现要好得多，我认为他们完全有能力避免在这里失败。我还没有从西班牙人那里看到足够的证据表明他们可以在西甲赢得一场比赛，我相信他们要做到这一点需要付出很多努力。