Fenerbahce VS LOSC Lille

Fenerbahce and Lille lock horns in this UEFA Champions League Qualification round 3 second leg at Ulker Stadium Şükrü Saracoğlu in Istanbul very early Wednesday morning Beijing time. Football fans and us serious, profit-hungry bettors can expect a match of excellent quality by this competition's 3rd round standards here. Most importantly, we have yet another extremely interesting betting opportunity here! We have won seven picks in a row and 14/15 last picks betting on this league! Let's take a professional bettors' approach to this fascinating match..

The hosts are a Turkish team,  the visitors come from France. The home advantage here is massive, even bigger than on average in UEFA's international club matches! The Ulker Stadium Şükrü Saracoğlu is a scary place for any team to play at! Yes, the Fenerbahce fans are extremely loud, enthusiastic and often even hostile towards the visiting team.. They are also demanding towards their favourite team and if Fenerbahce struggle against a lowly opponent the fans sometimes even give the team negative "feedback". However, this is not the case here as Lille are a dangerous team, despite not being among the very best teams in France.. They ended up in 4th place last season with 59 points to their account – 17 points behind the reigning champions, PSG. However, their number of expected points (xPTS) was only 53.67. They conceded only 34 goals but their number of expected goals allowed (xGA) was 42.98. The Ligue 1 has not started yet – and Lille have only one competitive game under their belt this season. The Turkish Super Lig started last weekend. The owners of Fenerbahce have, again, invested massively in the team this season! Their goal is to topple the reigning champions of the Super Lig, Galatasaray – and qualify for the Champions League Group stage. Fenerbahce have played four competitive games this season. This means that they have a significant edge over the visitors in terms of match fitness – and teamplay to some extent as well..

In round 1 of the Super Lig Fenerbahce, did some squad rotation by their new head coach, The Special One'. Indeed, Jose Mourinho is one of the most successful football coaches in terms of different (major) trophies won. Fenerbahce took a well-deserved 1-0home win – despite not being at their best.. The players were, of course, avoiding injuries and getting too fatigued -  and did only what was necessary to take all three points. Some of the players surely had their minds partly on this massive game against Lille.. Fenerbahce recorded five shots on target - Adana Demirspor's number was just one. Fenerbahce have a genuine chance of making both most important goals for the a reality; They have players like Dzeko, Tadic, and Allan Saint-Maximin – not world-class players but still footballers with huge individual skill and experience of big international games! The latter, a very talented and fast Frenchman, played for Al-Ahli last season in the Saudi Professional League. He is still officially an Al-Ahli player but is on loan until next June. He will surely be an integral part of Mourinho's team.. Before the stint in Saudi Arabia, he was excellent at Newcastle in the English Premier League, clearly the best league in the world!

Last season Galatasaray won the  Super Lig championship with a whopping 102 points in their pocket. Fenerbahce took a strong 99 points, losing only one of the 38 games1  Moreover, in front of their "crazy" fans they won 15 of the 19 matches in the Super Lig! Let's remember that Fenerbahce have now won seven competitive matches in a row at home. They beat a pretty dangerous Swiss team, Lugano, in the previous round of Qualification. The first leg in Lugano was, in many ways, a relatively balanced battle but the Fenerbahce players' much better individual skill-level secured them a 4-3 win in the end. The Turkish visitors recorded only one more shot on goal though. However, I want to highlight that Turkish teams rarely shine on the road and are hugely better at home! This definitely applies to Fenerbahce as well! The same is true with most French teams, including Lille.. In the second leg Lugano shocked Fenerbahce with an early goal but Fenerbahce did not panic – Dzeko and Szymanski netted the ball in the 2nd half – securing Fenerbahce yet another home win  - 2-1! Fenerbahce recorded more goal attempts, shots off goal (5-1), corner kicks, total passes, completed passes, attacks and dangerous attacks. I want to highlight that Lugano played better than I would have expected in both games.

Lille won the first leg 2-1 last week but it could very easily have been a draw as well. Lille recorded two more shots on goal than Fenerbahce - 7-5. Both teams had four shots on target. The very late 2-1 goal was a lucky one.. Indeed, Edon Zhegrova tried his luck from the edge of the box and the shot took a deflection and went past the stranded Dominik Livakov. The 2-1 first leg result means that both teams have a good chance of advancing to the final round of Qualification. A draw would of course be enough for the French visitors.. Lille will surely not want to just "enter the pitch and try to play low-risk football – ie. defend a draw" but there is long-term data/a lot of evidence suggesting that - in reality - this very often impossible to avoid.. In the majority of football matches the team trailing has a higher goal expectancy than they would have if the score were level.. If Fenerbahce were to lead by one goal late into the second half – say starting from the approximately 75th minute, I expect the match to become pretty cagey.. Indeed. In this scenario both teams probably avoid risks as a 2x15 minutes extra time would be on the cards.. This is a (small) positive factor for our bet..   With the expected lineups, taking the huge home advantage -  and 1-2 on aggregate into account the Fenerbahce win is the obvious smart bet here! Odds of over 1.80 are widely available on the betting market at the time of posting this in-depth analysis.  Lille had mixed results in the six preseason friendly games – taking three wins, two draws and losing one game. Fenerbahce, on the other hand,  won three three of the five preseason friendlies.

该文章通过有道机器翻译，仅供参考:

费内巴切VS里尔

北京时间周三凌晨，费内巴切和里尔将在伊斯坦布尔乌尔克体育场Şükrü Saracoğlu举行欧冠资格赛第三轮第二回合比赛。足球迷和我们这些认真的、追求利润的投注者可以期待一场高质量的比赛，以本届比赛的第三轮标准来看。最重要的是，我们还有另一个非常有趣的投注机会!我们已经连续7次赢得选秀权，14/15的最后一次选秀权押注于这个联盟!让我们以专业投注者的方式来看待这场精彩的比赛。

东道主是一支土耳其队，客队来自法国。这里的主场优势是巨大的，甚至比欧足联国际俱乐部比赛的平均优势还要大!Ulker体育场Şükrü Saracoğlu对任何球队来说都是一个可怕的地方!是的，费内巴切的球迷非常大声，热情，甚至经常对客队充满敌意。他们对自己喜欢的球队也要求很高，如果费内巴切在与实力较弱的对手的比赛中挣扎，球迷有时甚至会给球队负面的“反馈”。然而，这里的情况并非如此，里尔是一支危险的球队，尽管不是法国最好的球队之一。上赛季他们以59分的积分排名第四，比卫冕冠军巴黎圣日耳曼落后17分。然而，他们的期望点数(xPTS)仅为53.67。他们只丢了34个球，但他们的预期失球数(xGA)是42.98个。法甲联赛还没有开始，里尔本赛季只有一场正式比赛。土耳其超级联赛上周末开赛。费内巴切的老板本赛季再次在球队上投入了大量资金!他们的目标是推翻超级联赛卫冕冠军加拉塔萨雷，并晋级欧冠小组赛。费内巴切本赛季踢了四场正式比赛。这意味着他们在比赛状态方面比客队有很大的优势——在某种程度上也比客队有团队精神。

在中超费内巴切的第一轮比赛中，他们的新主教练“特别的一个”进行了一些阵容轮换。的确，何塞·穆里尼奥是最成功的足球教练之一，就赢得的不同(主要)奖杯而言。费内巴切在主场以1比0赢得了一场当之无愧的胜利——尽管他们并没有处于最佳状态。当然，球员们尽量避免受伤，避免过度疲劳，他们只做了必要的事情来拿到三分。有些球员肯定一心想着和里尔的比赛。费内巴切有5次射正，而德米斯波尔只有1次射正。费内巴切有机会实现这两个最重要的进球;他们有哲科、塔迪奇和圣马克西姆这样的球员，虽然不是世界级的球员，但他们仍然拥有出色的个人技术和大型国际比赛的经验!后者是一个非常有天赋和速度很快的法国人，上赛季在沙特职业联赛为阿赫利队效力。他仍然是阿赫利的正式球员，但将被租借到明年6月。他肯定会成为穆里尼奥队伍中不可或缺的一员。在去沙特之前，他在英超纽卡斯尔表现出色，这显然是世界上最好的联赛!

上个赛季，加拉塔萨雷队以102分的成绩夺得了超级联赛冠军。费内巴切队在38场比赛中只输了一场，拿到了99分。此外，在他们“疯狂”的球迷面前，他们在中超联赛的19场比赛中赢了15场!让我们记住费内巴切现在已经在主场赢得了七连胜。在上一轮预选赛中，他们击败了一支相当危险的瑞士球队卢加诺。在卢加诺的第一回合，从很多方面来说，是一场相对平衡的战斗，但费内巴切球员的个人技术水平要高得多，最终确保了他们以4-3获胜。然而，土耳其客队只射门一次。然而，我想强调的是，土耳其球队很少在客场表现出色，他们在主场的表现要好得多!这当然也适用于费内巴切!大多数法国队也是如此，包括里尔。在第二回合，卢加诺的一粒进球震惊了费内巴切，但费内巴切并没有惊慌——哲科和希曼斯基在下半场的进球帮助费内巴切再次取得主场胜利——2-1!费内巴切的进球次数、射门次数(5比1)、角球次数、总传球次数、完成传球次数、进攻次数和危险进攻次数都更多。我想强调的是卢加诺在两场比赛中的表现都超出了我的预期。

里尔在上周的首回合比赛中以2-1获胜

也很容易打成平局。里尔比费内巴切多射了两次，比分是7-5。两队都有四次射正。最后时刻2比1的进球是一个幸运的进球。事实上，哲格罗娃在禁区边缘尝试了一下运气，但射门偏出，越过了被困的多米尼克·利瓦科夫。首回合2比1的结果意味着两支球队都有很好的机会进入最后一轮预选赛。对于法国客队来说，一场平局就足够了。里尔肯定不希望只是“进入球场并尝试踢低风险的足球”。但有长期数据/大量证据表明，在现实中，这往往是不可避免的……在大多数足球比赛中，落后的球队比比分相等的球队有更高的进球期望。如果费内巴切在下半场后半段领先一球——比如说从大约75分钟开始，我预计比赛会变得相当谨慎。确实。在这种情况下，两支球队可能都避免了风险，因为2 × 15分钟的加时将是可能的。这是我们打赌的一个(小)积极因素。在预期的阵容中，考虑到巨大的主场优势和1-2的总比分，费内巴切的胜利显然是明智的选择!在发布这篇深度分析时，投注市场上有超过1.80的赔率。里尔在6场季前赛友谊赛中取得了喜忧参半的成绩——3胜2平1负。另一方面，费内巴切在五场季前赛中赢了三场。