Jeju United VS Incheon United Club

Jeju United welcome Incheon for this Korean K League 1 Saturday evening Beijing time. The level of this league is not particularly by global standards but by Asian standards the level is pretty good! Football enthusiasts and us serious bettors – with a long-term profit in mind - can expect a match of somewhat average quality by the K League 1 standards here. Most importantly, we have yet another very promising betting opportunity to make even more money betting on South Korean football. My fans and I have won nine of the last 10 picks betting on this league! I will also post a pick on two other matches in this league soon! Incheon have been a big disappointment this season so far.. Consequently I have significantly lowered their power rating from the comprehensive, in-depth preseason analysis as the season has progressed.. For clarification, this rating reflects the teams' pure class - excluding the motivation factor as well as the possible fatigue caused by a demanding match schedule. Last season Incheon ended in 6th place after the regular season (33 rounds of play). I want to emphasize that they have declined significantly this season! Yes, they should have some potential to enhance their level but a quick, considerable improvement is very improbable.. The bookmakers seem to see the situation differently.. Indeed, the biggest bookmakers who accept the biggest wagers from customers offer odds of around 2.30 on the Jeju United win. This is undoubtedly too high. With the expected lineups, based on my sophisticated, strongly data-based expert analysis, see JeJu deserve to be very solid favourites here! We will take the Jeju win with the 51% chance of extending the winning streak of five picks! Let's take a closer look at both team's season records/statistics - as well as their most recent matches..

Incheon are currently in 9th place in this league with a total of 12 clubs. The top-6 teams qualify for the Championship Group and Incheon's chances of succeeding in this are almost non-existent as Gwangju, in 6th place, have 37 points in their pocket.. This must be  demoralizing for the Incheon players.. They have a very disappointing 25 points in their pocket. Their number of expected points (xPTS) is somewhat higher though. They have no very obvious strengths or weaknesses in their game.. They have simply been disappointing in all areas of the game! Compared to other teams, Incheon's defence has been slightly better than their offense.. They have allowed 34 goals but have netted the ball only 27 times. For reference, Suwon, in 5th place, have a score difference of 34:33. The lowest number of goals scored in this league is 24 - by Daejeon and Daegu. Incheon's offensive structure is not awful but their attacks are often way too slow, and predictable – allowing the opponent to organize the defence to defend successfully..

Incheon have been in very lame form recently - losing three games in a row! They scored just one goal in these three matches.. Moreover, they have won only one of their last nine matches! I would also like to mention that there have been some rumors circulating about some problems within the club.. A big number of the Incheon players have not looked confident at all on the pitch recently which has been illustrated, for example, a player giving the wrong pass at a critical moment/area – near their own goal – or the opponent's goal. They have also often been too shy when defending near their own goal in general. In their last game they faced Seoul, currently in 7th place, and did not play all that poorly, despite losing 0-1. However, their offense, once again, lacked creativity. Both teams recorded four shots on goal. Before this they were very disappointing, losing to Suwon 1-4 at home! Early on they were the favourites on the betting market but smart money from – probably especially from betting syndicates and independent sports bettors unsurprisingly came for Suwon and the visitors were priced around 2.40 to win at the time of kickoff. Suwon recorded many more goal attempts (13-7), shots on goal, shots off target – 7-3. Before this Incheon lost to Ulsan HD away from home in a South Korean Cup quarter-final clash. The hosts were somewhat dominant in this game despite winning only 1-0. Ulsan recorded hugely more goal attempts (17-3), shots on target (11-2) and shots off goal – 6-1 to be precise. They also generated much more in expected goals (xG). Incheon did defend pretty well but I still need to mention that Ulsan were oddly ineffective in making the most of the scoring chances! The Incheon offense, on the other hand, was lacking everything needed to generate even a moderate number in xG. In round 23 Incheon beat Gwangju on the road 2-0. Gwangju are having a pretty disappointing season considering that they finished in third place last season.. Yes, Gwangju were far from their best in this match but Incheon did play one of their best games this season. Yes, on a good day they can perform at a high level but the good performances have been incredibly rare this season.. Incheon had two more shots on target but Gwangju managed many more attacks (159-91) as well as  dangerous attacks – 125-61 to be precise. Despite Gwangju being poor in this game the final score does not illustrate the events on the pitch! I will not give this individual good performance too much emphasis.. The game was, after all, played in 14th of July..

Jeju have improved from last season performance-wise – more than the standings reflect.. They finished in 9th place last season. They currently occupy the 8th place in the standings with 32 points to their account. However, their expected number of expected points (xPTS) is 35.11. Their score difference is 26:35. However, their number of xG is 31.03. Furthermore, their number of expected goals allowed (xGA) is 32.14. Jeju have beaten Incheon in the last two games between the two teams. In round 26, on the 26th of June, Jeju took a 1-0 home win. They had 55% ball possession and also recorded many more goal attempts (11-6), shots on goal, shots off goal (7-4) and corner kicks – 7-1 than Incheon. In April Jeju beat Incheon at Sungui Arena Park in Incheon as pretty clear underdogs on the betting market. The match was relatively balanced though - both teams had the same number of shots on goal and goal attempts. However, Incheon were definitely overvalued by the bookies - and have been in very many games this season. 

Jeju have now won three of their last four matches. In their last game they beat the reigning champions, Ulsan HD, 1-0 at home after a terrific performance – especially defensively. Ulsan, the favourites, of course, in this game, recorded only one shot on goal and four goal attempts!  The hosts defended in a very organized way as a team! Jeju, however, were strong offensively as well -  recording 14 goal attempts and six shots on target! Before this Jeju were undoubtedly very far from their best, losing to Gangwon 0-2 away from home as solid underdogs. However, the final score is misleading.. Before this they beat Gimpo 1-0 on the road in a South Korean Cup game, despite the hosts playing surprisingly well! In round 23 they beat Pohang, a very dangerous team, currently in 3rd place -  and 2nd last season, 58 points after regular season. Jeju, despite being underdogs on the betting market, recorded more shots on goal, goal attempts (16-8), shots off goal, corner kicks, attacks and dangerous attacks. Lastly, I want to mention that Jeju have been the fourth-best team at home in this league this season – taking 24 points! In front of their fans I expect them to be active, putting pressure on the out-of-form visitors!

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济州联队VS仁川联队

北京时间周六晚，济州联队将在本次韩国K联赛中迎来仁川队。这个联赛的水平不是特别以全球标准来衡量，但以亚洲标准来衡量，这个水平是相当不错的!足球爱好者和我们这些抱着长远利益的严肃投注者，可以期待一场以K联赛标准衡量的中等质量的比赛。最重要的是，我们还有一个非常有前途的投注机会，可以在韩国足球上赚更多的钱。我和我的球迷在过去的10次选秀中赢了9次!我也会在不久的将来发表另外两场比赛的评论!到目前为止，仁川队这个赛季一直很令人失望。因此，随着赛季的进行，我大大降低了他们在全面深入的季前赛分析中的能量评级。澄清一下，这个评级反映的是球队的纯粹等级——排除了激励因素以及高强度赛程可能造成的疲劳。上赛季仁川队在常规赛(33轮)结束后排名第6。我想强调的是，他们在这个赛季明显下降了!是的，他们应该有提高水平的潜力，但是迅速、大幅度的提高是不太可能的。博彩公司似乎对形势有不同的看法。事实上，接受客户最大赌注的最大博彩公司对济州联合的赔率约为2.30。这无疑太高了。根据我复杂的、基于数据的专家分析，预期的阵容，济州岛应该是非常受欢迎的!我们将以51%的机会延续5连胜，拿下济州的胜利!”让我们来仔细看看这两支球队的赛季记录/数据，以及他们最近的比赛。

目前，仁川共有12支球队，排名第9位。前6名的球队都有资格进入冠军小组，而仁川队在这个小组中取得成功的可能性几乎为零，因为排名第6的光州队已经拿到了37分。这一定会让仁川队的球员士气低落。他们只拿到了令人失望的25分。不过，它们的期望值(xPTS)要高一些。他们在比赛中没有明显的优势或劣势。他们在比赛的各个方面都令人失望!与其他球队相比，仁川队的防守略好于进攻。他们丢了34个球，但只有27次进球。排名第5位的水原以34:33的成绩落后。联赛进球数最少的是24球，分别是大田和大邱。仁川的进攻结构并不糟糕，但他们的进攻往往太慢，而且是可预测的——这让对手能够组织防守，成功地防守。

仁川队最近状态很差，连输三场!在这三场比赛中他们只进了一个球。此外，他们在最近的9场比赛中只赢了一场!我还想提一下，关于俱乐部内部的一些问题，坊间流传着一些谣言。最近，仁川队的很多球员在球场上表现得一点都不自信，例如，一名球员在关键时刻/区域(在本队球门附近)或对手的球门附近传球错误。总的来说，他们在自己的球门附近防守时也常常太害羞。在上一场比赛中，他们面对的是目前排名第七的首尔，尽管他们以0比1输掉了比赛，但他们的表现并不差。然而，他们的进攻再一次缺乏创造力。两队都有4次射门入球。在此之前，他们非常令人失望，主场1-4输给了水原!一开始，他们是博彩市场上的大热门，但不出所料，来自投注集团和独立体育投注者的大笔资金涌向了水原，开球时，客队的胜率约为2.40英镑。水原队的进球次数(13胜7负)、射正、射偏(7胜3负)都比他们多。此前，仁川队在韩国杯1 / 4决赛中客场输给了蔚山队。东道主虽然只以1比0取胜，但在这场比赛中还是有一定的优势。蔚山队的进球次数(17胜3负)、射正次数(11胜2负)、射偏次数(6胜1负)大幅增加。他们也产生了更多的预期目标(xG)。仁川队的防守确实很好，但我仍然需要提到蔚山队在创造得分机会方面效率低下。另一方面，仁川的进攻连一个模型都没有

在xG中的速率数。在第23轮比赛中，仁川客场2比0战胜光州。考虑到上赛季的第三名，光州本赛季的表现相当令人失望。是的，光州在这场比赛中远没有达到最佳状态，但仁川确实打出了本赛季最好的比赛之一。是的，在一个好的日子里，他们可以发挥出高水平，但是这个赛季的好表现已经非常罕见了。仁川队虽然有2次射正，但光州队的进攻(159比91)和危险进攻(125比61)更多。尽管光州在这场比赛中表现不佳，但最后的比分并不能说明球场上发生的事情!我不会过分强调这个人的出色表现。毕竟这场比赛是在7月14日举行的。

济州岛队的表现比上个赛季有所提高——比排名反映的要多。他们上赛季排名第九。他们目前在积分榜上排名第8，积分为32分。然而，他们的期望点数(xPTS)是35.11。他们的比分差是26:35。然而，他们的xG数量是31.03。此外，他们的期望进球数(xGA)为32.14。在最近两场比赛中，济州岛队击败了仁川队。在6月26日的第26轮比赛中，济州岛队主场1-0获胜。他们的控球率为55%，而且射门次数(11比6)、射正、射偏(7比4)、角球次数(7比1)也比仁川多。今年4月，济州岛队在仁川顺义竞技场公园击败了仁川队，在博彩市场上处于明显的劣势。比赛相对平衡——两队的射门次数和尝试次数相同。然而，仁川绝对被博彩公司高估了，而且本赛季他们参加了很多比赛。

济州岛队在最近4场比赛中赢了3场。在上一场比赛中，他们在主场以1比0击败了卫冕冠军蔚山HD，他们的表现非常出色，尤其是在防守端。当然，在这场比赛中最受欢迎的蔚山队只有一次射门和4次射门!作为一个团队，东道主的防守非常有组织!然而，济州岛队的进攻也很强大，他们有14次射门和6次射正!在此之前，济州岛毫无疑问离他们的最佳状态还差得很远，在客场0-2输给了江原，他们是绝对的弱者。然而，最后的分数是误导性的……在此之前，他们在一场韩国杯比赛中客场1-0击败金浦，尽管东道主踢得出奇地好!在第23轮比赛中，他们击败了非常危险的球队浦项，浦项目前排名第3，上赛季排名第2，比常规赛落后58分。虽然在博彩市场上处于劣势，但济州岛队的射门次数、射门次数(16次)、射偏次数、角球次数、进攻次数、危险进攻次数等都有所增加。最后，我想说的是，济州岛队本赛季的主场成绩在联赛中排名第四，拿到了24分!在他们的球迷面前，我希望他们积极主动，给状态不佳的客队施加压力!