Malmo FF VS PAOK Salonika

Malmö welcome PAOK Saloniki for this UEFA Champions League Qualification round 3 first leg clash at Eleda Stadion early Wednesday morning Beijing time. Football enthusiasts and us serious, profit-hungry bettors can expect a match of somewhat good quality by this competition's 3rd round standards here! Most importantly, we have yet another very promising betting opportunity! We have won 10 of the last 11 picks  betting on the Champions League / CL Qualification ! I will post a preview on other Champions League Qualification games later. The visitors are a Greek team, the hosts come from Sweden. As a whole the Greek Super League is only moderately better than the Swedish Allsvenkan but the very best Greek teams, Olympiakos, Panathinaikos, AEK Athens and of course PAOK are better than the top-teams in Allsvenskan – in terms of pure class.. For example Olympiakos beat Fiorentina, a pretty strong Italian team, in the Conference League final at the end of last season! However, we must remember that the home advantage is substantial in most UEFA's international club games.. Let's take a closer look at this game..

In their last game PAOK faced a surprisingly good team from Bosnia & Herzegovina, Borac Banja Luka. It was the 2nd round of Qualification. PAOK won the first leg at home only 3-2 but were the much better team on the pitch! Indeed, they recorded many more goal attempts (11-6), shots on target (7-3), corner kicks, attacks and especially dangerous attacks – 107-60 to be precise. In the 2nd leg PAOK played a terrific, tactically smart game! Even a draw would have been enough for them to qualify but they used one of their eight goal attempts, winning 1-0. I was impressed by the way they suffocated Banja Luka's offense – allowing them just one shot on goal – even despite the fact that Banja Luka tried to be active and were boosted by some 9000 fans. PAOK also recorded many more corner kicks, attacks and dangerous attacks in this game. The difference between Malmo and PAOK is considerable in all areas of the game. However, the Greek Super League has not started yet – Malmö have played 16 matches in the Allsvenskan. This significantly benefits the Swedish team. However, the two games against Banja Luka surely helped PAOK a lot! They seemed to play pretty well as a team against the Bosnians but can – and have to – improve if they want to beat Malmö -  in Sweden. The bookmakers see Malmö as solid favourites - offering odds of around 2.30 to win and this is way too low. According to my sophisticated data-based analysis this game is a coin toss – a 50/50 game without a favourite. We will take the PAOK +0.5 goals handicap option. The PAOK players are more skilled and faster - on average - than those of the hosts. PAOK can play in various different ways - ie. have a high ball possession or let the opponent keep the ball and go for deadly counter attacks after transitions.. I believe they will be pretty defensive here  -especially early on - observing the way Malmö play - looking for weaknesses.. Malmö, on the other hand, "have to" push for the win in front of their loud and demanding fans. In Greece in the 2nd leg Malmö will probably be in trouble – PAOK are an extremely strong team in Thessaloniki and have extremely enthusiastic – even a bit "crazy" fans.. PAOK are the reigning champions of Greece and were very strong last season! They improved a lot from the previous season and the bookies do not seem to have fully realized this.. Indeed, PAOK were undervalued in many international games last season. In my expert opinion PAOK  even have a decent chance of even making it to the Champions League group stage. Of course to do this they will have to be at their best and probably need a touch of luck in terms of the draw (what opponents they will face in round four – should they beat Malmö, of course. I want to remind my fans how strong PAOK were last season: They for example defeated a pretty good German team, Frankfurt, away from home as big underdogs on the betting market! Moreover, they made it to the Conference League quarter-finals last season but were eventually eliminated by Club Brugge, a very strong Belgian team. PAOK are the reigning champions of Greece and were very strong last season! They took 60 points and scored 66 goals. This was the biggest number in the Greek Super League. Furthermore, they allowed only 21 goals – which was the smaller number – together with Panathinaikos, in this league. Let's also remember that according to a well-known and respected German source, Transfermarkt.com, PAOK are the bigger team here - by a wide margin.. Indeed, their players are valued at an estimated total of 100 million euros. The Malmö squad is valued at around 42 million euros. This is a little too high.

Malmö have lost three of their last five games – winning 2/5. Malmö eliminated a very small team from the Faroe Island, Klaksvik, in the previous round. The aggregate was 6-4. They lost the 2nd leg 2-3 at Við Djúpumýrar in front of some 1250 spectators. Malmö were priced around 1.35 to win the game - clearly too low. However, they, realistically speaking, got the job done at home, winning 4-1 as massive favourites, of course. They were priced around 1.05-1.07 to qualify by the bookies. Yes, Klaksvik upset for example Hungarian Ferencvaros and Swedish Häcken last season - making it to the UEFA Europa Conference League group stage but they were much better then than they are now. Indeed, they are in 3rd place in the very low-level Faroe Islands Premier League – nine points behind Vikingur. Their run last season was fine but I will not give Malmö a lot of credit for beating Klaksvik.. They did what was expected from them.. Allowing a team of Klaksvik's caliber the score four goals is a bit worrying but Malmö were not firing on all cylinders - avoiding injuries and not being 100% concentrated in the 2nd leg..

Before eliminating Klaksvik Malmö faced Sirius – twice in a row! They first lost to Sirius at home!  It was a fine 1-0 win from this pretty small team compared to Malmö. An excellent defensive performance from Sirius was the key to victory. They were priced close to 10.00 to win on the betting market – which was clearly too high.. Sirius had less scoring chances than Malmö, which was expected but still recorded 143 attacks – a relatively high number.. Malmö's number was 168. I want to mention that  Malmö should not lose to teams of Sirius level – especially at home – or Klaksvik even away from home - if they want to even dream of qualifying for the Champions League group stage..  They should crush opponents of this level - even dominate them.. Even in this scenario I would be surprised if they qualified for the group stage.. They actually did do this, three years ago, but are simply not at the same level this season.. Moreover, they had a lot of luck on their way to the group stage..   In round 15, on the 19th of July, Malmö scored two pretty late goals at Studenternas IP – betting Sirius 4-3 in the end but allowing Sirius to score three goals is not a good sign.. Sirius fought hard and - at least tried to  play active football - when given a chance to do so.. Malmö, unsurprisingly - had simply had too much individual skill and offensive power in this game.. As a team Malmö did not impress me and were  - at times - imbalanced on the pitch.  Yes, they deserved to win though as they generated more in xG. Both teams had four big  scoring chances. Malmö hardly very rarely face opponents of PAOK's caliber and would need a lot of luck - or improve significantly to eliminate PAOK! Malmö top the Allsvenskan standings with 38 points but have not been dominant this year. Djurgården are only three points away. Malmö have scored 44 goals and allowed 16. However, their number of expected goals (xG) is "only 39.12 and number of expected points (xPTS) is 35.03.

马尔默VS萨洛尼卡

Malmö欢迎萨洛尼基PAOK参加北京时间周三凌晨在埃莱达球场举行的欧冠资格赛第三轮首回合比赛。足球爱好者和我们这些认真的、追求利润的投注者可以期待一场质量稍好一些的比赛，以本届比赛的第三轮标准来看!最重要的是，我们还有另一个非常有前途的赌博机会!我们在过去的11次欧冠/欧冠资格赛中赢了10次!稍后我会发布其他欧冠资格赛的预览。客队是希腊队，东道主是瑞典队。总的来说，希腊超级联赛只比瑞典的奥尔斯旺斯好一点点，但是最好的希腊球队，奥林匹亚科斯，帕纳辛奈科斯，雅典AEK，当然还有PAOK，都比奥尔斯旺斯坎的顶级球队要好——就纯粹的水平而言。例如，奥林匹亚科斯在上赛季末的联赛决赛中击败了佛罗伦萨，这是一支相当强大的意大利球队!然而，我们必须记住，在欧足联的大多数国际俱乐部比赛中，主场优势是实质性的。让我们来仔细看看这个游戏。

在他们的上一场比赛中，PAOK面对的是来自波斯尼亚和黑塞哥维那的一支令人惊讶的优秀球队——巴尼亚卢卡队。这是第二轮资格赛。PAOK在主场仅以3-2获胜，但他们在球场上表现要好得多!事实上，他们的进球次数(11胜6负)、射正次数(7胜3负)、角球、进攻，尤其是危险的进攻——确切地说是107胜60负。在第二回合的比赛中，PAOK踢了一场精彩的、战术高明的比赛!即使一场平局也足以让他们晋级，但他们用了8次进球中的一次，以1-0获胜。我对他们压制巴尼亚卢卡进攻的方式印象深刻——只允许他们一次射门——尽管巴尼亚卢卡试图活跃起来，并得到了大约9000名球迷的支持。PAOK在这场比赛中也有更多的角球，进攻和危险进攻。马尔默和PAOK在游戏的各个方面都有很大的不同。然而，希腊超级联赛还没有开始- Malmö已经在阿尔斯温斯坎打了16场比赛。这对瑞典队非常有利。然而，对巴尼亚卢卡的两场比赛确实帮助了PAOK很多!他们在对阵波斯尼亚的比赛中表现不错，但如果他们想在瑞典击败Malmö，他们还需要提高。博彩公司认为Malmö是最受欢迎的——提供2.30左右的赔率，这太低了。根据我复杂的基于数据的分析，这是一场掷硬币的游戏——一场没有最爱的50/50的游戏。我们将采用PAOK +0.5目标障碍选项。平均而言，PAOK的球员比东道主的球员技术更娴熟，速度更快。PAOK可以以各种不同的方式发挥作用。有一个高球控球，或者让对手控球，在转换后进行致命的反击。我相信他们在这里会有很强的防守能力——尤其是在早期——观察Malmö的打法——寻找弱点。Malmö，另一方面，“必须”在他们喧闹和苛刻的球迷面前争取胜利。在希腊的第二回合Malmö可能会遇到麻烦——PAOK在塞萨洛尼基是一支非常强大的球队，他们的球迷非常热情，甚至有点“疯狂”。PAOK是希腊的卫冕冠军，上个赛季非常强大!他们比上个赛季进步了很多，而博彩公司似乎还没有完全意识到这一点。事实上，在上个赛季的许多国际比赛中，PAOK都被低估了。在我看来，PAOK甚至有相当大的机会进入欧冠小组赛。当然，要做到这一点，他们必须处于最佳状态，可能需要一点运气(他们将在第四轮面对的对手-如果他们击败Malmö，当然。)我想提醒我的球迷上个赛季PAOK有多强大:比如，他们在客场击败了一支相当不错的德国球队法兰克福，在博彩市场上他们是大输家!此外，他们上个赛季打进了联盟杯1 / 4决赛，但最终被比利时强队布鲁日俱乐部淘汰。PAOK是希腊的卫冕冠军，上个赛季非常强大!他们得了60分，进了66个球。这是希腊超级联赛中最大的数字。此外，他们和帕纳辛奈科斯在这个联赛中只丢了21个球，这是较小的数字。让我们也记住，根据一个著名的和受人尊敬的德国消息来源，Transfermarkt.com, PAOK在这里是更大的球队-远远领先。事实上，他们的球员估计总价值为1亿美元

Malmö在最近5场比赛中输了3场，2胜5负。Malmö在上一轮淘汰了来自法罗岛的一支非常小的球队Klaksvik。总比分是6比4。在1250多名观众面前，他们在Við Djúpumýrar以2比3输掉了第2场比赛。Malmö的价格在1.35左右，显然太低了。然而，现实地说，他们在主场完成了任务，4-1获胜，当然是大热门。博彩公司对它们的定价在1.05-1.07左右。是的，克拉克斯维克上赛季击败了匈牙利费伦瓦罗斯队和瑞典Häcken队，他们进入了欧联杯小组赛，但他们比现在强多了。事实上，他们在低水平的法罗群岛联赛中排名第三，比维金古尔落后9分。他们上赛季的表现不错，但我不会给Malmö太多的信任，因为他们击败了克拉克斯维克。他们做了人们期望他们做的事。让克拉克斯维克这样的球队进四球有点令人担忧，但Malmö我们并没有火力全开——避免了伤病，也没有在第二回合100%集中精力。

在消灭克拉克斯维克之前Malmö面对小天狼星——连续两次!他们第一次输给小天狼星是在主场!与Malmö相比，这支小球队以1-0的比分取得了胜利。小天狼星出色的防守表现是胜利的关键。在博彩市场上，他们的价格接近10.00美元，这显然太高了……小天狼星得分的机会比Malmö少，这是预料之中的，但仍然记录了143次进攻——相对较高的数字……Malmö的号码是168。我想提一下，Malmö不应该输给天狼星级别的球队——尤其是在主场——或者克拉克斯维克，即使是在客场——如果他们还想梦想进入欧冠小组赛的话……他们应该碾碎这个级别的对手，甚至主宰他们。即使在这种情况下，如果他们能晋级小组赛，我也会感到惊讶。三年前，他们确实做到了这一点，但本赛季他们根本没有达到同样的水平。此外，他们在小组赛出线的路上运气也很好。在7月19日的第15轮比赛中，Malmö在学生网球场的最后时刻打进了两个进球——赌小天狼星4-3获胜，但却让小天狼星进了三个球，这不是一个好兆头。小天狼星努力战斗，只要有机会，他至少会积极踢足球……Malmö，不出所料——在这场比赛中，我的个人技术和进攻能力都太强了。作为一支球队，Malmö并没有给我留下深刻的印象，有时在球场上也不平衡。是的，他们理应获胜，因为他们在xG上创造了更多。两支球队都有四次得分机会。Malmö几乎很少面对像PAOK这样水平的对手，需要很多运气——或者有很大的提高才能淘汰PAOK!Malmö以38分排名阿尔斯温斯坎榜首，但今年并没有占据统治地位。djurgajrden只差三分。Malmö进了44球，丢了16球。然而，他们的预期进球数(xG)只有39.12，预期得分(xPTS)是35.03。