Tromso IL VS KuPS

KuPS challenge Tromso in this UEFA Europa Conference League Qualification 2nd round second leg battle at Romssa Arena in Tromsø very early Friday morning Beijing time. "Challenge is, in fact, all I believe they are capable of.. A match of pretty mediocre quality by the Qualification 2nd round standards is on the cards here. The hosts are a Norwegian team, the visitors come from my home country, Finland. I know Finnish Veikkausliiga teams extremely well. In fact we have won seven picks in a row in both the Norwegian Eliteserien and the Finnish Veikkausliiga! The level of this league is very low by European standards. The fact that HJK Helsinki have qualified for the UEFA Europa League group stage once and for the Conference League group stage twice in the last three years does not change this fact.. The Eliteserien is not top-10 in Europe but it is still much better as a whole than Veikkausliiga! More specifically, the tempo is much higher and the average skill level of the players is also better.  Finnish teams, including KuPS, do, however, often play tactically pretty mature football.

Norway is one of the richest countries in the World and has a strong football culture. A lot of money, mainly from selling oil and natural gas, has flown into football as well. In Finland, on the other hand, ice-hockey is the biggest sport in terms of number of spectators, money circulating within and around the sport. In Veikkausliiga the average yearly salary is only about 25 000 euros - whereas the average salary in Finland is about 35000-40 000 euros. In Norway most players are paid quite well.. Finnish teams, even the four-times-in-a-row champions, HJK, rarely grab a win, or even a draw, away from home against better - or even teams about the same level as them - from other countries.. For example, they lost to a pretty lowly Lithuanian team, Panevėžys, 0-3, on the road some weeks ago as very big favourites on the betting market – priced around 1.40 to win by the bookmakers at the time of kickoff! HJK were, in the end, eliminated 1-4 on aggregate. What a shameful performance it was from the clearly overvalued HJK.. For clarification, by pure class HJK are still much better than KuPS.. Yes, a Finnish team Ilves eliminated Austria Vienna after penalties yesterday (local time). They were priced around 4.00 to qualify before the first leg so it was not a massive surprise, after all..  I was very disappointed with Austria Vienna's performance, especially in terms of defensive quality. Yes, they were the better team on the pitch - winning 3-2 after 90 minutes but only generated a little more in xG than Ilves. It seemed as if Ilves were "more hungry" than the hosts to qualify - which is weird..  They played active football, with high confidence. KuPS have played much more passive football on the road in the last three seasons in UEFA's club competition qualification games. They have never gotten even close to making it to the group stage though..Ilves qualified after penalties – 5-4 on aggregate. Unfortunately this time we lost the bet ( Austria Vienna -1.5 goals) but have done well long-term betting on Finnish teams' international games!

KuPS currently occupy the 2nd place in the Veikkausliiga standings with 34 points in their pocket. However, their number of expected points (xPTS) is "only" 29.63.. They started the season well but have declined performance-wise in the summer.. Even their head coach, the excellent Jani Honkavaara, has said this out loud in the Finnish football media.. KuPS' rich owner, investment banker Ari Lahti, cut the team's player budget significantly from last season and KuPS have a pretty narrow squad, with many talented but inexperienced players, for example O. Ruoppi and M. Siltanen. Having to play Qualification games and Veikkausliiga has started to affect them.. The same happened in 2022 and 2023.. I want to emphasize that the KuPS offense lacks pure goal-scoring skill and creativity compared to the other top-4 teams, HJK, Ilves and SJK. Indeed, all these three teams have scored at least three more goals in the Veikkausliiga than KuPS.. KuPS have lost three of their last five Veikkausliiga matches. In their last game KuPS had to work hard to beat the worst team in Veikkausliiga in terms of pure class, Ekenäs IF. 1-2 was the final score and KuPS scored in the 74th minute and took the win trough V. Vehkonen's own goal in the 87th minute. KuPS did deserve to win but their performance as a whole was far from impressive! In fact, Ekenäs IF had a few chances on counter attacks to make it 2-0.. The hosts recorded five shots on goal, KuPS managed eight. KuPS were priced around 1.50 to win at the time of kickoff – this was clearly too low! 

Before the 1st leg against Tromso, KuPS beat FC Lahti 1-0, the rock-bottom team, at home through J. Oksanen's fine goal in the 73rd minute. They were priced around 1.45 to win by the bookmakers and did deserve the hard-fought win but I did not like their performance as a whole, especially in terms of offensive speed and creativity. They recorded only three shots on target. KuPS defended very well though – allowing FC Lahti very few scoring chances.. Defending well will, sadly for KuPS, not save them against Tromso - unless they get a few lucky goals...  In the first round of Conference League Qualification, KuPS swept past a terribly bad team from Luxembourg, UNA Strassen 5-0 on aggregate. Yes, they were the better team but failed to win the first leg, away from home. No goals were scored. The hosts even had more shots on goal and dangerous attacks. KuPS were priced around 1.55 to win by the bookies. This was yet another example of a Finnish team being overvalued when playing abroad.. Art home KuPS recorded more goal attempts (14-9) and shots on goal – 7-1. The visitors had 51% ball possession though. The final score flatters KuPS.. Tromso won the first leg 1-0 through L. Nordå's goal in the 54th minute. The match was a relatively balanced one as a whole. KuPS will have to be active in Norway as they are trailing and I believe Tromso will "punish" them in transitions.. I want to highlight that KuPS very rarely play against an opponent of Tromso's level.. Even if KuPS were to take the lead I expect Tromso, boosted by their loud fans, to come back! Odds of around 1.60 are available on the home win and we will gladly place a bet on the Norwegians!

Tromso finished in 3rd place in the Eliteserien last season! That was a fine achievement from this club with vast overall financial resources, a strong fan-base and a lot of success in the past.. They took 10 points more than Molde, who even qualified for the Conference League Playoffs last season! This season has, however, been much more difficult for Tromso.. Even so, they have improved recently, losing just one of their last six games! They are in 10th place in the Eliteserien with 18 points after 16 rounds of play but their number of xPTS is much higher. Their offense, has in all honesty, been a disappointment, lacking creativity and passing accuracy near the opponent's goal.. They have scored only 18 goals but their number of expected goals (xG) is 23.44. However, we must understand that – hypothetically, of course - in the Eliteserien KuPS would most probably be the worst team – or play in the 2nd tier, the OBOS-Ligaen! Tromso can be deadly on counter attacks and I expect them to "force" KuPS into having a higher ball possession that KuPS would like to have.. In their last game Tromso faced Kristiansund, currently in 9th place, at home and no goals were scored. L. Nordås even missed a penalty in the 33rd minute.. Tromso were very unlucky not to win. Indeed, they generated 3.24 in xG. The visitors managed 0.89. 

Before beating KuPS Tromso defeated Stromsgodset 1-0 away from home  - despite not being even close to their best. Tromso were the underdogs on the betting market. Tromso have looked more confident on the pitch lately than in the early season... Lastly let's take a look at some numbers reflecting the edge Tromso have over KuPS: According to a well-known and respected source, a German website Transfermarkt.com, Tromso are the bigger team here - by very clear margin.. Indeed, their players are valued at an estimated around 15 million euros – this is moderately too low though. The KuPS squad, on the other hand, is valued at only 3.95 million euros. This is too low as well, some 5.50 million would be the accurate number.

特罗姆瑟VS up

北京时间周五凌晨，欧联杯资格赛第二轮第二回合的比赛将在特罗姆瑟的罗姆萨竞技场进行。“事实上，挑战是我相信他们所能做的一切……按照资格赛第二轮的标准，这是一场相当平庸的比赛。东道主是挪威队，客队来自我的祖国芬兰。我非常了解芬兰球队。事实上，我们已经在挪威精英赛和芬兰精英赛中连续七次获得选秀权!按照欧洲的标准，这个联赛的水平很低。在过去的三年里，赫尔辛基HJK曾一次进入欧联杯小组赛，两次进入欧洲联赛小组赛，但这并不能改变这一事实。精英队在欧洲算不上前十，但整体上还是比维克考斯利加强得多!更具体地说，节奏要高得多，球员的平均技术水平也更高。然而，芬兰球队，包括up，确实经常踢战术上相当成熟的足球。

挪威是世界上最富有的国家之一，有着浓厚的足球文化。大量资金，主要来自石油和天然气的销售，也流入了足球领域。另一方面，在芬兰，冰球是观众人数最多的运动，在这项运动内部和周围流动的资金最多。在Veikkausliiga，平均年薪只有25000欧元，而芬兰的平均年薪是35000- 40000欧元。在挪威，大多数球员的薪水都相当高。芬兰队，即使是四连冠的冠军，也很少能在客场战胜其他国家的强队，甚至是与他们水平相当的球队时取得胜利，甚至是平局。例如，几周前，他们在客场以0比3输给了一支非常不起眼的立陶宛球队Panevėžys，他们是博彩市场上的大热门——开球时庄家开出的胜率约为1.40 !最终，hkk以总比分1-4被淘汰。这是多么可耻的表现啊，明显被高估的香港…澄清一下，纯级别的HJK仍然比up好得多。是的，昨天(当地时间)芬兰的伊尔维斯队在点球大战中淘汰了奥地利的维也纳队。在第一回合之前，预选赛门票的定价在4.00左右，所以这并不是一个巨大的惊喜，毕竟……我对奥地利维也纳的表现感到非常失望，尤其是在防守质量方面。是的，他们在球场上表现得更好——90分钟后3-2获胜，但在xG上只比伊尔维斯多一点点。似乎伊尔维斯比东道主“更渴望”晋级——这很奇怪……他们踢得很积极，信心十足。在过去的三个赛季里，在欧足联的俱乐部资格赛中，他们在客场踢得更加被动。尽管如此，他们从来没有接近过小组出线的机会，伊尔维斯在点球后以5:4的总比分出线。不幸的是，这次我们输掉了赌注(奥地利-维也纳-1.5球)，但长期下注芬兰队的国际比赛却做得很好!

目前吉普斯以34分的积分排名第二。然而，他们的期望值(xPTS)“只有”29.63。他们本赛季开局不错，但在夏季表现有所下滑。甚至他们的主教练，优秀的贾尼·洪卡瓦拉，也在芬兰足球媒体上大声说了这句话。up的富有老板、投资银行家阿里·拉赫蒂(Ari Lahti)从上个赛季开始大幅削减了球队的球员预算，up的阵容相当狭窄，有很多有天赋但经验不足的球员，比如O. Ruoppi和M. Siltanen。必须参加资格赛和维甲联赛已经开始影响他们了……同样的事情发生在2022年和2023年。我想强调的是，与其他4强球队(沪深、伊尔维斯和沪深)相比，上城的进攻缺乏纯粹的进球技巧和创造力。事实上，这三支球队在维卡斯利亚联赛的进球数都比库普斯多至少三个。在最近的五场联赛中，up输掉了三场。在他们的上一场比赛中，up必须努力击败在纯级别方面最糟糕的球队Ekenäs IF。最终比分为1比2，在第74分钟，尤普斯攻入一球，并在第87分钟凭借韦科宁的乌龙球取得了胜利。up确实应该获胜，但他们的整体表现远远不够令人印象深刻!事实上，Ekenäs IF有几次反击的机会把比分变成了2-0。东道主有5次射门，卡普斯有8次射门。上调价格在1.5美元左右

在与特罗姆瑟的首回合比赛之前，卡普斯队在主场凭借奥克萨宁在第73分钟的精彩进球，以1比0击败了排名垫底的拉赫蒂队。博彩公司对他们的胜率估计在1.45左右，他们确实应该赢得这场艰苦的胜利，但我不喜欢他们整体的表现，尤其是在进攻速度和创造力方面。他们只射正了三次。不过up的防守很好，让拉赫蒂很少有得分机会。遗憾的是，对up来说，防守好并不能挽救他们对阵特罗姆瑟的比赛——除非他们得到几个幸运的进球……在西部联赛资格赛的第一轮比赛中，尤普斯以总比分5比0横扫了一支来自卢森堡的糟糕球队UNA Strassen。是的，他们是更好的球队，但没能赢得首回合，客场。没有进球。东道主甚至有更多的射门和危险的进攻。博彩公司将up的价格定在1.55左右。这是芬兰队在国外比赛时被高估的又一个例子。阿尔特本场比赛的进球次数(14胜9负)和射门次数(7胜1负)更多。客队有51%的控球率。最后的比分对up很有利。特罗姆瑟在第54分钟凭借北德夫的进球1-0赢得了第一回合的胜利。这场比赛总体上是比较平衡的。由于他们落后，他们必须在挪威积极行动，我相信特罗姆瑟会在过渡中“惩罚”他们。我想强调的是，up很少与特罗姆瑟这样水平的对手交手。即使up取得领先，我希望特罗姆瑟在他们响亮的球迷的鼓舞下，能回来!大约1.60的赔率是可在主场获胜，我们很乐意把赌注押在挪威人!

上赛季特罗姆瑟在精英联赛中获得了第三名!这是这家拥有庞大财政资源、强大球迷基础和过去许多成功的俱乐部取得的一个很好的成就。他们比莫尔德多拿了10分，莫尔德上赛季甚至进入了联盟季后赛!然而，这个赛季对特罗姆瑟来说更加艰难。即便如此，他们最近也有所进步，最近六场比赛只输了一场!16轮比赛后，他们以18分排名精英赛第10位，但他们的xPTS数量要高得多。老实说，他们的进攻令人失望，缺乏创造力和在对手门前传球的准确性。虽然只进了18个球，但他们的预期进球数(xG)是23.44个。然而，我们必须明白——当然是假设——在精英联赛中，up很可能是最差的球队——或者在第二梯队，OBOS-Ligaen比赛!特罗姆瑟的反击是致命的，我希望他们能“迫使”库普斯拥有更高的控球率，这是库普斯想要的。在上一场比赛中，特罗姆瑟主场迎战目前排名第九的克里斯蒂安松，双方没有进球。诺达帕斯甚至在第33分钟罚丢了一个点球。特罗姆瑟很不幸没能赢。事实上，他们在xG中产生了3.24。客队的成绩是0.89。

在击败对手之前，特罗姆瑟在客场1-0击败了斯特罗姆斯戈塞特，尽管他们还没有达到最佳状态。特罗姆瑟队在博彩市场上处于劣势。特罗姆瑟最近在球场上看起来比赛季初更有信心了。最后，让我们来看看一些数据，这些数据反映了特罗姆瑟对up的优势:根据一个知名和受人尊敬的消息来源，德国网站Transfermarkt.com，特罗姆瑟在这里是一个更大的团队——非常明显的差距。事实上，他们球员的身价估计在1500万欧元左右——尽管这个数字略低。另一方面，up队的价值仅为395万欧元。这个数字也太低了，准确的数字是550万左右。