Stabaek VS Sandnes Ulf

Stabaek welcome Sandnes for this OBOS-Ligaen round 12 clash at Nadderud Stadion in Bekkestua very early Thursday morning Beijing time. However, in reality Stabaek have played 15 games, and the visitors 14 matches in this league this season. This is the second tier of Norwegian football. The level of this league is pretty poor by European standards -  for a second tier I mean. Football fans and us serious football bettors – with a long-term profit in mind - can expect a match of pretty mediocre quality by this league's standards here. Most importantly, we have yet another extremely lucrative betting opportunity here.. We have won five of the last six picks! Stabaek were relegated from the 1st tier, Eliteserien, to this level. They had a poor season with a lot of problems on the pitch. They took only 29 points in 30 games. There were - and still are – some rumours about a lot of negativity within the team.. Stabaek currently occupy only 8th place in this league with a total of 16 clubs. On paper they look strong but have not played well as a team... They have, in fact, won only six of the 15 games in this league. Yes, they can improve but the bookies seem to give this factor too much emphasis here. I have not seen anything that would indicate that a quick and significant improvement is in the cards. Stabaek have grabbed only 23 points – 10 less than Våleranga, the current leaders. Their score difference is not that great.. Indeed, they do have a lot of firepower and have scored 33 goals.. However, their defence, despite the decent structure, has not been solid at all.. They have allowed 29 goals, more than Åsane, currently in 13th place! Stabaek have been very vulnerable to fast counter attacks.. This is something Sandnes are, in fact, pretty good at.. They will surely mainly concentrate on defending – and would be happy with a draw. The goal expectancy here is higher than on average in this league but it is still lower than the bookies estimate.. The probability of under 3.5 total goals to be scored is 53.50%. With the expected lineups, even taking the mediocre home advantage into account - the current odds of around 1.40-1.45 offered by the biggest bookies are way too low! The Sandnes +1.5 goals handicap is the professional bettor's choice here. We have a 63% chance of winning. The odds of around 1.75 are widely available!

Sandnes cannot match the hosts in any area of the game, there is no doubt about this. However, they are still undervalued on the betting market here. Last season they did pretty well, finishing in 11th place with 37 points. Their number of expected points (xPTS) was 40.03. This season has been difficult for them and I have, as a result, moderately lowered their power rating that reflects the teams' pure class.. The bookies, on the other hand, have overreacted.. Sandnes are currently in 15th place with 10 points in their pocket. However, their number of xPTS is 15.67 and can improve significantly. They should defend much better as a team – the midfielders should be much more active in defending. Indeed, they have allowed way too many goals – 39 to be precise. However, their number of expected goals allowed (xGA) is "only" 33.56. They have scored 18 goals and their number of expected goals (xG) is 22.35. Their offense does, in all honesty, lack some individual skill.. The hosts have not won any of their last three games. In their last game they were terrible, especially defensively, losing to Moss 1-4 at home as clear favourites! Moss had only 43% ball possession but recorded many more goal attempts and shots on goal. Before this Stabaek were priced around 2.05 in an away game but failed to beat  a pretty limited team, Raufoss. No goals were scored in this pretty low-level clash. No, Sandnes have not won a game since May..  In their last game they played well though - taking a point from Bryne, 4th place at the moment, on the road through a 1-1 draw. Both teams had the same number of goal attempts, shots on goal and shots off target. Sandnes were priced around 8.00 by the bookies to win – this way way too high! Before this, Sandnes lost to a very strong team, Våleranga, 0-8 away from home. Yes, the hosts were very good but the shots on goal number was "only" 11-4 in their favour. Indeed, the final score is very misleading and probably affects the odds a lot here as well... In round 13 they lost to Mjondalen 2-3 at home but recorded many more goal attempts (17-11), shots on goal and shots off target! They could easily have won the game!

斯塔巴赫VS桑内斯·乌尔夫

北京时间周四凌晨，斯塔巴赫欢迎桑内斯参加在贝克斯图亚纳德鲁德球场举行的欧博vs利加恩第12轮比赛。然而，在现实中，斯塔巴赫本赛季在联赛中打了15场比赛，客队打了14场比赛。这是挪威足球的第二梯队。按照欧洲的标准，这个联赛的水平相当低——我的意思是，对于一个二线球队来说。足球迷和我们这些着眼长远利益的严肃的足球投注者，可以期待一场以联赛标准衡量的质量相当平庸的比赛。最重要的是，我们还有另一个非常有利可图的赌博机会……我们赢了最近6次选秀中的5次!斯塔巴克从第一梯队，精英队降级到这个级别。他们度过了一个糟糕的赛季，球场上有很多问题。他们在30场比赛中只得到29分。过去和现在都有一些关于车队内部消极情绪的谣言。斯塔巴克目前在这个联赛中只排在第8位，总共有16家俱乐部。名义上他们看起来很强大，但作为一个团队却打得不好。事实上，他们在这个联盟的15场比赛中只赢了6场。是的，他们可以提高，但博彩公司似乎在这里过于强调这个因素。我没有看到任何迹象表明会有快速而显著的改善。斯塔巴赫只拿到了23分，比目前的领头羊瓦纳尔兰加少了10分。他们的分数差距不是很大。的确，他们火力强大，已经进了33个球。然而，他们的防守，尽管结构不错，却一点也不稳固。他们丢了29个球，比Åsane还多，目前排名第13 !斯塔巴克在快速反击面前非常脆弱。事实上，这是桑德兰人很擅长的……他们肯定会把主要精力放在防守上，并且会对平局感到高兴。这里的进球预期高于这个联赛的平均水平，但仍然低于博彩公司的估计。总进球数少于3.5个的概率为53.50%。考虑到预期的阵容，即使考虑到平庸的主场优势——目前最大的博彩公司提供的1.40-1.45的赔率也太低了!桑德内斯+1.5球的障碍是职业赌徒在这里的选择。我们有63%的机会赢。1.75左右的几率是普遍存在的!

桑德兰斯在比赛的任何方面都无法与东道主匹敌，这是毫无疑问的。然而，在这里的博彩市场上，它们仍被低估。上个赛季他们表现不错，以37分排名第11位。他们的期望值(xPTS)为40.03。这个赛季对他们来说很困难，因此，我适度降低了他们的能量值，这反映了球队的纯粹等级。另一方面，博彩公司反应过度了。桑德内斯目前以10分的成绩排在第15位。但是，它们的xPTS数量为15.67，并且可以显著提高。作为一个团队，他们的防守应该做得更好——中场球员在防守中应该更加积极。事实上，他们丢了太多的球——准确地说是39个。然而，他们的预期进球数(xGA)“只有”33.56。他们打进了18球，他们的预期进球数(xG)为22.35。老实说，他们的进攻确实缺乏一些个人技巧。东道主在最近三场比赛中没有赢过一场。在上一场比赛中，他们表现得很糟糕，尤其是在防守端，他们在主场1-4输给了莫斯。莫斯只有43%的控球率，但他的射门次数和射门次数要多得多。在此之前，斯塔巴赫在一场客场比赛的价格约为2.05英镑，但未能击败实力相当有限的球队劳弗斯。在这场相当低级的冲突中没有进球。不，桑德兰斯自5月以来还没有赢过一场比赛。在上一场比赛中，他们打得很好，从布莱恩那里拿了一分，目前排名第四，客场1-1战平。两支球队的射门次数、射正次数和射偏次数相同。博彩公司将桑恩斯的获胜价格定在8英镑左右——这种方式太高了!在此之前，桑德内斯客场0-8输给了一支非常强大的球队——v<s:1>莱兰加。是的，东道主踢得很好，但他们的射门次数“只有”11比4。事实上，最终比分很容易误导人，可能也会很大程度上影响这里的赔率……在第13轮比赛中，他们在主场以2-3不敌Mjondalen，但他们的进球次数(17-11)、射正和射偏次数更多!他们本可以轻松赢得这场比赛的!