The New Saints (TNS) VS Ferencvaros TC

TNS welcome Ferencvaros for this UEFA Champions League Qualification round 2 second leg battle at Park Hall in Oswestry very early Wednesday morning Beijing time. Football fans and us serious bettors – with a long-term profit in mind - can expect a match of relatively average quality by this competition's standards here. The main reason for this is the massive difference in class between the two teams.. Most importantly, we have yet another very lucrative betting opportunity here.. We have won five picks in a row betting on the UEFA Champions League/ Qualification for the best international club competition in the world!

The hosts are a Welsh team, the visitors come from Hungary. A relatively one-sided affair is on the cards here. Yes, the home advantage is, of course there, but the capacity of the "stadium" is only 2000! This is a very low number for any team playing international games - let alone Champions league Qualification.. This amount of fans will surely not intimidate the Ferencvaros players at all.. Most of them are used to playing big games, against opponents of totally different caliber than the lowly TNS – in front of a very hostile and loud crowd! Yes, the TNS players will surely fight in front of their fans but it is, in reality, all over for them now as Ferencvaros won the first leg 5-0 last week. In this kind of situation the home advantage is hardly ever at its biggest as there is not even a 0.5% chance of TNS qualifying for the 3rd round. If the score was say 0-2 after on aggregate the situation would be a lot different.. Yes, Ferencvaros' excellent Dutch head coach,  Pascal Jansen,51, will surely do some squad rotation here but I believe this affects the odds way too much here. The TNS manager might, in fact, do the same, to some extent at least, to prepare his men for the upcoming domestic league season and the next round of qualification – to a lesser competition.. I want to highlight that Ferencvaros have a deep squad full of quality players eager to prove their skills! We must understand that practically all Ferenvaros players are better than the TNS players! Ferencvaros' regular starters playing at 80-85% of their best level, for 45-60 minutes should make the difference here. Yes, technically the visitors could lost by a margin of four goals and still qualify but I do not expect  Pascal Jansen to allow laziness at this stage of the season. Of course both teams will try to avoid injuries though. I do not very often recommend a bet on a team that lead by a huge margin after the first leg but will make an exception here. It is, after all, all about the odds in professional football betting.. Odds of around 1.40 on the away win are widely available on the betting market at the time of posting this in-depth analysis. For the fans wanting to go for bigger odds, the -1.5 goals handicap option is a good choice. Odds of 2.05 are available and the chance of winning is 57%!

I want to emphasize that the difference between these two teams is massive, in all areas of the game.. The visitors are at a different level especially in terms of players' individual skill level. I recommend my fans to pay close attention to the first touch on the ball of both teams' players.. TNS do try to play organized football and fight hard but this will most probably not be enough - not even close -  even at home.. Ferencvaros were dominant in the first leg, recording 13 goal attempts. Furthermore, TNS managed only one shot on target – Ferencvaros managed seven. Let's all remember that the Hungarian OTP Bank Liga is of massively better quality as a whole than the very lowly Welsh Cymru Premier.. Most talented young Welsh players move to "abroad" - especially to England which is, of course, technically the same country (United Kingdom) -  to build a serious professional career. According to a well-known and respected German website, Transfermarkt.com, Ferencvaros are the bigger team here - by a huge margin.. Indeed, their players are valued at an estimated approximately 58 million euros. The TNS squad, on the other hand, is valued at only about 2.70 million euros. This is, in my expert opinion, still a bit too high though.. Three of the hosts'' players are overvalued. I want to highlight that the 2.70 million is an extremely low number by the Champions League Qualification 2nd round standards!

Ferencvaros were dominant in the OTP Bank Liga last season, taking a great 74 points. Paks, who finished in 2nd place, managed to take only 58 points! TNS, too, won the very lowly Cymru Premier League easily last season. They did not lose a single match. 30 rounds were played. I will not let this fool me at all! TNS grabbed 92 points but their number of expected points (xPTS) was "only" 83.45 Ferencvaros have not lost any of their last seven games, despite facing mainly dangerous opponents. Before crushing TNS they played a 2-2 draw at a neutral location. The opponent was a decent English Premier League team, West Ham, who even won the Conference League in 2023, beating Fiorentina in the final. Let's remember that West Ham are a much bigger team than Ferencvaros in terms of players' estimated total market value. Furthermore, the English Premier League is the best league in the world.. Before this Ferencvaros comfortably defeated a decent Croatian team, Istra 1961, at a neutral location. The format was an unusual one: 2x60 minutes. Both of these games were friendlies.

TNS, on the other hand, played a 1-1 draw with an extremely small English team, Macclesfield - before being humiliated in Budapest. It was a friendly game. Before this it was a 1-1 draw away from home against a pretty lame team from Montenegro, Dedic. Yes, Dedic upset Dinamo Batumi on the road last week, winning 2-0 as big underdogs but recorded only two shots on target, four goal attempts and had just 25% ball possession. Things like this sometimes happen in football - as we all know.. TNS were solid favourites to beat Dedic at home, in the first leg - priced around 1.40 to win on the betting market at the time of kickoff.. It was a Champions League Qualification 1st round battle. In the first leg TNS won 3-0, scoring all three goals in the first half, and deserved to win. However, I want to mention that the final score is misleading.. The ball possession was 53-47% and the visitors had a respectable 10 goal attempts. They also recorded more shots off goal - 7-3. TNS had many more shots on target though. Both teams recorded 92 attacks. I want to highlight that Dedic played even below their normal, already pretty low, level! The second leg at the Podgorica City Stadium was a 1-1 draw and TNS were priced around 2.25 to win. Dedic, however, had 63% ball possession and recorded more goal attempts (16-5), shots on goal, shots off target (7-1), corner kicks (4-1), attacks and dangerous attacks – 95-67. I will not give beating Dedic too much emphasis against a team who are "from another world" compared to Dedic!

GOOD LUCK to all my thousands of fans!

I will post two more picks on the Champions League Qualification today!

该文章通过有道机器翻译，仅供参考:

新圣徒队VS费伦巴罗斯队

北京时间周三凌晨，TNS在奥斯韦斯特里的公园大厅欢迎费伦瓦罗斯参加欧冠资格赛第二轮第二回合的战斗。足球迷和我们这些认真的投注者——考虑到长期利润——可以期待一场相对平均质量的比赛，以这项比赛的标准来看。造成这种情况的主要原因是两支球队的阶级差异很大。最重要的是，我们还有另一个非常有利可图的赌博机会……我们已经连续五次赢得欧洲冠军联赛/世界上最好的国际俱乐部比赛的资格!

东道主是威尔士队，客队来自匈牙利。这是一场相对一边倒的比赛。是的，主场优势当然存在，但“体育场”的容量只有2000人!这对于任何一支参加国际比赛的球队来说都是非常低的数字，更不用说欧冠资格赛了。这么多的球迷肯定吓不倒费伦巴罗斯队的球员。他们中的大多数人都习惯了打大型比赛，面对的对手完全不同于实力低下的TNS——面对的是充满敌意和嘈杂的人群!是的，TNS球员肯定会在他们的球迷面前战斗，但实际上，他们现在已经结束了，因为费伦斯瓦罗斯上周以5比0赢得了首回合比赛。在这种情况下，主场优势很难达到最大，因为TNS甚至没有0.5%的机会进入第3轮。如果总比分是0-2，情况就大不相同了。是的，费伦瓦罗斯出色的荷兰主教练，51岁的帕斯卡·詹森，肯定会在这里进行一些阵容轮换，但我相信这对球队的胜算影响太大了。事实上，至少在某种程度上，TNS的主教练可能也会做同样的事情，让他的球员为即将到来的国内联赛和下一轮资格赛做好准备。我想强调的是，费伦斯瓦罗斯拥有一支实力雄厚的球队，他们都是渴望证明自己技术的优秀球员!我们必须明白，几乎所有的Ferenvaros选手都比TNS选手强!费伦瓦罗斯的首发球员在45-60分钟的时间里发挥出了他们最佳水平的80-85%，这应该会让比赛有所不同。是的，从技术上讲，客队可能会输掉4球，但仍然晋级，但我不希望帕帕斯卡尔·詹森在这个赛季的这个阶段允许懒惰。当然，两支球队都会尽量避免受伤。我通常不会推荐在首回合后以巨大优势领先的球队下注，但在这里我会破例。毕竟，这都是关于职业足球博彩的赔率。在发表这篇深度分析的时候，在投注市场上，客场获胜的赔率约为1.40。对于想要获得更大赔率的球迷来说，-1.5个进球障碍选项是一个不错的选择。赔率为2.05，中奖几率为57%!

我想强调的是，这两支球队在比赛的各个方面都存在巨大的差异。客队处于不同的水平，特别是在球员的个人技术水平方面。我建议我的球迷密切关注双方球员的第一次触球。TNS确实试图踢有组织的足球，努力战斗，但这很可能还不够——甚至还不够——即使是在主场。费伦茨瓦罗斯队在首回合比赛中占据统治地位，他们有13次射门。此外，TNS只有一次射正，而费伦瓦罗斯有7次射正。让我们都记住，匈牙利OTP银行联赛的整体质量要比非常低的威尔士Cymru Premier好得多。大多数有天赋的年轻威尔士球员都去了“国外”——尤其是去了英格兰，当然，从技术上讲，这是同一个国家(英国)——以建立一个严肃的职业生涯。根据德国一家知名且受人尊敬的网站Transfermarkt.com，费伦瓦罗斯在这里是一支更大的球队，而且差距很大。事实上，他们的球员估计价值约为5800万欧元。另一方面，TNS队的价值仅为270万欧元。在我的专家看来，这个价格还是有点太高了。东道主中有三位球员被高估了。我想强调的是，按照欧冠资格赛第二轮的标准，270万是一个非常低的数字!

费伦瓦罗斯上赛季在OTP银行联赛中占据统治地位，拿到了74分。排在第二名的帕克斯只拿到了58分!上个赛季，TNS也轻松赢得了非常低水平的英超联赛。他们没有输过一场比赛。30轮

被打了。我不会让这件事愚弄我的!TNS拿到了92分，但他们的预期得分(xPTS)“只有”83.45分，尽管面对的主要是危险对手，但费伦瓦罗斯最近7场比赛没有输过一场。在击败TNS之前，他们在一个中立的位置打了一个2比2的平局。对手是一支不错的英超球队西汉姆联队(West Ham)，他们甚至在2023年的决赛中击败佛罗伦萨，赢得了联盟杯冠军。让我们记住，就球员的估计总市场价值而言，西汉姆比费伦瓦罗斯要大得多。此外，英超联赛是世界上最好的联赛。在此之前，费伦瓦罗斯在一个中立的地点轻松击败了一支不错的克罗地亚球队，1961年的伊斯特拉。会议的格式很不寻常:2 × 60分钟。两场比赛都是友谊赛。

另一方面，TNS在布达佩斯被羞辱之前，1-1战平了一支非常小的英国球队——麦克尔斯菲尔德。这是一场友谊赛。在此之前，我们在客场1-1战平了一支来自黑山的蹩脚球队，迪迪奇。是的，上周，迪迪奇在客场击败了迪纳摩巴图米，以2比0的比分赢得了大冷门，但他只有2次射正，4次射门，只有25%的控球率。我们都知道，足球场上有时会发生这样的事情。TNS是最有希望在主场击败Dedic的球队，在第一回合比赛中，在开球时，博彩市场上的胜率约为1.40英镑。这是一场欧冠资格赛第一轮的比赛。在首回合比赛中，TNS以3比0获胜，在上半场打进了全部3个进球，他们理应获胜。然而，我想说的是，最后的分数是误导性的。控球率为53比47%，客队有10次进球尝试。他们也记录了更多的射门——7比3。不过，TNS有更多的射门正射。两支球队都有92次进攻。我想强调的是，Dedic的表现甚至低于他们的正常水平，已经相当低了!第二回合在波德戈里察城市体育场进行，双方1-1战平，TNS的胜率在2.25左右。然而，迪迪奇的控球率为63%，他的进球次数(16-5)、射正、射偏(7-1)、角球(4-1)、进攻和危险进攻(95-67)都更多。我不会过多强调击败迪迪奇的球队是“来自另一个世界”。

祝我所有的粉丝们好运!

我将在今天发布更多关于欧冠资格赛的选择!