CANADA - NEW ZEALAND

Huge quality difference.

Although Canada isn’t among the strongest teams in the tournament, they have a good squad with experience. They won the gold at Tokyo 2020, but were eliminated in the group stage in the last year’s World Cup. However, I expect them to reach the latter stages of this tournament.

Have a lot of experience with players like Ashley Lawrence, Jessie Fleming, Kadeisha Buchanan and several players with hundreds of appearances with the national team. A very good balance between defense and attack, well organised, and a difficult team to beat.

They made good performances recently against the USA in some international tournaments, and showed that if they have the chance to score, they have the ambition to do it (3:0 vs Costa Rica, 0:4 vs Paraguay, 6:0 El Salvador, 5:0 Australia…). And I rate New Zealand as a worse team than Australia. After a terrible World Cup, they are definitely coming in good form to this Olympics.

On the other hand, New Zealand is the worst team of the tournament in my opinion. I expect them to finish at the bottom of this group, as I don’t see them able to get points against Canada or France. Even Colombia is a team I see above.

They are lacking experience in the Olympics, with poor results and their plan will be easy here: make a defensive game, trying to hold the draw as much as they can. However, I don’t expect them to be successful doing this.

Yes, they have some players with experience in Europe, such as Jacqui Hand, Indiah-Paige Riley (PSV) or Katie Bowen (Inter Milan), but the majority of their squad are playing in local leagues and lacking quality.

I expect Canada to dominate this game and impose their rhythm here. If they score an early goal, it could be a very easy game for Canada with at least 3-4 goals scored.

New Zealand was easily beaten by Japan recently (4:1, 2:0) and I expect Canada to play a serious tournament, especially after their disaster performance in the World Cup.

SPAIN - JAPAN

Spain is my main title contender here and I expect them to start the tournament with a victory.

They are coming from a huge victory in the World Cup 2023, are the top ranked team in the FIFA Ranking, and also FC Barcelona won the Champions League with several players who are in this squad.

The core of the team is based in Barcelona’s team, with a lot of quality, ability to control the games and have possession, and also very good skills. Players like Bonmati, Paralluelo or Hermoso are some of the most important pieces, but overall Spain as a group has an amazing team, very strong in depth.

Spain is also coming in good form, as they won the Nations League against France in the final.

In the World Cup they made a disaster against Japan, losing 4:0 in the group stage, but I think that was only an unlucky game and don’t see this repeated again. In that game Spain had 77% possession and Japan was incredibly effective in the areas.

Japan looks strong, with a rejuvenated squad but their best player Hinata Miyazawa (topscorer in previous World Cup) has been injured for a long time recently and isn’t at her best fit. I believe they are lacking quality and a reliable scorer upfront.

I believe that Japan will use the same tactics as they did in the World Cup, and Spain will prove that this game was just an accident. I can’t see again Japan winning the game with less than 30% possession and making all the counters perfectly, whilst also I can’t see Spain missing such an amount of chances.

Surely Spain trained and prepared well the tactics for a game like this one, as they know perfectly what Japan will do. I believe they learnt the lesson and will find the way to win this fixture.

Japan is a very defensive team who feels comfortable with less than 30% possession and playing counters. They did the same against USA recently, where they scored an early goal but then were beaten 2:1 conceding almost 3 expected goals and generating only 0.21. And Spain is better than the USA in my opinion.

Quality difference here is huge and the previous game in the World Cup makes me see Spain really well prepared to beat Japan here.

加拿大-新西兰

巨大的质量差异。

虽然加拿大队不是本届世界杯上最强的球队之一，但他们的阵容很好，经验丰富。他们在2020年东京奥运会上获得金牌，但在去年的世界杯小组赛中被淘汰。然而，我希望他们能进入比赛的后期阶段。

与阿什利·劳伦斯、杰西·弗莱明、卡迪沙·布坎南等球员以及几名在国家队出场数百次的球员有着丰富的经验。防守和进攻之间的平衡非常好，组织良好，是一支很难击败的球队。

他们最近在一些国际比赛中对美国表现出色，表明如果他们有机会进球，他们就有野心去做(3:0对哥斯达黎加，0:4对巴拉圭，6:0萨尔瓦多，5:0澳大利亚…)我认为新西兰队比澳大利亚队差。在经历了糟糕的世界杯之后，他们肯定会以良好的状态来参加这次奥运会。

另一方面，在我看来，新西兰队是本届比赛中最差的球队。我预计他们会以小组垫底的身份出线，因为我不认为他们能在对阵加拿大或法国的比赛中拿到积分。甚至哥伦比亚也是我在上面看到的球队。

他们在奥运会上缺乏经验，成绩不佳，他们的计划很简单:打一场防守比赛，尽可能地保持平局。然而，我并不期望他们能够成功地做到这一点。

是的，他们有一些在欧洲有经验的球员，比如杰基·汉德、印第安-佩吉·莱利(埃因霍温)或凯蒂·鲍恩(国际米兰)，但他们的大部分球员都在当地联赛踢球，缺乏实力。

我希望加拿大能统治这场比赛，并在这里强加他们的节奏。如果他们先进一个球，那么这场比赛对加拿大来说可能会非常轻松，至少能进3-4个球。

新西兰队最近被日本队轻松击败(4:1,2:0)，我希望加拿大能打一场严肃的比赛，尤其是在他们在世界杯上的灾难性表现之后。

西班牙-日本

西班牙是我在这里的主要冠军竞争者，我希望他们能以一场胜利开始比赛。

他们刚刚在2023年世界杯上取得了巨大的胜利，是国际足联排名第一的球队，巴塞罗那队还赢得了欧洲冠军联赛，其中有几名球员在这支球队中。

球队的核心是基于巴塞罗那的球队，有很多质量，有能力控制比赛，有控球权，也有很好的技术。像Bonmati, paralluello和Hermoso这样的球员是最重要的球员，但总的来说，西班牙作为一个整体是一支令人惊叹的球队，深度很强。

西班牙队的状态也不错，他们在决赛中战胜了法国队，赢得了国家联赛冠军。

在世界杯上，他们在小组赛0比4输给了日本，这是一场灾难，但我认为那只是一场不幸的比赛，不会再发生这样的事情了。在那场比赛中，西班牙拥有77%的控球率，而日本在这一区域的表现非常有效。

日本队看起来很强大，阵容恢复了活力，但他们的最佳球员宫泽欣(上一届世界杯的最佳射手)最近受伤了很长时间，状态不佳。我认为他们在前场缺乏质量和可靠的得分手。

我相信日本会用世界杯时的战术，而西班牙会证明这场比赛只是一场意外。我不能再看到日本队在控球率不到30%的情况下赢得比赛，而且所有的反击都很完美，同时我也不能看到西班牙错过了这么多机会。

当然，西班牙队为这样的比赛训练和准备了很好的战术，因为他们完全知道日本会怎么做。我相信他们吸取了教训，并会找到赢得这场比赛的方法。

日本队是一支非常注重防守的球队，当控球率低于30%时，他们会感到很舒服。最近他们在对阵美国的比赛中也是这样做的，他们一开始就进了一个球，但后来被2:1击败，丢了几乎3个预期进球，只产生了0.21个进球。在我看来，西班牙比美国好。

这里的水平差距是巨大的，上一场世界杯的比赛让我看到了西班牙在这里击败日本的充分准备。