Sagan Tosu VS Sanfrecce Hiroshima

Sagan Tosu and Sanfrecce Hiroshima lock horns in this J1 League round 24 clash at Ekimae Real Estate Stadium Sunday afternoon Beijing time. The level of this league is not of very high by global standards but by Asian standards the level is high. Football enthusiasts and us serious bettors – with a long-term profit in mind - can expect a game of pretty average quality by the J1 League standards here. Most importantly, we have yet another very promising betting opportunity to increase the winning streak of four picks! Sanfrecce Hiroshima finished in 3rd place last season but have, to some extent, declined this season.. Indeed, they currently occupy the 5th place in the league table. They have a solid offensive structure and do unarguably have quite a lot of firepower. Indeed, they have netted the ball 39 times in this league this season. However, their number of expected goals (xG) is "only" 34.05. Their defence is not bad but it's not top-level either.. Indeed, they have conceded 24 goals. Hiroshima can be somewhat vulnerable to fast counter attacks. I expect Sagan Tosu to be pretty defensive here – even at home - mainly relying on fast counter attacks in positive transitions, corner kicks, free kicks - or a possible penalty kick to score.. Their fans will surely understand this as the opponent is strong.. They would probably be happy with a draw.  For clarification, transitions are one of the main phases in football that refers to a change in possession. A transition commences the moment possession is either regained by the previously defending team or lost by the previously attacking side. The goal expectancy here is lower than the bookies estimate. The probability of under 2.50 total goals to be scored is 43.50%.  Indeed, Hiroshima have an edge over the hosts in all areas of the game. However, the current odds of around 1.50 on the away win are way too low! Based on my sophisticated, strongly data-based  expert analysis – with the expected lineups - the hosts have a 67% chance of avoiding defeat by a margin of more than one goal. The Sagan Tosu +1.5 goals handicap option is the obvious smart bet here. Odds of around 1.65 are widely available on the betting market. The teams last locked horns in round 3 three and Hiroshima won 4-0 as big favourites – priced around 1.40 to win. Yes, they deserved to win but the final score is still misleading! Indeed, the xG numbers were  "only" 2.21-0.41. The visitors had their chances – recording a decent seven goal attempts. Moreover, the hosts had only one more attack than Sagan Tosu. The visitors had 53% ball possession but the hosts did record many more shots on goal. I want to emphasize that Sagan Tosu can play much better than they did in this game. I believe this match affects the odds too much here.. Let's not forget that according to a well-known and respected German website, Transfermarkt.com, the visitors are only pretty narrowly the bigger team here.. Indeed, their players are valued at an estimated around 14.60 million euros, some 115528700 ¥. The Sagan Tosu squad, on the other hand, has an estimated market value of some 11.50 million. Having said that I want to highlight that the total market values very often reflect the teams' level on the pitch surprisingly well but can, of course, sometimes be misleading as well.. For example, a still extremely good player, Lionel Messi, 37, who plays for Inter Miami in the MLS in the USA, is valued at "only'' 30 million euros.

We must realize that Hiroshima have not been overly convincing lately – winning two of their last five games! Moreover, they have won only one of their last seven matches by a margin of more than one goal.. In their most recent game they faced Avispa Fukuoka at home as very clear favourites, priced around 1.50-1.55 to win by the bookies. The visitors even had 56% ball possession and recorded one more goal attempt and two more dangerous attacks. The hosts had one more shot on goal. Both teams managed just one big scoring chance. The xG numbers were very balanced -  0.98-0.92. Yes, Hiroshima won 1-0 but did not really impress me.. Before this they comfortably beat Iwaki, a team from the J2 League, 4-0 at home. They were priced around 1.25-1.35 at the time of kickoff to eliminate Iwaki in the 90 minutes of play. It was an Emperor's Cup clash. In round 22 Hiroshima were pretty poorly organized on the pitch – with too big spaces between the players in many key situations. Hiroshima were priced around 2.15 to win this game against Vissel Kobe but the visitors took a deserved three points! Indeed, they recorded more goal attempts, shots on goal as well as attacks. In round 21 Hiroshima locked horns with Kawasaki Frontale on the road and it was a 1-1 draw. The visitors had one more goal attempt - the hosts managed more shots on goal. Hiroshima were priced around 2.00 to win the game but either team could easily have triumphed.. In round 20 Hiroshima were big favourites at home against Albirex Niigata but had to settle for a disappointing draw. They had many more goal attempts but the visitors still recorded eight -  and also had 62% ball possession. The odds on the Hiroshima win have undoubtedly been way too low in four of their last five games!

Sagan Tosu are, in all honesty, nothing special as a team and are currently in 17th place. Last season they did better and can pretty significantly  improve in all areas of the game. They have scored a decent 30 goals – two more than Gamba Osaka, currently in 2nd place.. They have some pretty creative and fast offensive players in the squad. Their defence, unfortunately, is not very solid..  Indeed, they have conceded 40 goals in this league. However, their number of expected goals allowed is still "only" 35.43. Their defensive structure is satisfactory but the defenders make too many silly mistakes, for example giving too risky passes near their own goal.. Let's hope they are 100% concentrated and more cautious against a strong opponent here.. Sagan Tosu have 23 points in their pocket but their number of expected points (xPTS) is 26.12. They have, in fact, been in quite good form recently – winning three of their last games. In their most recent match they did lose to Gamba Osaka at home 0-2 – as pretty clear underdogs- though. However, they recorded many more goal attempts, shots off goal, corner kicks, attacks (144-91) and dangerous attacks. Sagan Tosu had 25 touches in the opponent's penalty area, the visitors' number was only 14. Gamba did have two more shots though. Even so, the final score is very misleading as the xG numbers were very balanced - 1.25-1.27. Before this Sagan Tosu swept past Yokohama FC at home – winning 3-1 as clear underdogs. Mainly due to some (starting) lineup-related things they were priced around 3.50 (!) to eliminate Yokohama in this Emperor's Cup clash.

In round 22 Tosu took all three points on the road against Albirex Niigata. The visitors were priced around 4.00 to win by the bookies but recorded many more goal attempts (12-8), shots on goal and shots off target. It was yet another example of the bookmakers undervaluing Sagan Tosu! They generated more than Albirex Niigata - 2.45-2.01 to be precise. Before this Sagan Tosu were big underdogs – priced close to a whopping 6.00 to win - in an away game against Yokohama F. Marinos. However, they won 1-0 after an excellent, well-organized and disciplined defensive performance. I loved the way they fought mercilessly for almost every loose ball! Indeed, the hosts had a huge 28 goal attempts but managed only four shots on goal! The visitors, quite surprisingly, had six big scoring chances! They were able to keep the hosts away from very promising scoring chances with a high xG – despite F. Marinos having 59.60% ball possession. In this game Sagan Tosu proved that they have potential to be very solid defensively - and that not all the often harsh criticism relating to it is, in fact, justified..

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Sagan Tosu VS Sanfrecce Hiroshima

北京时间周日下午，日本J1联赛第24轮比赛将在埃基梅房地产体育场举行。以全球标准来看，这个联赛的水平不是很高，但以亚洲标准来看，这个水平是很高的。足球爱好者和我们这些认真的投注者——考虑到长期利润——可以期待一场以J1联赛标准衡量的中等质量的比赛。最重要的是，我们还有另一个非常有希望的投注机会，以增加四次选择的连胜纪录!广岛圣弗雷斯上赛季排名第三，但在某种程度上，本赛季有所下降。事实上，他们目前在联赛中排名第五。他们有一个坚实的进攻结构，毫无疑问，他们有相当多的火力。事实上，他们本赛季在联赛中已经取得了39次进球。然而，他们的预期目标数量(xG)“只有”34.05。他们的防守还不错，但也不是顶级的。事实上，他们已经丢了24个球。广岛可能在某种程度上容易受到快速反击。我认为萨根·托苏在这里的防守会很好——即使是在主场——主要依靠快速反击，角球，任意球——或者可能的点球来得分。他们的球迷肯定会理解的，因为对手很强大。他们可能会对平局感到高兴。澄清一下，过渡是足球的主要阶段之一，指的是控球的变化。当之前防守的球队重新获得控球权或之前进攻的球队失去控球权时，过渡就开始了。这里的预期进球比博彩公司估计的要低。总进球数在2.50以下的概率为43.50%。事实上，广岛在比赛的所有领域都比东道主有优势。然而，目前客场获胜的1.50左右的赔率太低了!根据我老练的、以数据为基础的专家分析，加上预期的阵容，东道主有67%的机会以一个以上的差距避免失败。萨根·托苏+1.5个进球障碍显然是明智的选择。1.65左右的赔率在博彩市场上随处可见。两队上一次交锋是在第三轮，广岛队以4比0获胜，他们是夺冠的大热门，胜率约为1.40英镑。是的，他们应该赢，但最后的比分仍然是误导!实际上，xG值“只有”2.21-0.41。客队也有机会，他们有7次进球。此外，东道主只比萨根·托苏多了一次进攻。客队有53%的控球率，但主队的射门次数确实更多。我想强调的是，萨根·托苏在这场比赛中可以比他们打得更好。我认为这场比赛对赔率的影响太大了。别忘了，根据德国一家知名且受人尊敬的网站Transfermarkt.com的数据，客队在这里只比球队强一点点。事实上，他们球员的身价估计在1460万欧元左右，约合115528700日元。另一方面，萨根托苏队的市场价值估计约为1150万欧元。话虽如此，我想强调的是，总的市场价值通常能很好地反映球队在球场上的水平，但当然，有时也会产生误导。例如，37岁的莱昂内尔·梅西(Lionel Messi)仍然非常出色，他效力于美国职业足球大联盟(MLS)的国际迈阿密队(Inter Miami)，他的身价“仅”为3000万欧元。

我们必须认识到，广岛队最近的表现并不令人信服——他们在最近五场比赛中赢了两场!此外，他们在最近七场比赛中只赢了一场超过一球的比赛。在他们最近的一场比赛中，他们在主场面对福冈，这是一个非常明显的热门，博彩公司的价格在1.50-1.55左右。客队甚至有56%的控球率，并且多了一次进球尝试和两次危险进攻。主队还有一次射门。两支球队都只抓住了一次重要的得分机会。xG值非常平衡- 0.98-0.92。是的，广岛队1-0获胜，但并没有给我留下深刻印象。在此之前，他们在主场以4比0轻松击败来自J2联赛的Iwaki队。为了在90分钟的比赛中淘汰Iwaki，开球时的价格在1.25-1.35左右。这是一场帝王杯比赛。在第22轮比赛中，广岛在球场上的组织非常糟糕，在许多关键时刻球员之间的空间太大。广岛队在与神户队的比赛中以2.15的价格取胜，但客队得到了应得的三分!事实上，他们记录了更多的射门次数、射门次数和进攻次数。在

第21轮，广岛队与川崎前锋队在客场交手，双方1-1战平。客队还有一次射门机会——主队射门次数更多。广岛队赢得比赛的价格在2英镑左右，但任何一支球队都可以轻松获胜。在第20轮的比赛中，广岛队在主场迎战新潟队，他们是大热门，但只能以令人失望的平局收场。他们有更多的进球尝试，但客队仍然有8次进球，并且有62%的控球率。在过去的五场比赛中，广岛队获胜的几率无疑太低了。

说实话，萨根-托苏作为一支球队并没有什么特别之处，目前排名第17位。上赛季他们做得更好，在比赛的各个方面都有很大的进步。他们已经打进了30个进球，比目前排名第二的大阪钢巴多两个。他们有一些非常有创造力和快速进攻的球员。不幸的是，他们的防守并不稳固。事实上，他们在联赛中丢了40个球。然而，他们的预期进球仍然“只有”35.43个。他们的防守结构令人满意，但是后卫犯了太多愚蠢的错误，比如在自己的球门附近传球太危险。希望他们能100%集中精力，在面对强大对手时更加谨慎。目前，萨根队虽然拿到了23分，但他们的期望积分(xPTS)是26.12分。事实上，他们最近的状态相当不错，在最近的比赛中赢了三场。在最近的一场比赛中，他们确实在主场0-2输给了大阪钢巴，尽管他们显然处于劣势。然而，他们的进球次数、射门次数、角球次数、进攻次数(144胜91负)和危险进攻次数更多。萨根·托苏在对方禁区内触球25次，而客队只有14次。不过甘巴又投了两球。即便如此，最终的分数还是很容易误导人，因为xG的数值是非常平衡的——1.25-1.27。在此之前，萨根·托苏在主场以3-1横扫横滨FC，显然处于劣势。主要是由于一些(首发)阵容相关的事情，他们在这场天皇杯的比赛中淘汰横滨的价格在3.50左右。

在第22轮比赛中，托苏在对阵新潟的比赛中拿下了全部三分。博彩公司对客队的胜率估计在4.00左右，但客队的进球次数(12胜8负)、射正和射偏都要多得多。这是博彩公司低估萨根·托苏的又一个例子!他们产生了比Albirex Niigata更多的数据——准确地说是2.45-2.01。在此之前，萨根托苏在客场对阵横滨F.马里诺斯的比赛中是一个大的失败者，他们的胜率接近惊人的6.00。然而，在出色的、组织良好的、纪律严明的防守表现后，他们以1-0获胜。我喜欢他们为几乎每一个空球无情地战斗的方式!事实上，东道主有28次进球尝试，但只有4次射门!令人惊讶的是，客队有6次得分机会!尽管马里诺斯拥有59.60%的控球率，但他们凭借高xG让主队远离了非常有希望的得分机会。在这场比赛中，萨根·托苏证明了他们有潜力成为非常稳固的防守——事实上，并不是所有的严厉批评都是有道理的。