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2024-07-10

Tapio

外籍分析师

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Tokushima Vortis VS Vissel Kobe


Tokushima Vortis and Vissel Kobe lock horns in this Japanese Emperor's Cup 1/16-finals clash at Pocarisweat Stadium (Naruto) Wednesday afternoon Beijing time. Vissel Kobe play in the J1 League, the highest level of Japanese football. The level of this league is only pretty mediocre by global standards but by Asian standards it is of very good quality! Football fans and us serious, profit-hungry bettors can expect a match of rather mediocre quality by this competition's standards here. Most importantly, we have yet another very lucrative betting opportunity to make even more profit betting on this competition! We have won 5/7 last picks on the Emperor's Cup - and 10/11 of the last picks in all competitions! In addition to the two Korean K League 1 and Emperor's Cup games, I have written a very long and comprehensive in-depth preview on the Netherlands vs England EURO 2024 game. In this competition we have won 5/6 last picks! Tokushima play in the J2 League and are having a little disappointing season. I want to highlight that the difference between the J1 and J2 Leagues is considerable! Last season Tokushima ended up in 15th place but are now in 12th place with 29 points. However, they have not really improved from last season. Their number of expected points (xPTS) is only 24.99. They do not have any obvious weaknesses – or strengths in their game but cannot match a strong J1 League team in any area of the game. Yes, especially Kobe's excellent head coach might do some squad rotation here but they have a deep squad – full of talented players who are ready to prove their skills! The odds of around 1.60 offered by the bookies on Kobe getting the job done in 90 minutes of play are simply too high!

According to a well-known and respected German website, Transfermarkt.com, Kobe are substantially the bigger team here! Indeed, their squad has an estimated market value of some 16 million euros. This is too low though! Some 21-22 million would be a more realistic number. Five of their players are undervalued in my expert opinion. The Tokushima players are valued at a total of around 6.70 million. Let's not forget that Kobe are the reigning champions of Japan! Last season they took an impressive 71 points – seven more points than Yokohama F. Marinos. This season has not been quite as strong for them but they are still in 4th place after 22 rounds of play. They have a fine 41 points to their account and are just one point behind Kashima Antlers and Gamba Osaka. They can still win the championship – again! Their score difference is the 2nd-best in the J1 league – 33:17. The 17 goals allowed is the lowest number in this league – together with Machida (1st place) and Gamba Osaka. They play very balanced and structured football, thanks to their excellent head coach and high-quality players. Even with some squad rotation I expect them to defend well – patiently waiting for Tokushima to make even the slightest mistake.. I do not believe Kobe will allow the inferior opponent too much in expected goals (xG). If Tokushima are passive here, Kobe can dominate the game with high ball possession. Indeed, they are a tough opponent to beat as they have many possible styles of play – and can change tactic/formation mid-game! In their last game Kobe defeated Sanfrecce Hiroshima 3-1 on the road as underdogs – priced around 3.30 to win by the bookies. They had more goal attempts and shots on goal but the hosts had two more shots on target. Overall it was a strong - but still not a 10/10 performance.. They can play even better. Before this they were excellent, beating Kashima Antlers 3-1 at home. They had 55.40% ball possession and recorded many more goal attempts (14-8), shots on goal shots on target (6-2), attacks as well as dangerous attacks. They also generated more in xG. Tokushima beat Kofu in their last match 3-1 on the road but the final score is misleading! Indeed, the hosts had many more goal attempts and shots off goal, corner kicks, attacks and dangerous attacks. I will not get too excited by this win.. Before this they took a point from V-Varen Nagasaki at home through a 2-2 draw and did play surprisingly well! However, the visitors looked a bit sluggish and were very far from their best level! I will not overreact to this result as Tokushima have played a good game here and there in the past as well - only to be very lame in the next game..



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德岛漩涡VS神户战舰


北京时间周三下午,德岛旋风队和神户队将在日本天皇杯1/16决赛中对决。科比在J1联赛踢球,这是日本足球的最高水平。以全球标准来看,这个联赛的水平只是相当平庸,但以亚洲标准来看,它的质量非常好!足球迷和我们这些认真的、追求利润的投注者可以期待一场质量相当平庸的比赛。最重要的是,我们还有另一个非常有利可图的投注机会,可以在这次比赛中获得更多的利润!我们在英皇杯的最后一次选秀中赢得了5/7,在所有比赛的最后一次选秀中赢得了10/11 !除了两场韩国K联赛1和皇帝杯的比赛,我还写了一篇很长很全面的关于2024年欧洲杯荷兰对英格兰的深度预演。在这次比赛中,我们赢得了5/6的最后选择!德岛在J2联赛打球,这个赛季有点令人失望。我想强调的是,J1和J2联赛之间的差异是相当大的!上个赛季,德岛最终排在第15位,但现在以29分排名第12位。然而,与上赛季相比,他们并没有真正的进步。他们的期望值(xPTS)只有24.99。他们在比赛中没有任何明显的弱点或优势,但在比赛的任何领域都无法与J1联赛的强队匹敌。是的,特别是科比出色的主教练可能会做一些阵容轮换,但他们有一个深度的阵容——充满了有天赋的球员,他们已经准备好证明自己的技能!博彩公司开出的科比在90分钟内完成比赛的赔率约为1.60,这实在太高了!

根据德国知名网站Transfermarkt.com的数据,科比在这里的实力更强!事实上,这支球队的市场价值估计在1600万欧元左右。这太低了!2100万到2200万是比较现实的数字。在我看来,他们有五名球员被低估了。德岛球员的总身价约为670万美元。别忘了神户是日本的卫冕冠军!上个赛季他们拿到了71分——比横滨F.马里诺斯多7分。本赛季对他们来说并没有那么强大,但在22轮比赛之后,他们仍然排在第四位。他们目前积41分,仅落后鹿岛鹿角队和大阪钢巴队1分。他们仍然可以赢得冠军——再一次!他们的比分差距在J1联赛中排名第二,33:17。17球的失球数与町田(第一名)和大阪钢巴并列,是联赛中最少的。他们踢出了非常平衡和有组织的足球,这要感谢他们优秀的主教练和高质量的球员。即使有一些阵容轮换,我也希望他们能很好地防守——耐心地等待德岛犯哪怕是最小的错误。我不相信科比会给劣势对手太多期望进球(xG)。如果德岛在这里被动,科比可以用高球控球统治比赛。事实上,他们是一个很难击败的对手,因为他们有很多可能的打法,并且可以在比赛中改变战术/阵型!在他们的上一场比赛中,科比以3-1的劣势击败了广岛圣弗雷斯,博彩公司的胜率约为3.30。他们有更多的进球尝试和射门,但主队有两次射门正射。总的来说,这是一个强大的,但仍然不是一个10/10的表现。他们可以打得更好。在此之前,他们表现出色,在主场3-1击败鹿岛鹿角队。他们有55.40%的控球率,并且记录了更多的射门次数(14-8次),射门次数(6-2次),攻击和危险攻击。他们在xG中也产生了更多。德岛队在上一场比赛中客场3-1击败了神府队,但最后的比分是误导人的!事实上,东道主有更多的进球尝试、射门、角球、进攻和危险进攻。我不会因为这场胜利而过于兴奋。在此之前,他们在主场2-2战平了长崎V-Varen的一分,并且踢得出奇的好!然而,客队看起来有点迟钝,离他们的最佳水平还差得很远!我不会对这个结果反应过度,因为德岛在过去的比赛中也打得很好,只是在下一场比赛中表现得很差劲。

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