We are VERY HOT! ¥¥¥ 天皇杯 湘南海洋VS东京绿茵
2024-07-10

Tapio

外籍分析师

解读理由:

Shonan Bellmare VS Tokyo Verdy


Shonan Bellmare welcome Tokyo Verdy for this Japanese Emperor's Cup 1/16-finals clash at Lemon Gas Stadium Wednesday afternoon Beijing time. Both teams play in the J1 League, the highest level of Japanese football. The level of this league is only pretty mediocre by global standards but by Asian standards it is of very high quality! Football enthusiasts and us serious, profit-hungry bettors can expect a match of better-than- average quality by this competition's standards here. Most importantly, we have yet another very interesting betting opportunity to make even more profit betting on this competition! We have won 5/7 last picks on the Emperor's Cup - and 10/11 of the last picks in all competitions. In addition to the Korean K League 1 and Emperor's Cup games, I have written a very long and comprehensive in-depth preview on the Netherlands vs England EURO 2024 game. In this competition we have won 5/6 last picks on EURO 2024! 

Shonan Bellmare are a pretty lowly team and finished in 15th place in the J1 last season when only a total of 18 clubs played in this league. They took a lame 34 points. This season has been even more difficult for them! Indeed, they have a pathetic 19 points in their pocket and are in the second-last place. They are at big risk of being relegated! Indeed, the worst three teams will play in the J2 League next season. I expect avoiding relegation to be their main focus this season.. Some squad rotation from both teams' head coaches would not be a surprise to me but this would not benefit the hosts! They have a rather limited squad According to a well-known and respected German website, Transfermarkt.com, the visitors are the bigger team here! Indeed, their squad has an estimated market value of some 12.30 million euros. This is too low though! Some 16-16.50 million would be a more realistic number. The Shonan Bellmare players are valued at a total of an estimated approximately 10 million which is a low number for this level. Yes, Shonan should have some potential for improvement but the bookies seem to give this potential too much emphasis.. Indeed, they simply lack quality in all areas of the game. With a hint of luck – or Verdy having a bad day - the hosts can surely win this game but I must disagree with the bookies here. Indeed, the biggest bookies who accept the largest wagers see Shonan as the favourites – offering them odds of around 2.50 to eliminate Verdy in the 90 minutes of play. Based on my sophisticated in-depth analysis Verdy deserve to be the favourites here! The Verdy +0.5 goals handicap is the obvious smart bet here. Shonan cannot match Verdy in any area of the game!

The hosts have won just one of their last five games. This win came in their last game – 3-2 over Urawa Reds on the road. I want to highlight that they did not deserve the three points! Indeed, Urawa had 66% ball possession and recorded more goal attempts (15-9), shots on target, shots off goal, total passes and completed passes. Before this, in round 21, Shonan were priced around 2.00 to win at home but lost to Kyoto 0-1. They had more goal attempts but the visitors had more shots on goal. In round 20 they escaped with a point away from home against Kawasaki Frontale who recorded many more goal attempts – 25-7. The hosts also had many more shots on goal, shots off goal (19-4), corner kicks and dangerous attacks – 78-45 to be precise. Shonan's offense has some firepower and have netted the ball a decent 28 times in the J1 League but their number of expected goals (xG) is only 26.43. Their defence is very poorly structured and the whole team has been imbalanced in most games this season.. Shonan have allowed goals in the J1 – only the rock-bottom team, Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo, has allowed more goals – 43.

Verdy were promoted to this level for this season and have performed a little better than I would have expected in my in-depth preseason analysis. As a result, I have raised their power rating as the season has progressed. The bookies should respect them more! They are in 10th place in the league table with a fine 31 points. Verdy's score difference is 31:35. Their number of expected goals allowed (xGA) is, however, lower - 32.11. They play very well as a team, better than the list of players would suggest.. According to my sources they also have a terrific team spirit. Moreover, Verdy have a tactically smart coach, H. Jofuku. They have lost only two of their last seven games, winning four of these seven matches. In their last match they faced a dangerous team, Cerezo Osaka, at home and took a 1-1 draw as pretty clear underdogs – priced around 3.20 to win on the betting market. Verdy's F. Yamada was sent off in the 42nd minute when the score was still 0-0. Verdy fought very well with 10 men, playing a tactically extremely smart game! They even took the lead as Yamami netted the ball from the penalty spot. Both teams had three shots on goal but Osaka, as expected, recorded more goal attempts. Before this the bookies, once again, underestimated Verdy who took a 2-1 win over Yokohama Marinos after a terrific defensive performance! They were priced around 4.50-4.70 to win but allowed the hosts only four goal attempts – recording 12 themselves. Both teams had four shots on goal but Verdy managed many more shots off target – 8-0 to be precise. Following the lame performances I do not expect the atmosphere at the stadium to be too great here.. The Shonan Bellmare fans have, totally understandably, been frustrated with heir team's performances..



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雄南贝尔马VS东京Verdy


北京时间周三下午,日本天皇杯1/16决赛将在柠檬气体育场举行,申南贝尔马将迎来东京Verdy。两支球队都参加了J1联赛,这是日本足球的最高水平。以全球标准来看,这个联赛的水平只是相当平庸,但以亚洲标准来看,它的质量非常高!足球爱好者和我们这些认真的、追求利润的投注者可以期待一场以本届比赛的标准来看质量高于平均水平的比赛。最重要的是,我们还有另一个非常有趣的投注机会,可以在这场比赛中获得更多的利润!在英皇杯的最后一次选秀中,我们赢得了5/7,在所有的比赛中,我们赢得了10/11。除了韩国K联赛1和皇帝杯的比赛,我还写了一篇很长很全面的关于2024年欧洲杯荷兰对英格兰比赛的深度预演。在这项比赛中,我们赢得了5/6欧洲杯的最后一次选择!

在只有18支球队参加的J1联赛中,韩国秀南贝尔马队仅排在第15位,是一支实力相当低下的球队。他们只得了34分。这个赛季对他们来说更加艰难!事实上,他们只拿到可怜的19分,排在倒数第二。他们有降级的危险!事实上,最差的三支球队将在下赛季参加J2联赛。我希望保级是他们本赛季的主要目标。两队主教练的一些轮换对我来说并不奇怪,但这对东道主没有好处!根据德国知名网站Transfermarkt.com的数据,客队在这里的实力更强!事实上,这支球队的市场价值估计在1230万欧元左右。这太低了!大约1600万到1650万是比较现实的数字。据估计,湘南贝尔马球员的总身价约为1000万美元,这在这个级别中是很低的数字。是的,湘南应该有一些改进的潜力,但博彩公司似乎过于强调这种潜力。事实上,他们在比赛的各个方面都缺乏质量。只要有一点运气——或者佛迪今天运气不好——东道主肯定能赢得这场比赛,但我不同意这里的博彩公司。事实上,接受最大赌注的最大博彩公司认为南队是最受欢迎的球队——在90分钟的比赛中淘汰威尔迪队的赔率约为2.50。根据我复杂的深入分析,Verdy应该是这里的最爱!Verdy +0.5个进球障碍显然是明智的选择。在游戏的任何领域,尚南都无法与Verdy匹敌!

东道主在最近五场比赛中只赢了一场。这场胜利是他们上一场客场3:2战胜浦和红军的比赛。我想强调的是,他们不应该得到三分!事实上,浦和有66%的控球率,并且记录了更多的射门次数(15-9次)、射正、射偏、总传球和完成传球。此前,在第21轮比赛中,湘南队在主场的胜率被预测为2.00左右,但最终以0比1输给了京都队。他们射门次数更多,但客队射门次数更多。在第20轮比赛中,他们在客场战胜了进球次数更多的川崎前锋,以25比7的比分获得一分。东道主也有更多的正门射门、脱门射门(19胜4负)、角球和危险进攻——确切地说是78胜45负。韩国雄南的进攻有一定的火力,在J1联赛中有28次进球,但他们的预期进球(xG)只有26.43个。他们的防守结构很差,整个球队在本赛季的大部分比赛中都处于不平衡状态。少南队在J1中丢了球,只有垫底的北海道俱乐部札幌队丢了更多的球——43个。

Verdy本赛季被提升到这个级别,并且表现比我在季前赛的深入分析中预期的要好一些。因此,随着赛季的进展,我提高了他们的能量评级。博彩公司应该更尊重他们!他们以31分的成绩排在联赛第10位。Verdy的比分差是31:35。然而,他们的预期进球数(xGA)较低,为32.11。他们作为一个团队打得非常好,比球员名单上显示的要好。据我所知,他们也有出色的团队精神。此外,Verdy有一个战术上聪明的教练,H. Jofuku。在过去的7场比赛中,他们只输了2场,赢了4场。在上一场比赛中,他们在主场面对一支危险的球队大阪Cerezo,并以1比1战平,显然处于劣势——在博彩市场上,他们的胜率约为3.20英镑。Verdy的F. Yamada在42年被罚下

比分还是0-0的时候。Verdy用10个人打得很好,打了一场战术上非常聪明的比赛!他们甚至取得了领先,因为山美从点球点将球打进。两支球队都有三次射门,但正如预期的那样,大阪队的射门次数更多。在此之前,博彩公司再一次低估了Verdy,他在出色的防守表现后以2-1战胜了横滨马里诺斯!他们的胜率在4.50-4.70之间,但只给东道主4次射门机会——他们自己也有12次射门。两队都有4次射正,但威尔迪的射偏次数更多——准确地说是8比0。在差劲的表现之后,我不期望球场的气氛会太好。青岛贝尔马队的球迷对球队的表现感到沮丧是完全可以理解的。

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