Uruguay VS Colombia

Uruguay and Colombia lock horns in this Copa America Playoffs semi-finals clash at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, USA Thursday morning Beijing time. The stakes are, of course, extremely high and a pretty defensive and cautious game is expected – at least until/if the first goal is scored.. Indeed, I would not be at all surprised if this turned out to be a 0-0 draw.. Uruguay currently occupy the 14th place in the FIFA Ranking. They qualified for the last World Cup which was played in Qatar late in 2022. However, they were a little disappointing – failing to qualify for the Playoffs. Colombia finished in 6th place in the World Cup South America Qualification with 23 points and a score difference of 20:19.  Their score difference was, in fact, better than Uruguay's. Colombia's number of expected goals (xG) was 28.65. However, they did not quite qualify for the World Cup but have improved significantly in the last approximately two years! It seems that the bookies have failed to fully realize this and keep undervaluing Colombia.. They currently occupy the 12th place in the FIFA Ranking. Some of the biggest bookies see Uruguay as marginal favourites, some see Colombia as slim favourites -  and some see this game as a coin toss – a 50/50 match - offering both teams odds of around 2.80-2.90 to win. Based on my strongly data-based analysis Columbus deserve to be solid, but of course not very clear favourites. More Colombians than Uruguayans are expected at Bank of America Stadium so there should be a marginal "home" advantage there.. We will take the Colombia +0.5 goals handicap option to extend the hot streak of 5 consecutive and 10/11 last picks won -  at the time of posting this analysis.

Let me first bring you an astonishing fact: Colombia have not lost any of their last 27 games!!!

Moreover, Colombia have won 11 of their last 12 matches. In their last game Colombia crushed Panama 5-0! Yes, the final score flatters them to some extent but they did generate much more than Panama in expected goals (xG). Panama had beaten Bolivia and USA in the group stage. Against USA Panama were massive underdogs, priced around 9.00-10.50 to win. USA's T. Weah was sent off in the 1st half though. USA are in 11th place in the FIFA ranking and qualified for the Playoffs in the last World Cup. Indeed, we should give enough credit to Colombia's very clear win over Panama! Before this Colombia and Brazil, currently in 4th place in the FIFA Ranking, played a 1-1 draw. We should realize that Colombia only needed a point from this game to win Group D. They were priced around 4.00-4.50 to win on the betting market and this was clearly too high! Indeed, Colombia had many more goal attempts, shots on goal (6-3), shots off goal, attacks (107-71) and dangerous attacks. Moreover, they generated 1.43 in xG – Brazil managed only 0.24! Colombia's defence was, once again, very well structured, the defenders looked confident and the midfielders actively took part in defending as well. I loved Colombia's almost flawless performance - when they did not have to win.  According to my sources they have an excellent team spirit and take pride in representing their country. Before this Colombia defeated Costa Rica 3-0 and played very well! Their number of xG was "only" 2.23. though. However, Colombia defended very well, as usual, allowing the Costa Ricans, an often undervalued team, only one shot on target. Before this they were far from their best but still beat Paraguay 2-1. Even so, Colombia had more shots on goal, goal attempts, total passes, completed passes, attacks and dangerous attacks. On the 16th of last month Colombia swept past Bolivia.  3-0 was the final score at a neutral location. It was a friendly match. Before this they were excellent, showing what they are capable of offensively! They used many slightly different offensive tactics in this game. Indeed, stopping their offense is a big challenge for every team on the planet! Yes, they were the favourites - in this friendly game played in the USA – but not very clear. They were priced around 2.40-2.50 to win on the betting market. This is yet another example of Colombia being under-rated by the bookmakers! They recorded more shots on target and goal attempts than USA Colombia also generated much more in xG than USA. I want to highlight that Colombia have an excellent Argentinian head coach in N. Lorenzo. He is great in terms of tactical skills but is also a true leader and has boosted the players' confidence substantially!

Uruguay, too, have been in good form for a long time now. However, their record – and performances have, on average, not been nearly as impressive as those of Colombia! In their last game they locked horns with Brazil and qualified after penalties - 1-0. Brazil had 58% ball possession and both teams had three shots on goal. Uruguay did generate a little more in xG though – 0.83-0.69 to be precise. Either team could easily have qualified.. Before this Uruguay defeated USA as favourites on the betting market – taking a 1-0 win. USA were far from their best but still recorded more attacks and dangerous attacks, total passes and completed passes. Uruguay had more goal attempts though - 12-8. It was a solid but not superb performance as a whole. In round 2 Uruguay beat a terrible team on the road, Bolivia, 5-0 as gigantic favorites on the betting market. They, of course, deserved to win but generated "only" 2.344xG. In round 1 Uruguay were priced around 1.20-1.25 against Panama and won 3-1. However, the final score clearly flatters them. Indeed, the xG numbers were 1.45-0.78.

GOOD LUCK to all my fans! More high-quality analyses will be posted soon!

该文章通过有道机器翻译，仅供参考:

乌拉圭VS哥伦比亚

北京时间周四上午，乌拉圭和哥伦比亚将在美国夏洛特的美国银行体育场展开美洲杯半决赛的较量。当然，赌注是非常高的，一场相当防守和谨慎的比赛是可以预料的——至少在第一个进球之前。事实上，如果结果是0-0平局，我一点也不惊讶。乌拉圭目前在国际足联排名中排名第14位。他们有资格参加2022年底在卡塔尔举行的上届世界杯。然而，他们有点失望——没能进入季后赛。哥伦比亚队在本届世界杯南美预选赛中以23分和20:19的分差排名第6。事实上，他们的得分差距比乌拉圭的要好。哥伦比亚的预期进球数(xG)为28.65。然而，他们并没有进入世界杯，但在过去的两年里有了很大的进步!似乎博彩公司没有充分认识到这一点，一直低估哥伦比亚。他们目前在国际足联排名中排名第12位。一些最大的博彩公司认为乌拉圭队夺冠的希望不大，一些认为哥伦比亚队夺冠的希望不大，还有一些认为这场比赛就像掷硬币一样——50/50的比赛——两队获胜的赔率都在2.80-2.90左右。根据我强烈基于数据的分析，哥伦布应该是可靠的，但当然不是非常明显的热门。预计在美国银行体育场的哥伦比亚人比乌拉圭人多，所以那里应该有一个边际的“主场”优势。我们将采用哥伦比亚+0.5个进球障碍的选项，以延续连续5场比赛和10/11场比赛的连胜纪录——在发布这篇分析的时候。

让我先告诉你一个惊人的事实:哥伦比亚队在过去的27场比赛中没有输过一场!

此外，哥伦比亚队在最近12场比赛中赢了11场。在上一场比赛中，哥伦比亚队以5比0击败了巴拿马队!是的，最终的比分在某种程度上让他们感到高兴，但他们在预期进球方面确实比巴拿马多了很多。巴拿马在小组赛中击败了玻利维亚和美国。对美国的比赛中，巴拿马是一个大输家，价格在9.00-10.50左右。美国队的T.维阿在上半场被罚下。美国在国际足联排名中排名第11位，在上届世界杯上获得了季后赛资格。事实上，我们应该给予哥伦比亚队对巴拿马队的绝对胜利足够的信任!在此之前，哥伦比亚和目前国际足联排名第四的巴西以1比1战平。我们应该意识到哥伦比亚队只需要从这场比赛中得到一分就可以赢得d组。他们在博彩市场上的胜率在4.00-4.50左右，这显然太高了!事实上，哥伦比亚队的进球次数、射正次数(6胜3负)、射偏次数、进攻次数(107胜71负)和危险进攻次数都更多。此外，他们在世界杯上的进球数为1.43，而巴西仅为0.24!哥伦比亚的防守，再一次，结构非常好，后卫看起来很自信，中场球员也积极参与防守。我喜欢哥伦比亚队近乎完美的表现——当他们不需要赢球的时候。根据我的消息来源，他们有出色的团队精神，并为代表自己的国家感到自豪。在此之前，哥伦比亚3-0击败了哥斯达黎加，踢得非常好!他们的xG数量“只有”2.23个。虽然。然而，哥伦比亚队一如既往地防守出色，让经常被低估的哥斯达黎加队只有一次射正。在此之前，他们远未达到最佳状态，但仍以2-1击败巴拉圭。即便如此，哥伦比亚的射门次数、进球尝试次数、总传球次数、完成传球次数、进攻次数和危险进攻次数都更多。上个月16日，哥伦比亚队横扫玻利维亚队，3比0成为中立场地的最终比分。这是一场友谊赛。在此之前，他们表现出色，展示了他们的进攻能力!他们在这场比赛中使用了许多稍有不同的进攻战术。事实上，阻止他们的进攻对这个星球上的每一支球队来说都是一个巨大的挑战!是的，在这场在美国进行的友谊赛中，他们是最受欢迎的球队，但不是很清楚。在博彩市场上，他们的价格在2.40-2.50左右。这是哥伦比亚被博彩公司低估的又一个例子!他们的射门次数和进球次数都比美国多，哥伦比亚在xG上的进球次数也比美国多。我想强调的是，哥伦比亚有一位出色的阿根廷主教练洛伦佐。他在战术技巧方面很出色，但他也是一个真正的领袖，极大地增强了球员们的信心!

乌拉圭也在很长一段时间内保持着良好的状态。然而，他们的记录和表现，

平均而言，还不如哥伦比亚那么令人印象深刻!在上一场比赛中，他们与巴西队发生了冲突，并在点球大战中以1:0晋级。巴西队的控球率为58%，两队都有3次射门。乌拉圭在xG上的得分多了一点——准确地说是0.83-0.69。任何一个队都可以轻松晋级。在此之前，乌拉圭在博彩市场上以1-0的比分击败了美国队，成为夺冠热门。美国队远没有达到最佳状态，但仍然记录了更多的进攻和危险进攻，总传球和完成传球。乌拉圭的进球次数更多，比分是12比8。从整体上看，这是一场扎实但并不出色的表演。在第二轮比赛中，乌拉圭在客场以5比0击败了一支糟糕的球队玻利维亚，成为博彩市场上最受欢迎的球队。当然，他们理应获胜，但只产生了2.344 × g。第一轮乌拉圭对巴拿马的定价在1.20-1.25左右，最终乌拉圭以3-1获胜。然而，最终的比分显然对他们有利。实际上，xG值为1.45-0.78。

祝我所有的粉丝好运!更多高质量的分析将很快发布!