It's a late call from me, but odds on hosts slashed down too low and now I see really value on guests. I don't see their lost by 2 goals margin, so +1 AH on Newcastle Jets looks like very good bet.

Since October 2017 both teams played each other 11 times - Mariners failed to win 8 times and they didn't recorded any win with more than one goal margin. Jets are not easy opposition for them.

Only 2 rounds left, Mariners are on 3rd place. Not too much to win in regular season - they are 5 points behind second place so chances for Champions League/top2 finish are low. On the other hand they almost secured their place in top6 (qualification for big finals) as they are 4 points above 7th Wellington. They don't need huge win here or so. On the paper even draw is very good result.

Newcastle plays for nothing, bur I believe they have good motivation to finish season in good style. They still have chances to grab some points and not finish at the last position in the league table.

Both teams played each other just two weeks ago, Mariners won 1:0, but that wasn't deserved result at all. Mariners scored a goal from penalty kick, Newcastle created bigger chances to score and the finished with 7 shots more.

Mariners won only 5 of 11 home matches so far, they scored and conceded 17 goals. Jets lost 6 of 11 away matches, bur they not played so bad. They scored 10 goals, but they should more according to expected goals scored (12.25). They conceded 16 goals, but they should less according to the expected goals conceded (14.05).

I don't see that big difference to post such low odds on hosts.

临场的分享，主队的指数降得太低了，现在我认为投注客队会更有价值。我不认为客队会以 2 个球的劣势输掉比赛，所以纽卡斯尔喷气机队的 +1不败看起来是很好的投注。

自 2017 年 10 月以来，两支球队交手11次 - 中央海岸水手8次未能获胜，而且他们没有以超过一球的优势取得胜利。喷气机对他们来说并不是容易的对手。

联赛仅剩 2 轮，水手队排名第 3。他们目前落后第二名5分，因此获得亚冠资格/前 2 名的机会很小。另一方面，他们几乎确保了他们在前六名（季后赛）的位置，因为他们比第 7 名惠灵顿高 4 分。他们不需要在本场取得大比分的胜利。平局对他们都是很好的结果。

纽卡斯尔喷气机已经没有其他目标，但我相信他们有很好的动力以较好的成绩结束本赛季。他们仍然有机会获得一些积分，而不是在积分榜上排名最后。

两队就在两周前的比赛中，水手队以 1:0 获胜，但这不是合理的结果。水手凭借点球破门，纽卡斯尔喷气机创造了更多的得分机会，比对手多出7次射门。

到目前为止，水手队只赢了11个主场比赛中的 5 场，他们的进球和失球都是17球。喷气机队输掉了 11 个客场比赛中的 6 场，但他们的表现并不差。他们打进了 10 个球，但他们预期的进球数（12.25）更多。丢了16个球，预期的失球数（14.05）应该会少一些。

我不认为两队的差距有指数显示的这么大。预测喷气机不败或者输一球。