Both teams are the main title contenders for me, and isn't easy to bet against Spain who has been the best team in the tournament, but the odds are giving us a good chance to do it.
Spain has been at a very high level. It was unexpected for me, as I believe that there were some other teams with more quality or a better squad (Portugal, England, France…). However, here they are, playing fantastic football, the team in best form in the EURO, with more goals scored and a lot of confidence.
However, I think that Spain cannot improve more. Yes, they have been at an amazing level, but this is the best they can do (which is amazing already). But we are still waiting to see the best level from France, and several of their key players. And that’s why I think that France could be favorite in this fixture: they have potential to play better as they did, so we can still see a better French team. Whilst for Spain, we know what’s the best we can see.
Against Germany I saw some fragilities in Spain. Starting with the coach, who made two really bad decisions in the game subbing off too early Yamal and Williams when the game was in a perfect scenario to score the second goal in a counter. And the worst thing: in the press conference he is convinced that did the right decision. Spain defended too much in the second half and conceded a lot. I also saw Spain a bit tired, but they were lucky with the late goal in the last minute of the extra-time.
Spain will be without Le Normand, Pedri and Carvajal. The only absence I see crucial is Carvajal who was one of the best defenders in the tournament. Will be replaced by Jesus Navas who could be Spain’s weak point for this fixture.
Spain needs to play fast football and make high pressure, and also be very effective upfront as they won’t have too many chances. And the main striker Morata is in terrible form, whilst Williams and Yamal are obvious that have been over performing as are just two kids without experience.
Given how well Spain has been playing in comparison with the four remaining teams, you’d be forgiven for expecting them to win but this sport rarely cares for your expectations. France has a wealth of experience at this level of international competition and that could well be what this comes down to.
Nobody has really attacked Spain so far. Only Germany in the second half generated plenty of chances.
France will use the same style we know: slow pace, they won’t care about defending and leave to Spain to control the game, and kill them with spaces at counters. For this matter the key will be Mbappe (who has been at 60% so far, being generous) and Dembele, who I hope to see in the starting XI. He has been reserve in the last two games but against Portugal, once he came in, was the best player in the team.
Spain will dominate this game and France won’t care about that. The way that France has to win this fixture is with a slow paced game controlled by Spain and killed at counters. France is a team who knows perfectly how to execute their plan, which is defensive. They are a rock at the back, have conceded only 1 goal so far (from penalty) and know that they just need to defend well and wait for their quality upfront to score goals.
I believe that France has not been playing bad at all. They have been executing their plan but with less danger upfront (due Mbappe and Griezmann poor form mainly). However, as poor as France have been at times in this tournament, they have a far higher ceiling than Spain. They also have a defense that is far superior, thanks to Saliba who has been the best CB in the tournament so far (and one of the best in the world). Combine a great defense with four incredible players in front of one of the world’s best keepers, and they’ll be hard to beat. Combine that with their experience and that challenge gets even tougher.
France will be way more difficult than Germany. They already fancied very strong rivals (Belgium, Portugal, Netherlands, Austria) and showed an amazing defense, whilst Spain struggled a lot against Germany, which was their only strong rival so far.
I really believe that this fixture could finish with a draw in the regular time, as I see this as a 50-50 game. Spain struggled a lot against Germany, France is better than Germany as I still believe we can see the best version of their attack. I cannot believe that we could see France out of the EURO scoring only 1 goal from open play. Sooner or later they’ll find a way to score goals, and this game with spaces could be a good chance to do it.
对我来说,这两支球队都是冠军的主要争夺者,赌西班牙队是本届杯赛中最好的球队并不容易,但赔率给了我们一个很好的机会。
西班牙一直处于非常高的水平。这对我来说是出乎意料的,因为我相信还有其他一些球队的实力更强,阵容更好(葡萄牙、英格兰、法国……)。然而,他们在这里,踢着精彩的足球,这支球队在欧洲杯上表现最好,进球更多,信心十足。
然而,我认为西班牙不能再提高了。是的,他们一直处于一个惊人的水平,但这是他们能做的最好的(这已经很惊人了)。但我们仍在等待法国队的最佳水平,以及他们的几位关键球员。这就是为什么我认为法国队可能会在这场比赛中被看好:他们有潜力发挥得更好,所以我们仍然可以看到一支更好的法国队。而对于西班牙,我们知道什么是我们能看到的最好的。
在对阵德国的比赛中,我看到了西班牙的一些弱点。从教练开始,他在比赛中做了两个非常糟糕的决定,在比赛处于一个完美的场景中,亚马尔和威廉姆斯过早地被换下。最糟糕的是:在新闻发布会上,他确信自己做了正确的决定。西班牙在下半场防守太多,丢了很多球。我也看到西班牙有点累了,但他们在加时赛最后一分钟的进球是幸运的。
西班牙将失去勒诺曼、佩德里和卡瓦哈尔。我认为唯一重要的缺阵是卡瓦哈尔,他是本届杯赛中最好的后卫之一。将被纳瓦斯取代,他可能是西班牙在这场比赛中的弱点。
西班牙队需要踢快节奏的足球,制造高压,同时在前场也要非常有效,因为他们不会有太多的机会。主要前锋莫拉塔的状态很糟糕,而威廉姆斯和亚马尔显然表现过度,就像两个没有经验的孩子。
考虑到西班牙与剩下的四支球队相比表现得有多好,你期待他们获胜是可以原谅的,但这项运动很少关心你的期望。法国在这种级别的国际比赛中有丰富的经验,这很可能就是原因所在。
到目前为止还没有人攻击过西班牙。只有德国在下半场创造了大量的机会。
法国队将使用我们熟悉的风格:慢节奏,他们不会在意防守,把控制比赛的机会留给西班牙,并在反击时利用空间杀死他们。在这个问题上,关键将是姆巴佩(到目前为止,他已经有60%的表现,很慷慨)和登贝莱,我希望他能出现在首发阵容中。在过去的两场比赛中,他一直是替补,但在对阵葡萄牙的比赛中,他一上场,就是球队中最好的球员。
西班牙将主宰这场比赛,法国不会在意的。法国队赢得这场比赛的方式是在西班牙控制下的慢节奏比赛,并在反击中被杀死。法国队非常清楚如何执行他们的防守计划。他们是后防线的磐石,到目前为止只丢了一个球(点球),他们知道他们只需要防守好,等待他们的锋线得分。
我相信法国队踢得一点也不差。他们一直在执行他们的计划,但是前场的危险更少了(主要是因为姆巴佩和格列兹曼状态不佳)。然而,尽管法国队在本届比赛中表现不佳,但他们的上限远高于西班牙队。他们的防守也非常出色,多亏了萨利巴,他是目前为止比赛中最好的后腰(也是世界上最好的后腰之一)。在世界上最好的门将之一的带领下,强大的防守加上四名不可思议的球员,他们将很难被击败。再加上他们的经验,这个挑战变得更加艰巨。
法国将比德国困难得多。他们已经遇到了非常强大的对手(比利时、葡萄牙、荷兰、奥地利),并展示了惊人的防守,而西班牙在面对德国时却表现得很挣扎,德国是他们迄今为止唯一的强大对手。
我真的相信这场比赛可以在常规时间内以平局结束,因为我认为这是一场50-50的比赛。西班牙在对阵德国的比赛中表现得很挣扎,法国比德国更好,因为我仍然相信我们可以看到他们进攻的最佳版本。我真不敢相信我们能看到法国队在公开比赛中只进1球就出局了。他们迟早会找到进球的方法,这场有空间的比赛可能是一个很好的机会。