Netherlands VS Turkey

Netherlands and Turkey lock horns in this EURO 2024 Playoffs quarter-finals battle at Olympiastadion in Berlin very early Sunday morning Beijing time. The stakes are, of course, extremely high! Us serious, profit-hungry bettors - as well as football enthusiasts - can expect a game of better than average - but not great – quality by this tournament's standards here. Most importantly, we have yet another terrific betting opportunity to extend the streak of 9/10 last picks won betting on this tournament – at the time of posting this preview. I expect the Netherlands - despite not having world-class offensive players - to push hard right from the first minute, putting big pressure on Turkey's defence which is not bad, but definitely has its weaknesses.. They have not kept a clean sheet in any of the four games in this tournament so far.. Even Georgia, a somewhat limited team, generated quite a lot in expected goals (xG) against Turkey.. The Turkey defence is not very well-structured and their defenders – and midfielders – have made quite a few silly/unforced mistakes. Odds of about 1.60 are available on the Netherlands getting the job done in 90 minutes of football. With the expected lineups – based on my strongly data-based expert analysis, this is way high and we will eagerly place a bet on the Netherlands! Yes, the important Frenkie de Jong was ruled out of this tournament through injury. The Barcelona, one of the biggest clubs in the world, midfielder has suffered from recurring ankle injuries. However, the bookies have over-reacted to his absence in this tournament. Missing him will, however, hurt Netherlands if they beat Turkey and face a top-team but against Turkey I will give De Jong being out only a little emphasis... Netherland's offense suffered from his absence in this tournament less than I would have expected in my in-depth pre-tournament analysis. The Netherlands' M. De Ligt is out due to an unspecified illness. As for Turkey, Demiral, Kokcu and Yuksek will miss this match.

Let's take a look at some more numbers: According to a well-known and respected German website, Transfermarkt.com, the Turkey squad has an estimated market value of some 325 million euros. This is a little too high though.. The Netherlands squad, on the other hand, is valued at a huge around 815 million! For reference,  the France squad, with players like Mbappe and Griezmann, is valued at 1050 million, only a little over 20% more than that of the Netherlands. I want to highlight, the total market values very often reflect the teams' level on the pitch well but can, of course, be misleading as well.. For example, a still extremely good player, Leo Messi, 37, who plays for Inter Miami in the MLS in the USA, is valued at "only" 30 million euros.. Let's take a look at the Netherlands' games in this tournament: they defeated Poland 1-2 in the first group stage game and deserved to win despite being far from their best level. The Poles, a lowly team in terms of pure, were energetic and active - better than expected as a whole in this game. Indeed, on a good day Poland can be a difficult opponent. For example, they took a point from France through a 1-1 draw in round 3. Even so, the Dutch had an impressive 65% ball possession and recorded many more goal attempts, shots off target (13-3), corner kicks, total passes, completed passes, attacks and dangerous passes. The expected goals (xG) numbers were 1.83-0.87 in Netherlands' favour. In their 2nd game they took a point from a very strong team, France, even recording one more shot on target! France played without Kylian Mbappe - one of the best footballers in the world - though. Even so, this match could easily have gone either way.. Early in the first half the Netherlands came close to scoring! In the second half the two top-teams seemed to be quite satisfied with a draw as both teams had won their opening match. France did, however, generate more in xG in this high-level clash.

In their last group stage game Netherlands lost 2-3 to Austria but I will not overreact to this! Yes, Austria were good – and definitely better than expected in this game - but I want to emphasize that the Netherlands played hugely below their normal level.  Especially midfielder J. Veerman, who is not a bad player and plays for a big Dutch club PSV Eindhoven, looked almost like an amateur player and was consequently substituted off the pitch - replaced with Simons already in the 35th minute. His performance - with a big number of abysmal assists was among the worst I have seen in a top-level international tournament for many years! Austria, as I expected, applied a style of play that was very difficult for the Netherlands to deal with.. Despite Joey Veerman's terrible mistakes and an overall lame performance the Netherlands recorded many more goal attempts, shots off goal (6-1), corner kicks (5-2), total passes, completed passes as well as attacks than Austria! The Netherlands also generated much more than Austria in xG - 1.86-1.03. Netherlands were very impressive in their last game, crushing Romania – who are, in all honesty, a limited team. The Dutch fully deserved the 3-0 win! They recorded hugely more goal attempts (24-6), shots on target (6-1), shots off goal (12-3), corner kicks (13-4), total passes, completed passes and attacks. Moreover, the Netherlands generated a fine 2.93 in xG – they defended very well, allowing Romania only 0.22 in xG. Turkey are expected to generate more than Romania in xG but as Turkey are not a team that usually concentrate on defending alone. If they become passive they will probably be in big trouble, the Netherlands could well generate even over 3.00 in xG here!

Turkey defeated Georgia 3-1 in their first match in this tournament but failed, in all honesty, to really impress me.. They had 52% ball possession and the expected goals (xG) numbers were surprisingly balanced - 2.39-2.11 to be precise. Turkey were clear favourites in this match - priced around 1.65 to win on the betting market but were a disappointment especially in terms of defensive quality.. They have improved significantly from this game though. The main rationale behind this pick is to take advantage of the Dutch being undervalued on the betting market. Turkey, on the other hand, have become only a little overrated after the win over Austria. ´. In the 2nd round Turkey lost to Portugal 0-3 and the Portuguese definitely deserved all three points. However, Turkey had their chances to score in the 1st half and silly defensive mistakes had a big role in them losing.. The 0-2 goal was an own goal by Turkey's Akaydin.. I need to mention that the final score flatters Portugal to some extent.

In round 3 Turkey defeated Czechia 2-1 and played pretty well, except for some 15-20 minutes in the second half when they were leading 1-0. For some reason they become quite passive, allowing the Czechs to attack - despite playing with only 10 men! Yes, giving the Czechs a chance to even possibly win the game does not flatter Turkey. Czechia's player, A Barak, was sent off in the 20th minute. This, of course, affected the game a lot!. Turkey had 62% ball possession and recorded many more goal attempts (18-12), shots off target, total passes, completed passes as well as attacks.  However, we should not forget that Turkey only needed a point to qualify for the Playoffs. Turkey are simply not at their best when defending and should remain active.. Against the Netherlands they will most probably be forced to defend quite a lot and would be surprised if they were able to stop the Netherlands' offense, with players like Cody Gakpo, who was excellent against Romania. I want to highlight that the Netherlands will most probably simply be too skilled individually - well-organized as a team for Turkey to take control of the events on the pitch.  Turkey do have a chance against the Netherlands but they would have to improve significantly from their last game – or be very lucky, the Dutch getting a red card - something unexpected should happen.. Even if Turkey were to play slightly above their normal level – and the Netherlands slightly below their best level – the latter would have a much bigger chance of qualifying for the semifinals! Austria had 57% ball possession and recorded many more goal attempts (21-6), shots on goal, shots off target (9-2), corner kicks (10-4), total passes, completed passes as well as attacks – 2.87-0.82. Austria were not at their best in this game and despite the 2-1 final score I was not impressed with their performance as a whole. M. Demiral scored the 1-0 goal in the 1st minute and the same player made it 2-0 in the 59th minute. However, in the second half, especially after M. Gregoritsch 2-1 goal Austria were able to put huge pressure on the Turkey defence. I would have expected Turkey to defend better – suffocating Austria's offense - forcing them to try to score from a distance - the key word element being low xG. In the very last moments Austria had a scoring chance with an xG number of some 0.92 (!) but Turkey had the "football gods" on their side and escaped with a win. Against Netherlands - a much better team than Austria in terms of pure class – and a team with players with much more individual skill than Austria – Turkey will probably not get away being as passive – should they be able to take the lead..

该文章通过有道机器翻译，仅供参考:

荷兰VS土耳其

北京时间周日凌晨，荷兰和土耳其将在柏林奥林匹亚球场展开2024年欧洲杯季后赛四分之一决赛的较量。当然，赌注是非常高的!我们这些认真的、追求利润的投注者——以及足球爱好者——可以期待一场比平均水平更好的比赛，但以本届锦标赛的标准来看，质量并不好。最重要的是，我们还有另一个绝佳的投注机会来延长9/10的最后一次选择赢得投注在这个锦标赛-在发布这个预览的时候。我希望荷兰队——尽管没有世界级的进攻球员——从第一分钟开始就向右推进，给土耳其的防线施加巨大的压力，土耳其的防线还不错，但肯定有弱点。到目前为止，他们在本届锦标赛的四场比赛中没有一场不失球。即使是格鲁吉亚，一支实力有限的球队，在对阵土耳其的比赛中也创造了很多预期进球(xG)。土耳其的防守结构不太好，他们的后卫和中场犯了不少愚蠢的非受迫性错误。荷兰队在90分钟内完成比赛的赔率约为1.60。与预期的阵容-基于我强烈的数据为基础的专家分析，这是方式高，我们将热切地把赌注押在荷兰!是的，重要的德容因伤不能参加这次比赛。这位世界上最大的俱乐部之一巴塞罗那的中场球员一直饱受脚踝伤病的困扰。然而，博彩公司对他缺席本届锦标赛反应过度。如果荷兰队击败土耳其并面对一支顶级球队，失去德容会对荷兰队造成伤害，但对阵土耳其时，我只会强调德容的缺阵。他的缺席给荷兰队的进攻带来的影响，比我在赛前的深入分析中预期的要小。荷兰队的德·利特因病缺席比赛。至于土耳其，德米拉尔、科克库和尤克塞克将缺席这场比赛。

让我们来看看更多的数据:根据德国知名和受人尊敬的网站Transfermarkt.com，土耳其队的市场价值估计约为3.25亿欧元。这有点太高了…另一方面，荷兰队的身价高达8.15亿欧元!作为参考，拥有姆巴佩和格列兹曼等球员的法国队的身价为10.5亿欧元，仅比荷兰队高出20%多一点。我想强调的是，总的市场价值通常很好地反映了球队在球场上的水平，但当然，也可能被误导。例如，一个仍然非常优秀的球员，37岁的里奥·梅西，效力于美国职业足球大联盟的迈阿密国际，他的价值“只有”3000万欧元。让我们来看看荷兰队在本届比赛中的表现:他们在小组赛第一场比赛中1-2击败波兰，尽管状态远未达到最佳水平，但他们理应获胜。波兰人，一支在纯粹上不太靠前的球队，在这场比赛中表现得充满活力和积极——整体上比预期的要好。事实上，如果运气好的话，波兰可能是一个难以对付的对手。例如，他们在第3轮1-1战平法国队，从法国队手中拿了1分。尽管如此，荷兰队的控球率高达65%，进球次数、射偏次数(13次3次)、角球次数、总传球次数、完成传球次数、进攻次数和危险传球次数都要多得多。荷兰队的预期进球数(xG)为1.83比0.87。在他们的第二场比赛中，他们从强大的法国队那里拿走了一分，甚至还记录了一次射正!尽管世界上最好的足球运动员之一姆巴佩缺席了法国队的比赛。即便如此，这场比赛也可能很容易走向任何一方。上半场开始，荷兰队差一点就进球了!在下半场，这两支顶级球队似乎对平局很满意，因为两队都赢得了首场比赛。然而，在这场高水平的比赛中，法国队确实产生了更多的xG。

荷兰队在小组赛的最后一场比赛中以2比3输给了奥地利，但我不会对此反应过度!是的，奥地利踢得很好——而且在这场比赛中肯定比预期的要好——但我想强调的是，荷兰队的表现远远低于他们的正常水平。尤其是效力于荷兰豪门埃因霍温(PSV Eindhoven)的中场球员维尔曼(J. Veerman)，他踢得还不错，看起来几乎像个业余球员，结果被换下了场——在第35分钟就被西蒙斯换下。他的表现——包括大量糟糕的助攻——是我多年来在顶级国际赛事中看到的最差表现之一!正如我所料，奥地利采用了一种对他们来说非常困难的打法

荷兰处理…尽管威尔曼犯了很多可怕的错误，荷兰队的表现也很糟糕，但他们的进球次数、射偏次数(6-1)、角球次数(5-2)、总传球次数、完成传球次数和进攻次数都比奥地利多!荷兰队的进球数也远高于奥地利队，为1.86比1.03。荷兰队在上一场比赛中给人留下了深刻的印象，他们击败了罗马尼亚——说实话，罗马尼亚是一支实力有限的球队。荷兰队完全配得上这场3-0的胜利!他们的进球次数(24-6次)、射正次数(6-1次)、射偏次数(12-3次)、角球次数(13-4次)、总传球次数、完成传球次数和进攻次数都要多得多。此外，荷兰在世界杯上创造了2.93分的进球——他们防守得很好，只给了罗马尼亚0.22分。预计土耳其在xG的进球将超过罗马尼亚，但土耳其不是一支通常专注于防守的球队。如果他们变得被动，他们可能会有大麻烦，荷兰很可能在这里产生超过3.00英镑的xG !

土耳其在本届杯赛的第一场比赛中以3-1击败格鲁吉亚，但说实话，没能给我留下深刻印象。他们有52%的控球率，预期进球数(xG)惊人地平衡——准确地说是2.39-2.11。在这场比赛中，土耳其显然是最受欢迎的球队，在博彩市场上的胜率约为1.65，但令人失望的是，尤其是在防守质量方面。他们从这场比赛中有了很大的进步。这一选择背后的主要理由是利用荷兰在博彩市场上被低估的机会。另一方面，在战胜奥地利之后，土耳其被高估了一点。´。在第二轮比赛中，土耳其0-3不敌葡萄牙，葡萄牙人完全配得上三分。然而，土耳其在上半场有机会得分，愚蠢的防守失误是他们输球的重要原因。0:2的进球是土耳其球员阿卡丁的乌龙球。我需要提到的是，最终比分在某种程度上对葡萄牙有利。

在第三轮比赛中，土耳其队以2-1击败了捷克队，除了下半场有15-20分钟的时间以1-0领先之外，土耳其队表现相当出色。由于某种原因，他们变得非常被动，让捷克人进攻——尽管他们只有10个人!是的，给捷克人赢得比赛的机会并不能取悦土耳其人。捷克球员巴拉克在第20分钟被红牌罚下。当然，这对游戏产生了很大影响!土耳其有62%的控球率，并且有更多的射门次数(18-12次)、射偏、总传球次数、完成传球次数和进攻次数。然而，我们不应该忘记土耳其只需要一分就能晋级季后赛。土耳其在防守时没有达到最佳状态，应该保持活跃。面对荷兰队，他们很可能会被迫防守很多，如果他们能够阻止荷兰队的进攻，他们会感到惊讶，因为他们有像科迪·加克波这样的球员，他在对阵罗马尼亚的比赛中表现出色。我想强调的是，对于土耳其来说，荷兰队很可能只是在个人技术上过于娴熟——作为一支球队，他们组织得很好，无法控制球场上的局势。土耳其确实有机会对阵荷兰队，但他们必须在上一场比赛的基础上有明显的进步——或者非常幸运，荷兰队得到一张红牌——否则会发生意想不到的事情。即使土耳其队的表现略高于他们的正常水平，荷兰队的表现略低于他们的最佳水平，后者也有更大的机会进入半决赛!奥地利有57%的控球率，并且有更多的射门次数(21-6)、射正、射偏(9-2)、角球(10-4)、总传球次数、完成传球次数和进攻次数(2.87-0.82)。奥地利在这场比赛中并没有发挥出最佳状态，尽管最后2-1的比分让我对他们的整体表现印象不深。德米拉尔在第1分钟打进1-0的进球，在第59分钟打进2-0的进球。然而，在下半场，特别是在格里戈利奇2-1破门之后，奥地利给土耳其的防线带来了巨大的压力。我本以为土耳其的防守会更好——窒息奥地利的进攻——迫使他们尝试从远处得分——关键因素是低xG。在最后时刻，奥地利有一个得分的机会，他们的xG值约为0.92(!)，但土耳其有“足球之神”的支持，他们以胜利逃脱了。对阵荷兰队——一支在纯粹水平上比奥地利强得多的球队——一支球员个人技术比奥地利强得多的球队——如果他们能够取得领先，土耳其可能不会像荷兰队那样被动。