Germany VS Spain

Spain and Germany lock horns in this EURO 2024 Playoffs quarter-finals clash at MHPArena in Stuttgart very early Saturday morning Beijing time. The stakes are, of course, sky-high here! Us serious, profit-hungry bettors and football fans can expect a match of elite quality by this tournament's standards! There have not been more than a few more high-quality games played in the last five years – the World Cup Final in Qatar – Argentina vs France being one of these rare games. Most importantly, we have a terrific chance of improving the excellent run of 9/10 last picks won betting on this tournament! Spain have been even better than I would have expected in my comprehensive, in-depth pre-tournament analysis. Yes, they have struggled with scoring enough goals against strong teams for years but seem to have solved the problem. Of course they have not faced a team of Germany's caliber in this tournament so far. They can still improve further offensively! Indeed, they have players like Williams, 21, who was excellent with Athletic Bilbao and has been one of the best players in this tournament in my opinion! He scored a fine goal against Georgia (3-1) – showing great speed and skill! Furthermore, Spain also have 16-year-old "wonder boy" Lamine Yamal, who played well in LaLiga and the UEFA Champions League with Barcelona - one of the biggest clubs in the world.. It seems that the bookmakers have failed to fully realize how much Spain have improved from the World Cup 2022 which was played in Qatar. Indeed, Morocco beat them in the Playoffs there, despite Spain being the better team on the pitch. They had 13 goal attempts but managed only one shot on target. Spain eventually lost this game in penalties. No goals were scored in the 90+30 minutes of extra time. In the group stage Spain and Germany played a 1-1 draw but Spain were the better team on the pitch. In the EURO 2020, played in 2021 because of the Covid-19 crisis, Spain were eliminated by Italy, the reigning champions, in the Playoffs but were the best team in this tournament in terms of expected goals (xG) and expected goals allowed (xGA) ratio. They are in 8th place in the FIFA Ranking but in my expert opinion they are the 4th-best national team in the world, taking into account not only the best possible starting eleven but the optimal list of substitutes. I also want to mention that I trust Spain's head coach L. de la Fuente a lot in terms of tactical abilities and as a leader. He would earn more respect in the football media!

 Let's not forget that Spain have won a whopping 14 of their most recent 16 matches! In this tournament they have won all four games – conceding only one goal! In their last match they crushed Georgia 4-1. Georgia, very undeservedly took the 1-0 lead in the 18th minute through an own goal by Robin Le Normand. I was impressed with the way Spaniards reacted to this! Yes, Georgia did have a few somewhat promising counter-attacks after the opening goal but Spain did not panic. After some 5-10 minutes of slight confusion – and Georgia, of course, being boosted by the goal – Spain took a very strong control of the game. It seemed as if the 1-1 goal was only a matter of time. It never looked like Georgia were going to win - at least without (even more) lucky goals – or a penalty and/or a red card for Spain.. I want to highlight that in terms of expected goals as well as many other key statistics this was one of the most one-sided games in this tournament! Georgia had a huge 72% ball possession and also recorded many more goal attempts - 36-4! I want to highlight that having over 30 goal attempts is very rare – and extremely impressive in any top-level international tournament! Yes, Georgia were not, in all honesty, a great team but we should still give Spain's impressive offensive performance enough emphasis. The xG numbers were 3.67-0.20 in Spain's favour. They recorded 13 shots on goal – Georgia had none! Moreover, Spain recorded 13 corner kicks – Georgia's number was zero. The number of completed passes – 772-229 - reflects Spain's huge dominance well! As mentioned before - as a result of being very offensive and aggressive - Spain did allow Georgia a few dangerous counter attacks. I believe they accepted the risk behind this strategy - knowing that Georgia only have one elite player, Kvaratskhelia. This very talented player, better known as "Kvaradona", played for Napoli in the Italian Serie A in the last two seasons. Spain seemed to be confident that in an open clash they would eventually generate so much more than Georgia in xG that their chances of winning – in the extra time at the latest – would be excellent. This is exactly what happened! However, they should not play at this risk level against Germany and I believe they are fully aware of this.. Not only their coach – but also most of the players are tactically smart – and play for big - or very big clubs! I want to mention especially Manchester City's Rodri, who is an almost perfect midfielder and is among the top-6 players on the planet in my expert opinion. Man City are the best team in the world, despite Real Madrid winning the Champions League last season. In 2023 Man City were the winners. Man City have also won four Premier League, the best league on the planet, four times in a row and Rodri's role in recent years has been huge! Without Rodri Man City struggled surprisingly much last season – his role in the Spanish team ,too, is massive. The way he passes the ball and moves on the pitch – almost always making the right decision and being in the right place – is pure "football art". He can also score goals, as he did against Georgia – making it 1-1 in the 39th minute. In round 1 Spain crushed Croatia, the team that finished in 3rd place in the World Cup 2022, 3-0 after a terrific but still not perfect performance. Indeed, Croatia, a dangerous team despite not making it to the Playoffs, did have their chances to score. Before this Spain beat Italy only 1-0 but were even more dominant on the pitch than I would have expected for most of 90 minutes of football! Italy, the reigning European Champions, managed only one shot on goal – Spain's number was eight! Moreover, Spain had an impressive 20 goal attempts! The xG numbers were very clear in Spain's favour, 2.10-0.22 to be precise. In round 3 Spain had nothing to play for left - as they had already won the group - but still comfortably beat Albania, an under-rated team who took a point from Croatia, 1-0 despite substantial squad rotation.. Spain being to rest many of their key players in this game will surely be very important moving forward..

I want to highlight that Spain have an edge over Germany in all areas of the game - except for goalkeepers (Simon vs Neuer) - and deserve to be solid favourites here! Neuer,38, was not at his best last season though and is in decline.. He suffered from a leg injury in 2023 and from a groin injury in March and April this year. Rudiger, who plays for Real Madrid, is the best defender in terms of pure class on the pitch in this match but as a whole I rate Spain's defence better than Germany's. Yes, the home advantage is, of course, there but there will also be a big number of Spain fans at the stadium! Moreover, the German fans have not been among the loudest in this tournament.. For example Turkey and England have more enthusiastic supporters. Most of the biggest bookies see Spain as very narrow favourites at the time of posting this in-depth analysis. Odds of around 2.70 on Spain getting the job done in the 90 minutes of play are widely available on the betting market. I see this match is slightly more low-scoring than the bookies do. Both teams are capable of defending in a very organized way – and as the stakes are high.. The probability of under 2.5 total goals to be scored is 57%. The Spain +0.5 goals handicap option is the obvious professional bettor's choice here.

The main rationale behind this pick is to take advantage of Spain being under-valued! Germany are only marginally over-rated on the betting market at the moment. Yes, Germany have won three of the four games in this tournament but have not faced any countries that are in the top-15 in the FIFA Ranking. Germany - a country with one of the best football cultures on the planet – and the third-best domestic league in the world - have been disappointing in recent years. There is no denying this and this has been openly and thoroughly discussed in the German football media, especially after the 2022 after the World Cup. In Qatar Germany even failed to qualify for the Playoffs.. However, they did have some bad luck in the group stage matches.. The EURO 2020, played in 2021 because of the Covid-19 crisis, was a disappointment for Germany as well.. This has understandably heavily affected their FIFA ranking. Indeed, they are now in 16th place in this ranking. This is too low though. Yes, Germany have a considerable number of talented players, for example Wirtz and Musiala in the squad.. They also have legends like Toni Kroos,34, who just won the Champions League with Real Madrid. His leadership and passing skills are world-class! His percentage of successful passes has been excellent, especially against Scotland and Hungary. Toni will retire after the EURO 2024 – a huge pity for us football enthusiasts and bettors.  However, if he plays below his normal level - or Spain find a way to handle him even better than I expect - Germany's chances of winning drop significantly..

According to a well-known and respected German website, Transfermarkt.com, Spain are the bigger team here. Indeed, the Spanish squad is valued at around 965 million euros. The Germany squad is valued at some 830 million but this is too high! Some 660-670 million would be a more realistic number. In their last game Germany beat Denmark, a team in decline, 2-0 as very clear favourites, priced around 1.58-1.65 to win in the 90 minutes of play. Yes, the Germans deserved to qualify but did not fully convince me! Let's not forget that Denmark were a few centimeters away from taking 1-0 in the second half but the goal was disallowed after a VAR check. A few moments later Germany took the lead through a penalty kick goal by Kai Havertz in the 53rd minute. I would say that penalty/no penalty given was a 50/50 situation.. The player to blame for the 2-0 goal was Denmark's goalkeeper Kasper Schmeichel. Jamal Musiala took advantage of his mistake in the 68th minute. Germany recorded more goal attempts (14-10) and attacks but the final score flatters them! The xG numbers were 2.21-.1.13. Germany will have to improve - or get lucky – if they want to eliminate Spain here.. Before beating Denmark Germany faced Switzerland and it was a 1-1 draw in the end. Germany were not at their best in this match. They needed only a point to win the group and this did undoubtedly affect the game.. Germany had 62% ball possession and recorded many more goal attempts, shot off target total passes, completed passes, attacks and dangerous attacks. The expected goals (xG) numbers were 1.64-0.67 in the Germans' favour. Switzerland's at times pretty active style of play caused some trouble for Germany. I want to highlight that Spain are a much stronger team than Denmark or Switzerland!

In round 2 Germany rather comfortably beat Hungary 2-0. Yes, Germany deserved to win but Hungary were not at their best level in this match. Germany were priced around 1.25 by the bookies to win this game - despite them winning this was yet another example of Germany being moderately over-valued on the betting market. They had 19 goal attempts but Hungary also had their chances! Indeed, the final score flatters Germany to some extent. They generated more in xG – but not by a very wide margin – 1.64-1.32 to be precise. In the opening round Germany were completely dominant, demolishing Scotland 5-1. Scotland's only goal was an own goal by A. Rudiger. Yes, Scotland's Porteous was sent off in the 44th minute which destroyed any marginal chances Scotland had to make a comeback. Germany were leading 3-0 at this point and were in full control of the events on the pitch! Scotland, rather surprisingly, recorded hardly any xG in this game! They were simply abysmal in this game. Germany, on the other hand, were better than I would have expected before the tournament kicked off.  I want to highlight that this was Germany's best game in the tournament so far. Spain, on the other hand, have been improving for every match and have not reached their full potential! Before the tournament started Germany beat Greece 2-1 at home despite not being their best. The Greeks, on the other hand, were more energetic and motivated than I would have expected.. Germany had 64% ball possession and also recorded three more goal attempts than Greece – 15-12. The Greeks, very surprisingly, generated significantly more than Germany in xG! Before this Germany played a goalless draw at home against Ukraine as big favourites according to the bookies. Ukraine were a disappointment in this tournament and failed to make the Playoffs - despite taking a respectable four points.

GOOD LUCK and thank you to all my fans! More very high-quality picks will be posted later today!

该文章通过有道机器翻译，仅供参考:

德国VS西班牙

北京时间周六凌晨，西班牙和德国将在斯图加特的MHPArena球场展开2024年欧洲杯季后赛四分之一决赛的较量。当然，这里的风险非常高!我们这些认真的、追求利润的投注者和球迷可以期待一场以本届锦标赛标准衡量的精英级比赛!在过去的五年里，没有比这更精彩的比赛了——卡塔尔世界杯决赛——阿根廷对法国就是其中一场罕见的比赛。最重要的是，我们有一个极好的机会来提高9/10的最后一次选择赢得了这次锦标赛的投注!西班牙队的表现甚至比我在赛前全面深入的分析中所预期的还要好。是的，多年来他们在面对强队时一直在努力取得足够的进球，但似乎已经解决了这个问题。当然，到目前为止，他们还没有在本届比赛中遇到过德国这样的球队。他们在进攻端还可以进一步提高!事实上，他们有像威廉姆斯这样的球员，21岁，他在毕尔巴鄂竞技表现出色，在我看来，他是本届锦标赛中最好的球员之一!在对阵格鲁吉亚的比赛中，他打进了一个漂亮的进球，展现出了惊人的速度和技术!此外，西班牙还有16岁的“神童”拉明·亚马尔，他在西甲和欧洲冠军联赛中都表现出色，效力于世界上最大的俱乐部之一巴塞罗那。博彩公司似乎没有完全意识到西班牙队在卡塔尔举办的2022年世界杯之后有了多大的进步。事实上，摩洛哥在那里的季后赛中击败了他们，尽管西班牙队在球场上表现得更好。他们尝试了13次射门，但只有一次射正。西班牙最终在点球大战中输掉了这场比赛。在90+30分钟的加时赛中没有进球。在小组赛中，西班牙队和德国队1-1战平，但西班牙队在球场上表现更好。在因新冠肺炎危机于2021年举行的2020年欧洲杯上，西班牙队在季后赛中被卫冕冠军意大利队淘汰，但在预期进球数(xG)和预期失球数(xGA)比率方面，西班牙队是本届锦标赛中最好的球队。他们在国际足联排名中排名第八，但在我的专家看来，他们是世界上第四好的国家队，不仅考虑到最好的首发11人，而且考虑到最佳的替补名单。我还想提一下，我非常信任西班牙队主教练德拉富恩特的战术能力和领导能力。他会在足球媒体上赢得更多的尊重!

别忘了，西班牙在最近的16场比赛中赢了14场!在本届杯赛中，他们赢得了所有四场比赛，只丢了一个球!在上一场比赛中，他们以4比1大胜乔治亚队。格鲁吉亚队在第18分钟凭借罗宾·勒·诺曼德的乌龙球以1:0领先。我对西班牙人对此的反应印象深刻!是的，格鲁吉亚在首个进球后确实有几次有希望的反击，但西班牙并没有惊慌。在经历了5-10分钟的轻微混乱之后——当然，格鲁吉亚也受到了进球的鼓舞——西班牙牢牢地控制了比赛。1比1的进球似乎只是时间问题。格鲁吉亚看起来永远不会赢——至少没有(甚至更多)幸运的进球——或者一个点球和/或一张红牌给西班牙。我想强调的是，从预期进球和其他关键数据来看，这是本届杯赛中最一边倒的比赛之一!格鲁吉亚队的控球率高达72%，而且他们的进球次数也更多——36比4!我想强调的是，超过30个进球是非常罕见的——在任何顶级国际赛事中都是非常令人印象深刻的!是的，说实话，格鲁吉亚不是一支伟大的球队，但我们仍然应该给予西班牙令人印象深刻的进攻表现足够的重视。xG指数为3.67-0.20，对西班牙有利。他们射门13次，格鲁吉亚一次也没有!此外，西班牙队打进了13个角球，而格鲁吉亚队则为0个。完成的传球数——772-229——很好地反映了西班牙的巨大统治力!正如前面所提到的，由于非常具有攻击性和侵略性，西班牙确实给了格鲁吉亚一些危险的反击机会。我相信他们接受了这种策略背后的风险——知道格鲁吉亚只有一名精英球员，克瓦拉茨基利亚。这位非常有天赋的球员，更广为人知的名字是“克瓦拉多纳”，在过去的两个赛季中为那不勒斯效力于意甲联赛。西班牙似乎很有信心，在一场公开的交锋中，他们最终会比格鲁吉亚产生更多的进球，他们获胜的机会——最迟在加时赛中——将是非常大的。事情就是这样!然而，他们不应该玩这个

对德国的风险水平，我相信他们完全意识到了这一点。不仅是他们的教练，而且大多数球员在战术上都很聪明，并且为大俱乐部或非常大的俱乐部效力!我想特别提到曼城的罗德里，他是一名近乎完美的中场球员，在我的专家看来，他是这个星球上排名前六的球员之一。曼城是世界上最好的球队，尽管皇家马德里上赛季赢得了欧冠冠军。2023年的冠军是曼城。曼城也赢得了四次英超冠军，这个星球上最好的联赛，连续四次，罗德里近年来的作用是巨大的!没有罗德里的曼城上赛季表现得非常糟糕——他在西班牙队中的作用也很重要。他在球场上的传球和跑动——几乎总是做出正确的决定，站在正确的位置——是纯粹的“足球艺术”。他也可以进球，就像他在对阵格鲁吉亚的比赛中所做的那样，在第39分钟将比分扳成1-1。在第一轮比赛中，西班牙队以3比0击败了克罗地亚队，这支球队在2022年世界杯上获得了第三名。事实上，克罗地亚队虽然没有进入季后赛，但他们确实有进球的机会。在此之前，西班牙仅以1-0击败意大利，但在90分钟的比赛中，他们在球场上的统治力甚至超出了我的预期!欧洲杯卫冕冠军意大利队只射进一球，而西班牙队的数字是8 !此外，西班牙队有令人印象深刻的20次射门!xG数据非常明显对西班牙有利，准确地说是2.10-0.22。在第三轮比赛中，西班牙队没有什么可踢的，因为他们已经赢得了小组冠军，但仍然轻松击败了阿尔巴尼亚队，一支被低估的球队，尽管阵容轮换充足，但他们还是以1比0从克罗地亚手中拿走了一分。西班牙队在这场比赛中休息了许多关键球员，这对他们的前进无疑是非常重要的。

我想强调的是，西班牙在比赛的所有领域都比德国有优势——除了门将(西蒙vs诺伊尔)——他们理应在这里成为最受欢迎的人!38岁的诺伊尔上赛季并没有处于最佳状态，而且正在走下坡路。他在2023年腿部受伤，今年3月和4月腹股沟受伤。效力于皇马的鲁迪格是本场比赛中表现最好的后卫，但总体而言，我认为西班牙队的防守比德国队要好。是的，主场优势当然存在，但球场上也会有大量的西班牙球迷!此外，德国球迷在本届比赛中并不是最大声的。例如，土耳其和英格兰有更多热情的支持者。在发表这篇深度分析时，大多数最大的博彩公司都认为西班牙队的夺冠热门非常有限。在博彩市场上，西班牙队在90分钟内完成比赛的赔率约为2.70。我看这场比赛比赌徒说的要少一些。两支球队都有能力以一种非常有组织的方式防守——因为赌注很高……总进球数少于2.5个的概率为57%。西班牙+0.5个进球障碍选项显然是职业赌徒的选择。

这个选择背后的主要理由是利用西班牙被低估的机会!目前，德国在博彩市场上只是被略微高估了。是的，德国队在本届世界杯的四场比赛中赢了三场，但没有遇到过国际足联排名前15位的国家。德国是世界上足球文化最好的国家之一，也是世界上第三好的国内联赛，但近年来却令人失望。不可否认的是，这一点在德国足球媒体上进行了公开和彻底的讨论，尤其是在2022年世界杯之后。在卡塔尔，德国队甚至没能晋级季后赛。然而，他们在小组赛中运气不佳。由于新冠肺炎危机而于2021年举行的2020年欧洲杯，对德国来说也是令人失望的。可以理解，这严重影响了他们在国际足联的排名。事实上，他们现在在这个排行榜上排名第16位。但这太低了。是的，德国有相当多的天才球员，比如维尔茨和穆西亚拉。他们还有像34岁的托尼·克罗斯这样的传奇人物，他刚刚随皇马赢得了欧冠冠军。他的领导能力和传球技术都是世界级的!他的传球成功率非常高，尤其是对阵苏格兰和匈牙利时。托尼将在2024年欧洲杯后退役，这对我们的足球爱好者和赌徒来说是一个巨大的遗憾。然而，如果他的表现低于正常水平——或者西班牙队找到了比我预期更好的方法来对付他——德国获胜的机会就大了

大幅下降。

根据德国一家知名且受人尊敬的网站Transfermarkt.com，西班牙队在这里更强大。事实上，西班牙队的价值约为9.65亿欧元。德国队的身价约为8.3亿美元，但这个数字太高了!更现实的数字是6.6亿到6.7亿。在上一场比赛中，德国队以2比0击败了正在走下坡路的丹麦队，这是非常明显的夺冠热门，在90分钟的比赛中，德国队的胜率在1.58比1.65左右。是的，德国人理应出线，但他们并没有完全说服我!让我们不要忘记，丹麦在下半场距离1-0只有几厘米的距离，但在VAR检查后，这个进球被判无效。几分钟后，德国队在第53分钟通过凯·哈弗茨的点球取得领先。我想说的是，罚点球和不罚点球的情况各占一半。2比0的进球应该归咎于丹麦门将卡斯珀·舒梅切尔。贾马尔·穆西亚拉在第68分钟利用了他的失误。德国队的进球次数(14胜10负)和进攻次数更多，但最终的比分让他们感到高兴!xG值为2.21 ~ 1.13。如果德国想要在这里淘汰西班牙，他们就必须改进——或者走运。在击败丹麦之前，德国面对瑞士，最后以1比1战平。德国队在这场比赛中没有达到最佳状态。他们只需要一分就能小组出线，这无疑影响了比赛。德国队的控球率为62%，进球次数、射门次数、传球次数、完成传球次数、进攻次数和危险进攻次数都更多。预期进球数(xG)为1.64-0.67，对德国队有利。瑞士队有时相当积极的打法给德国队带来了一些麻烦。我想强调的是，西班牙队比丹麦和瑞士强得多!

在第二轮比赛中，德国队以2比0轻松击败匈牙利队。是的，德国理应获胜，但匈牙利在这场比赛中没有发挥出最佳水平。尽管德国队赢了，但博彩公司给德国队开出的赔率在1.25左右，这是德国在博彩市场上被适度高估的又一个例子。他们有19次进球尝试，但匈牙利也有机会!的确，从某种程度上说，最终比分对德国有利。他们在xG中产生了更多——但不是很大的差距——准确地说是1.64-1.32。在首轮比赛中，德国队以5-1大胜苏格兰队，占据绝对优势。苏格兰唯一的进球是A.鲁迪格的乌龙球。是的，苏格兰的波蒂厄斯在第44分钟被红牌罚下，这摧毁了苏格兰逆转的所有机会。当时德国以3比0领先，完全控制了球场上的局势!令人惊讶的是，苏格兰在这场比赛中几乎没有打出任何xG !他们在这场比赛中简直糟透了。另一方面，德国队的表现比我在比赛开始前预期的要好。我想强调的是，这是德国队迄今为止在本届杯赛中表现最好的一场比赛。另一方面，西班牙每场比赛都在进步，但还没有发挥出他们的全部潜力!在比赛开始之前，德国队在主场2-1击败了希腊，尽管他们并没有发挥出最好的水平。另一方面，希腊人比我想象的更有活力和积极性。德国队有64%的控球率，并且比希腊多出3次射门，比分是15比12。令人惊讶的是，希腊人的收入比德国人多得多。在此之前，根据博彩公司的说法，德国队在主场与乌克兰打了一场0比0的平局。乌克兰在本届杯赛中表现令人失望，未能进入季后赛——尽管他们拿到了可观的4分。

祝你好运，谢谢我所有的粉丝!更多高质量的精选将在今天晚些时候发布!