Brazil VS Colombia

Brazil and Colombia lock horns in this Copa America round 3 clash at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, California, USA. This is the last round of the group stage. If teams finish on equal points at the end of the season, score difference will be the tie-breaker. In theory Brazil have not yet secured a place in the top-2 in this group of four teams. The top-2 teams will qualify for the Playoffs. However, in reality their chance of doing so is more than 99% probable.. Indeed, they have four points in their pocket and have a score difference of 4:1. I want to emphasize that Colombia are strong team with a lot of creative, fast and physical players! They are in 12th place in the FIFA Ranking. Brazil, on the other hand, are in 4th place. In their last game Brazil swept past Paraguay, winning 4-1. They were priced around 1.30 to win by the bookies. They deserved the win as they generated much more in xG – 4.11 – 0.55 to be precise. However, the key reason behind this clear win was Paraguay's lame performance. Their defence was very poorly structured and the distances between the players were often too long. Some of Paraguay's players looked a bit lazy in this game – especially after Brazil had taken 2-0 lead. The midfielders were not nearly active in defending. Before this Brazil were priced around 1.08-1.10 to win on the betting market but the resilient and well-organized Costa Rica took a point through a 0-0 draw. Brazil were, however, the better team on the pitch. Indeed, they had 70% ball possession and recorded many more goal attempts, shots on goal, shots off goal, attacks and dangerous attacks. However, as a whole I was not impressed with Brazil's offense. Their attacks were often too slow and predictable – allowing the opponent to organize the defence. Indeed, Brazil generated only 1.29 in xG. For a below 1.10 favourites this is a very lame number! Against Colombia they will need to pass the ball much faster and be more creative if they want to score – not to mention win. Yes, they are capable of doing this, of course, as they are a top-3 country in the world. However, they only need a point from to secure a top-2 position. I see the draw is a more probable result than the bookies do. This result would suit both teams well..  Moreover, the goal expectancy here is lower than the betting market seems to estimate. Indeed, the probability of under 2.50 total goals is 56.50%. Before the Costa Rica game Brazil were disappointing, failing to beat USA despite 58% ball possession. Brazil were priced around 1.30-1.35 to win by the bookies. This is yet another example of Brazil being overvalued by the bookies. Their level has undoubtedly dropped from the World Cup 2022 - played in Qatar late in 2022. Yes, they were beaten by Croatia in the Playoffs but this was an unlucky defeat. Before this loss they had played well. Brazil have won only four of their last 10 games..

Colombia have won both games in this group and have been in an incredibly strong form for a long time now. Indeed, they have not lost any of their last 25 games! Moreover they have won 10 matches in a row.. In their last game they beat Costa Rica 3-0 and played well. However, the final score does flatter them. Indeed, their number of xG was "only" 2.23. However, they defended very well, as usual, allowing the Costa Ricans only one shot on goal. Before this they were far from their best but beat Paraguay 2-1. Even so, Colombia had more shots on goal, goal attempts, total passes, completed passes, attacks and dangerous attacks. On the 16th of last month Colombia very easily defeated Bolivia 3-0 at a neutral location. It was a friendly game. Before this they were excellent, showing what they are capable of offensively! They used many slightly different tactics in this game. Yes, they were the favourites - in this friendly game played in the USA – but not very clear. They were priced around 2.40-2.50 to win. This is yet another example of Colombia being under-rated by the bookies. They recorded more shots on goal and goal attempts. They also generated much more in xG than USA. They have an excellent Argentinian head coach, N. Lorenzo. He is tactically smart but has also boosted the players' confidence a lot! There are some uncertainties in terms of (starting) lineups here. Brazil may well keep Real Madrid's star forward Vinicius Junior on the bench, as he and his Real Madrid teammate Eder Militao and Wendell are among the players on a yellow card and consequently in danger of being suspended.. There were two changes made to their starting eleven in the 2nd round as Wendell reclaimed his place at left-back over Guilherme Arana, while Savio came in for Raphinha. Even more rotation would definitely not be a surprise.. There were concerns about Colombian skipper James Rodriguez, who was taken off with less than 20 minutes remaining last Friday, USA time however Lorenzo has said it was only as a precaution. As for Colombia, three players will miss the quarter-finals with a caution on Tuesday, as Jefferson Lerma, Richard Rios and Jhon Cordoba are currently on one yellow card. J. Lucumi is questionable at the time of posting this analysis. Because of the uncertainties mentioned before it is impossible to give an as sharp as usual probability estimation but Brazil have an around 42-44% chance of taking all three points. Their odds around 1.85 are way too low, based on my in-depth expert analysis. Odds of over 2.00 on the Colombia +0.5 goals handicap are widely available on the betting market and we will take it! Lastly, I want to clarify that neither team want to risk injuries or suspensions, so I expect a somewhat cagey, probably pretty low-tempo game with some quality youngsters on each side given a chance to impress and entertain the fans...

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巴西VS哥伦比亚

在美国加州圣克拉拉的利维斯体育场，巴西和哥伦比亚将在美洲杯第三轮的比赛中展开对决。这是小组赛的最后一轮。如果两队在赛季结束时得分相等，则得分差将成为决胜局。从理论上讲，巴西还没有在这个由四支球队组成的小组中获得前二的席位。前两名的球队将有资格进入季后赛。然而，在现实中，他们这样做的可能性超过99%。事实上，他们已经拿到了4分，比分差距是4:1。我想强调的是，哥伦比亚是一支强大的球队，有很多有创造力、速度快、身体强壮的球员!他们在国际足联排名中排名第12位。另一方面，巴西排在第四位。在上一场比赛中，巴西以4比1大胜巴拉圭。博彩公司给他们开出了1.30左右的赔率。准确地说，他们在xG - 4.11 - 0.55中创造了更多的进球，他们理应获得胜利。然而，这场大胜背后的关键原因是巴拉圭差劲的表现。他们的防守结构很差，球员之间的距离经常太长。巴拉圭的一些球员在这场比赛中显得有些懒散，尤其是在巴西2-0领先之后。中场球员在防守时几乎不积极。在此之前，巴西在博彩市场上的胜率在1.08-1.10左右，但坚韧不拔、组织有序的哥斯达黎加以0-0战平了一分。然而，巴西队在球场上表现得更好。事实上，他们有70%的控球率，并且记录了更多的进球尝试、射正、射外、进攻和危险进攻。然而，总的来说，巴西队的进攻并没有给我留下深刻的印象。他们的进攻往往过于缓慢和可预测-允许对手组织防守。事实上，巴西的gdp仅为1.29。对于一个低于1.10的热门球员来说，这是一个非常蹩脚的数字!在对阵哥伦比亚的比赛中，如果他们想要得分，他们需要更快地传球，更有创造力——更不用说赢球了。是的，他们当然有能力做到这一点，因为他们是世界排名前三的国家。然而，他们只需要一分就能确保前2的位置。我看平局的可能性比博彩公司估计的要大。这样的结果对两队都有利。此外，这里的进球预期比博彩市场估计的要低。事实上，总进球数低于2.50的概率是56.50%。在与哥斯达黎加的比赛之前，巴西表现令人失望，尽管控球率为58%，但未能击败美国。博彩公司将巴西队的胜率定在1.30-1.35左右。这是巴西被博彩公司高估的又一个例子。与2022年底在卡塔尔举行的2022年世界杯相比，他们的水平无疑有所下降。是的，他们在季后赛中被克罗地亚队击败，但这是一次不幸的失败。在这次失利之前，他们打得很好。巴西在过去10场比赛中只赢了4场。

哥伦比亚队在小组赛中取得了两场胜利，并且在很长一段时间里一直保持着令人难以置信的强劲状态。事实上，他们在过去的25场比赛中没有输过一场!而且他们已经连续赢了10场比赛。在上一场比赛中，他们3-0击败了哥斯达黎加，踢得很好。然而，最后的分数确实让他们感到高兴。事实上，他们的xG数量“只有”2.23个。然而，他们像往常一样防守得很好，只让哥斯达黎加人射门一次。在此之前，他们远未达到最佳状态，但以2-1击败巴拉圭。即便如此，哥伦比亚的射门次数、进球尝试次数、总传球次数、完成传球次数、进攻次数和危险进攻次数都更多。上个月16日，哥伦比亚在一个中立的地点轻松地以3比0击败了玻利维亚。这是一场友谊赛。在此之前，他们表现出色，展示了他们的进攻能力!他们在这场比赛中使用了许多稍有不同的战术。是的，在这场在美国进行的友谊赛中，他们是最受欢迎的球队，但不是很清楚。它们的定价在2.40-2.50左右。这是哥伦比亚被博彩公司低估的又一个例子。他们记录了更多的射门和射门尝试。他们在xG的收入也比美国高得多。他们有一位出色的阿根廷主教练，n·洛伦佐。他在战术上很聪明，但也大大增强了球员们的信心!在首发阵容方面有一些不确定因素。巴西很可能会让皇马的明星前锋小维尼修斯留在替补席上，因为他和他的皇马队友埃德尔·米利塔奥和温德尔都是黄牌球员，因此有被禁赛的危险。在第二轮的比赛中，他们的首发阵容有两处变动，温德尔取代了吉列尔梅·阿拉纳重新占据了左后卫的位置，而萨维奥则换成了拉菲尼亚

． 更多的轮换绝对不会让人感到意外。美国时间上周五，哥伦比亚队队长詹姆斯·罗德里格斯在比赛还剩不到20分钟时被换下，但洛伦佐表示这只是为了预防。至于哥伦比亚队，有三名球员将因黄牌而缺席周二的四分之一决赛，他们分别是莱尔马、里奥斯和科尔多瓦。J. Lucumi在发表这篇分析时受到质疑。由于前面提到的不确定性，我们不可能给出一个像往常一样准确的概率估计，但巴西有42-44%的机会获得全部三分。根据我深入的专家分析，他们在1.85左右的赔率太低了。在投注市场上，哥伦比亚队+0.5个进球的赔率超过2.00，我们将接受它!最后，我想澄清的是，两支球队都不想冒着受伤或停赛的风险，所以我希望这是一场谨慎的，可能是相当慢节奏的比赛，双方都有一些优秀的年轻人给球迷留下深刻印象和娱乐的机会……