Austria VS Turkey

Austria and Turkey lock horns in this EURO 2024 Playoffs 1/8-finals battle at Red Bull Arena in Leipzig early Wednesday morning Beijing time. The stakes are, of course, extremely high and us serious bettors as well as football enthusiasts can expect a pretty open and entertaining game - at least compared to many other Playoffs games. The level of the game, will definitely not be very high by this tournament's standards though. The goal expectancy here is higher than the bookies estimate. The probability of over 2.50 total goals to be scored is 56.50%. Most importantly, we have yet another lucrative betting opportunity here! We have won six bets in a row betting on EURO 2024 – at the time of posting this preview! I have posted a very comprehensive, in-depth analysis on two other EURO 2024 games as well.

There is no doubt about the fact that Austria are the better team here as a whole. Yes, they deserve to be the favourites here but they have become way too hot on the betting market. They have been praised in the football media for their aggressive and entertaining style of play. At the core of their style of play is "gegenpressing" which is, in fact, a German word counter-pressing. One of the best-known coaches behind this tactic is Austria's German head coach, Ralf Rangnick. He used this strategy with Manchester United a few years ago but after the promising start many of the skilled and well-paid but a bit lazy Man United players started to dislike this physically very demanding tactic. Furthermore, the opponents also pretty quickly learned to deal with this tactic. At TSG Hoffenheim, (nowadays) a mediocre German Bundesliga team, this strategy worked for a quite long time - but this was many years ago and football - especially scouting the opponent's game is at another level today. After a brief period with Schalke 04, Rangnick joined TSG Hoffenheim in 2006, and achieved successive promotions to the Bundesliga. He departed the club in 2011 and returned to Schalke 04. I want to highlight that there simply is no "magically great" strategy in elite football! If intense (gegen)pressing was a superior strategy in an international tournament, why do none of the other top-teams, especially not France and England play this way..?  In fact their style of play is completely opposite. Yes, we of course have to take the characteristics and quality of the players into account but surely especially France, a team full of elite players, could easily apply gegenpressing but do not! However, I do respect Austria and their style of play - it has been fun to watch Austria against Poland and especially against the Netherlands. As a result, many football enthusiasts and recreational bettors probably like Austria now - cheer for them - and probably also bet on them here.. I will once more highlight that I will not be fooled by Austria's unorthodox style of play. My job is to make for my fans and myself - entertainment is not at the core of my work. Indeed, teams that play "boring football" are on average, in the long run  - much more profitable to bet on than teams who play open, entertaining football. This is understandable as football is, after all, mainly entertainmentment for the majority of the football enthusiasts. Moreover, in big tournaments, such as EURO 2024 and World Cups, there is much more "unwise" - or should I even say "stupid" - money on the betting market than say in a normal English Premier League or LaLiga game.. There have, to my delight, been surprisingly many games with very lucrative odds available in this tournament and this is the situation here as well! Indeed, the current odds of around 1.95 on Austria to win in the 90 minutes of play are way too low. With the expected lineups – based on my sophisticated in-depth analysis – Austria have a 41.50% chance to eliminate Turkey in the 90 minutes of football. We will place a bet on the Turkey +0.5 goals handicap option. Odds of around 1.90 are widely available on the betting market.

According to a well-known and respected German website, Transfermarkt.com, the Austria squad has an estimated market value of some 275 million euros. This is a little too low though. The Turkey squad, on the other hand, is valued at around 325 million. In general the total market values reflect the teams' level on the pitch well but can, of course be misleading as well. For example, a still extremely good player, Leo Messi, 37, is valued at "only" 30 million euros. My point here is that on paper the teams are pretty balanced. Austria do play better - in a more organized way as a team than Turkey. I will not deny this at all. That's the main reason why they do deserve to be the favourites. In terms of players' individual skill the Turks are perhaps even a little better than Austria on average. Yes, Turkey will be without the important Calhanoglu but the bookies seem to give his absence too much emphasis.. Indeed, the bookmakers often react to a key player being absent - I will not.  Turkey do, after all, have a large number of talented players in the team! S. Akaydin is also out. As for Austria, Trauner (muscle injury) and Wimmer (too many yellow cards) are out. Talking about the huge talent/skill Turkey have in the team I recommend that my fans watch particularly Arda Güler,19, very closely. This super talent plays for Real Madrid, the fresh UEFA Champions League winners – and one of the biggest teams in the world..

Turkey defeated Georgia 3-1 in the first Group Stage game but failed, in all honesty, to fully impress me. They had 52% ball possession and the expected goals (xG) numbers were 2.39-2.11 in their favour. Turkey were clear favourites in this game - priced around 1.65 to win on the betting market but were a slight disappointment especially in terms of defensive quality.. They have, as expected, improved significantly from this game though  - more than the results against Portugal and Czechia would reflect. I want to highlight that Georgia played above their normal level in this match! They also qualified for the Playoffs but lost to a very strong team, Spain 1-4. Before this Georgia beat Portugal 2-0 and played better than expected in this tournament.  In the 2nd round Turkey lost to Portugal 0-3 and the Portuguese definitely deserved the three points. However, Turkey had their chances in the 1st half and lost mainly due to silly defensive mistakes.. The 0-2 goal was an own goal by Akaydin.. I want to highlight that the final score is still very misleading! Portugal had only two more goal attempts than Turkey – 12-10 to be precise. Both teams had three shots on target. Furthermore, Turkey had many more corner kicks (9-1) as well as attacks - 44-39. The xG numbers were "only" 0.83-1.75 in Portugal's favour. In round 3 Turkey defeated Czechia 2-1 and played pretty well, except for some 15-20 minutes in the second half when they were leading 1-0. For some reason they become quite passive, allowing the Czechs to attack - despite playing with only 10 men! I am pretty sure many recreational bettors noticed this - giving it too much emphasis moving forward - resulting in underestimating Turkey. Yes, giving the Czechs a (small) chance to even possibly win the game does not flatter Turkey but we should, as my fans know, never over-react to a single game - not to mention 15-20 minutes of football. Let's also remember that Turkey only needed a point to qualify for the Playoffs.. Turkey are simply not at their best when defending and should remain active.. I believe their excellent  and often underrated coach knows this and will not make the same mistake here – if Turkey manage to take the lead.. Austria are a better-suited opponent for Turkey than the well-organized but more defensive and physically strong Czechia were.. Czechia's player, A Barak, was sent off in the 20th minute. This, of course, affected the game substantially. Turkey had 62% ball possession and recorded many more goal attempts (18-12), shots off target, total passes, completed passes as well as attacks. Turkey were the underdogs in this game according to the bookies – priced around 3.00 to win at the time of kickoff..

Austria defeated the Netherlands 3-2 in their last game. They were priced around 5.00 to win. However, the Dutch were far from the best in this game. Especially J. Veerman looked almost like an amateur player and was consequently substituted off the pitch, replaced with X. Simons already in the 35 minute - before he could do even more damage! His performance with several extremely bad assists was among the worst I have seen in an international tournament for years! Even so, the Dutch recorded many more goal attempts, shots off target (6-1), corner kicks (5-2), total passes, completed passes as well as attacks than Austria. The Netherlands also generated much more in xG -1.86-1.03 to be precise. I do not fully understand why Austria were praised so much in the football media after the game.. In my expert opinion the Dutch being disappointing was the main - but of course not only - reason behind Austria's triumph.. In the opening round France comfortably beat Austria 1-0 . Yes, the final score was not very clear but France generated 2.22 in xG – Austria managed only 0.54. France often do only what is necessary to win and this was the case in this game as well.. Furthermore, I also want to mention that Austria, the clear underdogs, also played a little better than usual in this game. In round 2 Austria beat Poland 3-1 and were the better team on the pitch but definitely now by a wide margin The final score flatters Austria. Indeed, both teams had 15 goal attempts. Austria had more shots on goal (9-3) but Poland recorded more shots off goal and corner kicks! Austria did generate more in xG but were also clear favourites in this game – priced around 2.00 to win. Let's not forget that despite the very lucky draw against France Poland were one of the weakest teams in this tournament. They lost two of their three games. Yes, Austria's performance against the Poles was good but nothing to get overly excited about..

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奥地利VS土耳其

北京时间周三凌晨，奥地利和土耳其将在莱比锡红牛竞技场展开2024年欧洲杯季后赛1/8决赛的激战。当然，赌注是非常高的，我们这些认真的投注者和足球爱好者可以期待一场相当开放和有趣的比赛-至少与许多其他季后赛比赛相比。比赛的水平，肯定不会是非常高的比赛的标准，虽然。这里的预期进球比博彩公司估计的要高。总进球数超过2.50个的概率为56.50%。最重要的是，我们还有另一个赚钱的赌博机会!我们已经赢了六个赌注在连续投注欧洲杯2024 -在发布这个预览的时候!我也对另外两场2024年欧洲杯进行了非常全面、深入的分析。

毫无疑问，奥地利在这里整体上是一支更好的球队。是的，他们理应成为最受欢迎的球队，但他们在博彩市场上已经变得太热门了。他们在足球媒体上因其侵略性和娱乐性的比赛风格而受到赞扬。他们踢球风格的核心是“gegenpressing”，实际上是一个德语单词“反压”。这一战术背后最著名的教练之一是奥地利的德国主教练拉尔夫·朗尼克。几年前他在曼联的时候就采用了这种战术，但是在这个充满希望的开局之后，许多技术娴熟、收入丰厚但有点懒惰的曼联球员开始不喜欢这种对身体要求很高的战术。此外，对手也很快学会了如何处理这种战术。在霍芬海姆(TSG Hoffenheim)，(现在)一支德甲平庸的球队，这一策略在很长一段时间内奏效——但这是很多年前的事了，而足球——尤其是侦察对手的比赛，在今天已经是另一个水平了。在沙尔克04短暂效力后，兰尼克于2006年加盟霍芬海姆，并连续升入德甲。他于2011年离开俱乐部，回到沙尔克04。我想强调的是，在精英足球中根本没有“神奇的伟大”策略!如果在国际比赛中密集的压迫是一种更好的策略，为什么其他顶级球队，尤其是法国和英格兰没有这样做?事实上，他们的打法完全相反。是的，我们当然要考虑球员的特点和素质，但可以肯定的是，特别是法国队，一支充满精英球员的球队，可以很容易地使用gengenpressing，但不要这样做!然而，我确实尊重奥地利和他们的比赛风格——观看奥地利对阵波兰，尤其是对阵荷兰的比赛很有趣。因此，许多足球爱好者和休闲赌徒现在可能喜欢奥地利，为他们加油，也可能在这里下注。我要再次强调，我不会被奥地利非正统的打法所愚弄。我的工作是为我的粉丝和我自己制作——娱乐不是我工作的核心。事实上，从长远来看，平均而言，踢“无聊足球”的球队比踢开放、有趣足球的球队更有利可图。这是可以理解的，毕竟足球主要是大多数足球爱好者的娱乐活动。此外，在2024年欧洲杯和世界杯等大型赛事中，博彩市场上的“不明智”——或者我应该说“愚蠢”——资金要比普通的英超或西甲比赛多得多。令我高兴的是，在这次比赛中，有很多比赛的赔率都非常高，这也是这里的情况!事实上，目前奥地利在90分钟的比赛中获胜的赔率约为1.95，这实在太低了。根据我的深度分析，在90分钟的比赛中，奥地利有41.50%的机会淘汰土耳其。我们将在土耳其+0.5个进球障碍选项上下注。在博彩市场上，大约1.90的赔率随处可见。

根据德国知名网站Transfermarkt.com的数据，这支奥地利球队的市场价值约为2.75亿欧元。不过这个有点太低了。另一方面，土耳其队的价值约为3.25亿欧元。总的来说，总的市场价值很好地反映了球队在球场上的水平，但当然也可能被误导。例如，37岁的里奥·梅西(Leo Messi)是一位仍然非常出色的球员，他的身价“仅”为3000万欧元。我的观点是，纸面上的球队是相当平衡的。奥地利踢得更好——作为一个团队，他们比土耳其更有组织性。我一点也不否认。这就是他们值得拥有的主要原因

成为最受欢迎的人。就球员的个人技术而言，土耳其人可能比奥地利人平均还要好一点。是的，土耳其将失去重要的卡尔汉奥卢，但博彩公司似乎过于强调他的缺席。事实上，博彩公司经常对关键球员缺席做出反应——我不会。毕竟土耳其队有很多有天赋的球员!阿卡丁也出局了。至于奥地利，特劳纳(肌肉受伤)和温默(黄牌过多)将缺阵。谈到土耳其在球队中拥有的巨大天赋/技能，我建议我的粉丝们仔细观察，特别是19岁的阿尔达·格<e:2>勒。这位超级天才效力于皇家马德里，这是欧洲冠军联赛的新冠军，也是世界上最大的球队之一。

土耳其队在小组赛第一场比赛中以3-1击败了格鲁吉亚队，但说实话，没能给我留下深刻的印象。他们有52%的控球率，预期进球数(xG)为2.39-2.11。在这场比赛中，土耳其显然是最受欢迎的球队，在博彩市场上的胜率约为1.65，但在防守质量方面有点令人失望。正如预期的那样，他们在这场比赛中有了很大的进步——比对阵葡萄牙和捷克的比赛结果所反映的要多。我想强调的是，格鲁吉亚队在这场比赛中的表现超出了他们的正常水平!他们也有资格进入季后赛，但以1比4输给了一支非常强大的球队西班牙。在此之前，格鲁吉亚以2比0击败葡萄牙，在本届比赛中表现得比预期的要好。在第二轮比赛中，土耳其0-3不敌葡萄牙，葡萄牙人完全配得上这三分。然而，土耳其在上半场有机会，输球主要是由于愚蠢的防守失误。0:2的进球是阿卡丁的乌龙球。我想强调的是，最终的分数仍然非常具有误导性!准确地说，葡萄牙的进球次数只比土耳其多两次——12比10。两队都有三次射正。此外，土耳其有更多的角球(9胜1负)和进攻(44胜39负)。对葡萄牙有利的xG值“仅”为0.83-1.75。在第三轮比赛中，土耳其队以2-1击败了捷克队，除了下半场有15-20分钟的时间以1-0领先之外，土耳其队表现相当出色。由于某种原因，他们变得非常被动，让捷克人进攻——尽管他们只有10个人!我敢肯定，许多娱乐博彩者都注意到了这一点——过于强调前进——导致低估了土耳其。是的，给捷克人一个(很小的)可能赢得比赛的机会并不会让土耳其人高兴，但我们应该，正如我的球迷所知道的，永远不要对一场比赛反应过度——更不用说15-20分钟的比赛了。让我们也记住，土耳其只需要一分就能晋级季后赛。土耳其在防守时没有达到最佳状态，应该保持活跃。我相信他们优秀但经常被低估的教练知道这一点，不会在这里犯同样的错误——如果土耳其能取得领先…奥地利比组织严密但防守更强的捷克更适合土耳其。捷克球员巴拉克在第20分钟被红牌罚下。这当然会对游戏产生重大影响。土耳其有62%的控球率，并且有更多的射门次数(18-12次)、射偏、总传球次数、完成传球次数和进攻次数。根据博彩公司的说法，土耳其在这场比赛中处于劣势，开球时的胜率约为3.00。

奥地利在上一场比赛中以3比2击败了荷兰队。他们的价格在5英镑左右。然而，荷兰队在这场比赛中远非最好的。尤其是维尔曼看起来简直像个业余球员，结果在35分钟就被x·西蒙斯换下下场——在他能造成更大的伤害之前!他有几次极其糟糕的助攻，这是我多年来在国际比赛中看到的最差的表现之一!尽管如此，荷兰队的进球次数、射偏次数(6-1)、角球次数(5-2)、总传球次数、完成传球次数以及进攻次数都比奥地利多。准确地说，荷兰在xG -1.86-1.03中也产生了更多的数据。我不完全理解为什么赛后奥地利在足球媒体上受到如此多的赞扬。在我的专家看来，荷兰队令人失望是奥地利获胜的主要原因，但当然不是唯一原因。在首轮比赛中，法国队以1比0轻松击败奥地利。是的，最后的比分不是很清楚，但法国队在世界杯上创造了2.22，而奥地利只创造了0.54。法国队经常只做必要的事情来赢得比赛，这场比赛也是如此。此外，我还想提一下奥地利

李尔队处于劣势，在这场比赛中也比平时打得好一点。在第二轮比赛中，奥地利队以3-1击败了波兰队，他们在球场上表现得更好，但现在绝对领先了一大比分。事实上，两队都有15次进球尝试。奥地利的射门次数更多(9比3)，但波兰队的射门次数和角球次数更多!奥地利在xG上赚得更多，但在本场比赛中也很受欢迎，价格在2.00左右。别忘了，尽管很幸运地和法国打成平局，但波兰队是本届杯赛中最弱的球队之一。他们三场比赛输了两场。是的，奥地利对波兰人的表现不错，但没什么好兴奋的。