Romania VS Netherlands

Romania and Netherlands lock horns in this EURO 2024 Playoffs 1/8-finals battle at Allianz Arena in Munich very early Wednesday morning Beijing time. The stakes are, of course, extremely high and us serious, profit-hungry bettors - as well as football enthusiasts - can expect a one-sided affair.. The level of the game will most probably not be very high by this tournament's standards.. Indeed, the difference in class between the two teams is substantial here – even bigger than the bookies seem to estimate.  I expect the Netherlands - despite not having world-class offensive players - to push hard right from the kickoff, mercilessly putting pressure on Romania's somewhat shaky defence.  Odds of over 1.40 are available on the Netherlands getting the job done in 90 minutes of play. With the expected lineups – based on my strong, data-based analysis, this is way too high! I do not often recommend a bet on a big favourite at pretty low odds but will make an exception here! For the fans who want to go for bigger odds - and accept a 51% chance of losing the bet - odds of around 2.30 are available on the Netherlands -1.5 goal handicap option. This means that the handicap bet is won if the Dutch win by a margin of at least two goals. Yes, the important Frenkie de Jong was ruled out of this tournament through injury. The Barcelona midfielder has suffered from recurring ankle injuries. However, the bookies have over-reacted to his absence! Missing him will, however, hurt the Dutch quite a lot if they beat Romania and face a top-team but against the lowly Romanians I will give him being out only a little emphasis..

Romania are the second-poorest team in the Playoffs, after Georgia who were already (easily) beaten by Spain (1-4). Romani currently occupy the 47th in the FIFA Ranking. This is too high. In my expert opinion they are not in the top-50 countries in the world in terms of pure class – taking into account not only the best possible starting eleven but also the optimal selection of substitutes. The Netherlands are a huge football country and also have very loud and loyal fans. The Netherlands did well in the World Cup 2022 in Qatar. They were, in fact,  very close to beating the eventual champions, Argentina, as the resilient two teams played a 2-2 draw after 90 minutes in the Playoffs. Argentina, a top-2 country in the world, led by Leo Messi, needed penalties to eliminate the Netherlands. They are in 7th place in the FIFA ranking which is, in all honesty, a little too high though. Even so, the Dutch have a massive edge over Romania – in all areas of the game. They also have a better coach than Romania – especially in terms of tactical skills.

The main rationale behind this pick is to oppose Romania, the Dutch are only moderately undervalued on the betting market at the moment. It is quite strange that a team that have won only one of their last seven games has qualified for the Playoffs! I would be very surprised if they were to defeat the Netherlands here. They would probably need a lot of luck -  the Dutch receiving a red card, an own goal by the Dutch, a lucky goal from a penalty, a corner or free kick– or a combination of these four to eliminate the Netherlands here.  Let's not forget that Spain scored an own goal against Georgia yesterday but – as mentioned before – were still able to win easily. Indeed, there are surprisingly big differences between some teams even in the Playoffs in this tournament! In their last game Romania faced Slovakia and it was a 1-1 draw. Odds on the draw were only around 2.10 as it was enough for both teams to qualify for the Playoffs.. However, Slovakia had more goal attempts, shot off target, corner kicks, total passes, completed passes and attacks. They also generated more in xG than Romania. In the first half they pressed Romania hard and Duda scored in the 24th minute. A win would have brought Slovakia first place in the group – and a much easier draw in the Playoffs.. Marin scored the 1-1 goal from the penalty spot in the 37th minute. In the 2nd half both teams avoided (major) risks.. There was nothing wrong with Romania's performance in this unusual game but they were also not even close to actually winning it.. Moreover, their performance, as a whole, was nothing to get too excited about. Their passive, defensive tactic almost caused them a defeat.. Well, one could also say that Romania simply do not have the offensive power needed to create many promising scoring chances - this is true!  I would not be at all surprised if the Dutch kept a clean sheet here.. Their defence does have some weaknesses, especially against teams who press them in a well-organized way, but Romania cannot execute this strategy. In the 2nd round Romania lost to Belgium 0-2. Yes, Belgium Yes, they deserved the three points but I was not overly impressed with their performance.. It was more about Romania being very disappointing. The ball possession was only 55-45% but we should not let this fool us - Romania kept the ball far from Belgium's goals for the most of the time.. Yes, Romania recorded a decent 13 goal attempts but Belgium's number was still much higher – 19 to be precise. The xG numbers were very clear in Belgium's favour. Belgium's odds kept dropping as the kickoff approached - reflecting that smart money – ie. Independent professional sports bettors and betting syndicates probably opposed Romania.. In the opening round Romania beat Ukraine as clear underdogs. However, the final score is the most misleading one in this tournament. Ukraine were very disappointing in this game and Romania took advantage of this. Ukraine were the better team early on but Romania - out of the blue -  took the lead in the 29th minute. Stanciu scored a fine goal from a distance but the xG for this shot was rather low.. After that Ukraine lost concentration and some of their even paralyzed – metaphorically speaking, of course. Even so, Ukraine had 66% ball possession and recorded many more goal attempts (14-10), shots off goal, corner kicks, total passes, completed passes and attacks in this match. Romania did generate more in xG, but their number was only 1.36. This upset win over Ukraine, a team that even many very skilled professional bettors saw big potential in, probably affects the odds even against Netherlands., Without this win Romania probably would not have qualified for the Playoffs.

Let's take a look at some more facts/numbers to prove my point about the Dutch being huge favourites here: According to a well-known and respected German website, Transfermarkt.com, the Romania squad has an estimated market value of some 92 million euros. This is still too high - three of their players are overvalued. Around 84-86 million would be a more accurate number. The Netherlands squad, on the other hand, is valued at a whopping around 815 million! For reference, the France squad, the best country in this tournament by pure class, is valued at 1050 million, only a little over 20% more than that of the Netherlands.  I want to highlight, that in general the total market values reflect the teams' level on the pitch well but can, of course be misleading as well. For example, a still extremely good player, Leo Messi, 37, who played for Inter Miami in the MLS, is valued at "only" 30 million euros. 

Netherlands beat Poland 1-2 in the opening round and deserved to win despite being far from their best. The Poles, a weak team, were energetic and better than expected as a whole in this match.  Even so, the Dutch had 65% ball possession and recorded many more goal attempts, shots off goal (13-3), corner kicks, total passes, completed passes, attacks and dangerous passes. The expected goals (xG) numbers were 0.87-1.83 in Netherlands' favour. In the 2nd round they took a point from a very strong team, France, even recording one more shot on goal. France played without Kylian Mbappe – one of the best players in the world - though. Even so, this match could easily have gone either way. Early in the second half the Netherlands came close to scoring!  In the second half the two top-teams seemed to be pretty happy with a draw as both teams had won their opening game. France did, however, generate more in xG. In their last game Netherlands lost 2-3 to Austria but I will overreact to this! Yes, Austria were good – and definitely stronger than expected in this game  -  but I want to emphasize that the Netherlands played hugely below their normal level! Especially midfielder J. Veerman, who plays for a big Dutch club PSV; looked almost like an average amateur player and was, as a result, substituted off the pitch, replaced with X. Simons already in the 35th minute. His performance with several extremely terrible assists was among the worst I have seen in an international tournament for many years! Austria, as expected, applied a style of play that was very hard for the Netherlands to deal with. Romania, despite being a physically fit-looking team, do not have the capacity to play in the same way! At the core of Austria's unique style of play in this tournament is "gegenpressing" which is, in fact, the German word counter-pressing. One of the best-known coaches behind this tactic in elite football – in Austria's case executed brilliantly, in an organized way -- is Austria's German head coach, Ralf Rangnick. Despite Joey Veerman's terrible mistakes and an overall disappointing performance the Dutch recorded many more goal attempts, shots off target (6-1), corner kicks (5-2), total passes, completed passes as well as attacks than Austria! The Netherlands also generated significantly more than Austria in xG -1.86-1.03 - to be precise...

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罗马尼亚VS荷兰

北京时间周三凌晨，罗马尼亚和荷兰将在慕尼黑安联球场展开2024年欧洲杯季后赛1/8决赛的较量。当然，赌注是非常高的，我们这些认真的、渴望利润的投注者——以及足球爱好者——可以期待一场一边倒的比赛。按照这次比赛的标准，比赛的水平很可能不会很高。事实上，两队之间的等级差异是巨大的，甚至比博彩公司估计的还要大。我希望荷兰队——尽管没有世界级的进攻球员——从开球开始就大力向右推进，无情地向罗马尼亚摇摇欲倒的后防线施压。荷兰队在90分钟内完成比赛的赔率超过1.40。根据我强有力的数据分析，预期的阵容太高了!我不经常建议在赔率很低的情况下下注，但在这里我会破例!对于那些想要获得更大赔率的球迷——并接受51%的赔率——荷兰-1.5进球障碍选项的赔率约为2.30。这意味着，如果荷兰队以至少两球的优势获胜，就可以赢得障碍赌注。是的，重要的德容因伤不能参加这次比赛。这位巴塞罗那中场一直饱受脚踝伤病的困扰。然而，博彩公司对他的缺席反应过度了!如果荷兰队击败罗马尼亚，面对的是一支顶级球队，失去他会对荷兰队造成很大的伤害，但对阵的是实力较弱的罗马尼亚人，我只会稍微强调一下他的缺阵。

罗马尼亚是季后赛第二穷的球队，仅次于被西班牙(1-4)轻松击败的格鲁吉亚。罗姆人目前在国际足联排名中排名第47位。这太高了。在我的专家看来，就纯粹的水平而言，他们不在世界前50名之列——不仅考虑到最好的首发11人，而且考虑到最佳的替补人选。荷兰是一个足球大国，也有非常响亮和忠诚的球迷。荷兰队在2022年卡塔尔世界杯上表现出色。事实上，他们非常接近击败最终的冠军阿根廷队，在季后赛90分钟后，这两支充满活力的球队以2比2打平。在梅西的带领下，世界排名前二的阿根廷队需要点球才能淘汰荷兰队。他们在国际足联排名中排名第七，说实话，有点太高了。即便如此，荷兰队在比赛的各个方面都比罗马尼亚队有巨大的优势。他们也有比罗马尼亚更好的教练，尤其是在战术技巧方面。

这个选择背后的主要理由是反对罗马尼亚，荷兰队目前在博彩市场上只是被适度低估了。一支在过去七场比赛中只赢了一场的球队居然有资格进入季后赛，这真是太奇怪了!如果他们在这里击败荷兰队，我会非常惊讶。他们可能需要很多运气——荷兰队吃红牌，荷兰队的乌龙球，点球，角球或任意球的幸运进球——或者这四种情况的结合才能在这里淘汰荷兰队。让我们不要忘记，西班牙在昨天对阵格鲁吉亚的比赛中打进了一个乌龙球，但正如之前提到的，他们仍然能够轻松取胜。事实上，在这个锦标赛的季后赛中，一些球队之间的差距也大得惊人!在上一场比赛中，罗马尼亚与斯洛伐克打成1-1平局。平局的赔率只有2.10左右，因为两支球队都有资格进入季后赛。然而，斯洛伐克有更多的进球尝试、射偏、角球、总传球、完成传球和进攻。他们在xG的收入也超过了罗马尼亚。上半场他们对罗马尼亚施压，杜达在第24分钟进球。一场胜利将使斯洛伐克队获得小组第一的位置——在季后赛中更容易打成平手。第37分钟，马林在点球点打进1比1的进球。下半场两队都避免了(重大)风险。罗马尼亚在这场不同寻常的比赛中的表现并没有什么问题，但他们离真正的胜利还差得很远。此外，他们的表现，作为一个整体，没有什么值得太兴奋。他们消极的防守战术几乎使他们失败。当然，也有人会说罗马尼亚没有足够的进攻能力来创造很多有希望的得分机会——这是真的!如果荷兰队在这里保持零封，我一点也不惊讶。他们的防守确实有一些弱点，特别是面对那些组织严密的球队时

但罗马尼亚无法执行这一战略。在第二轮比赛中，罗马尼亚0-2不敌比利时。是的，比利时，他们配得上三分，但我对他们的表现不太满意。罗马尼亚的表现更令人失望。控球率只有55比45%，但我们不应该被这个数字愚弄——罗马尼亚大部分时间都把球控在远离比利时球门的地方。是的，罗马尼亚有13次进球，但比利时的数字要高得多——准确地说是19次。xG的数字很明显对比利时有利。随着开球时间的临近，比利时队获胜的几率不断下降——这反映了这笔精明的投资。独立的职业体育投注者和博彩集团可能反对罗马尼亚。在首轮比赛中，罗马尼亚击败了明显处于劣势的乌克兰。然而，最终比分是本届赛事中最容易误导人的。乌克兰在这场比赛中非常令人失望，罗马尼亚利用了这一点。乌克兰队一开始表现更好，但罗马尼亚队在第29分钟取得领先。斯坦丘远射进了一个漂亮的进球，但是这个射门的xG相当低。在那之后，乌克兰失去了注意力，一些人甚至瘫痪了——当然，这是打个比方。尽管如此，乌克兰在本场比赛中拥有66%的控球率，并且有更多的射门次数(14-10次)、射门次数、角球次数、总传球次数、完成传球次数和进攻次数。罗马尼亚在xG方面确实有更多，但他们的数字只有1.36。这场意外战胜乌克兰的比赛，可能会影响到对阵荷兰队的赔率，就连许多非常有经验的职业投注者都看到了这支球队的巨大潜力。如果没有这场胜利，罗马尼亚可能无法进入季后赛。

让我们来看看更多的事实/数据来证明我关于荷兰队是大热门的观点:根据德国一家知名和受人尊敬的网站Transfermarkt.com，罗马尼亚队的市场价值估计约为9200万欧元。这个数字还是太高了——他们有三名球员被高估了。大约8400万到8600万是更准确的数字。另一方面，荷兰队的身价高达8.15亿欧元!作为参考，法国队是本届比赛中最优秀的球队，其估值为10.5亿欧元，仅比荷兰队高出20%多一点。我想强调的是，总的市场价值很好地反映了球队在球场上的水平，但当然也会有误导。例如，37岁的里奥·梅西(Leo Messi)是一名仍然非常出色的球员，他曾效力于美国职业足球大联盟(MLS)的国际迈阿密队(Inter Miami)，他的身价“仅”为3000万欧元。

荷兰队在首轮比赛中1-2击败波兰队，尽管状态远未达到最佳，但荷兰队理应获胜。波兰人，一支弱队，在这场比赛中表现得很有活力，比预期的要好。尽管如此，荷兰队的控球率还是达到了65%，他们的进球次数、射偏次数(13次3次)、角球次数、总传球次数、完成传球次数、进攻次数和危险传球次数都要多得多。荷兰队的预期进球数(xG)为0.87-1.83。在第二轮比赛中，他们从强队法国队那里拿走了一分，甚至还多射了一球。尽管世界上最好的球员之一姆巴佩缺席了法国队的比赛。即便如此，这场比赛也可能很容易走向任何一方。下半场刚开始，荷兰队差一点就进球了!在下半场，两支顶级球队似乎对平局很满意，因为两队都赢得了首场比赛。不过，法国的外汇储备确实更多。荷兰队在上一场比赛中以2比3输给了奥地利，但我会对此反应过度!是的，奥地利踢得很好——而且在这场比赛中绝对比预期的更强——但我想强调的是，荷兰队的表现远远低于他们的正常水平!尤其是效力于荷兰豪门埃因霍温的中场球员维尔曼;看起来就像一个普通的业余球员，结果在第35分钟就被x·西蒙斯换下了场。他的几次极其糟糕的助攻是我多年来在国际比赛中看到的最糟糕的表现之一!不出所料，奥地利运用了一种让荷兰队难以对付的打法。罗马尼亚，尽管是一支身体健康的球队，但没有能力以同样的方式踢球!奥地利在本届比赛中独特的打法的核心是“gegenpressing”，实际上是德语单词“反压”。在精英足球中，这种战术的最著名的教练之一是奥地利的德国主教练拉尔夫·朗尼克(Ralf Rangnick)。在奥地利，这种战术执行得非常出色，而且很有组织。尽管乔伊·维尔曼犯了很多可怕的错误

总体表现令人失望，荷兰队的进球次数、射偏次数(6-1)、角球次数(5-2)、总传球次数、完成传球次数以及进攻次数都比奥地利多!准确地说，荷兰在xG -1.86-1.03的收入也明显高于奥地利。