Portugal VS Slovenia

Portugal and Slovenia lock horns in this UEFA EURO 2024 Playoffs 1/8-finals battle clash at Deutsche Bank Park in Frankfurt early Tuesday Morning Beijing time. The stakes are, of course, very high but I expect a pretty one-sided clash.. The difference is class between the two teams is substantial here.  Indeed, football fans and us serious, profit-hungry bettors can expect a match of pretty mediocre level by this tournament's standards here. Most importantly, we have yet another lucrative betting opportunity here! We have won six bets in a row betting on EURO 2024.  Most of my fans probably know by now that I pretty rarely recommend a bet on a heavy favourite - with a -1.5 handicap, let alone a bigger handicap.. However, professional sports betting is all about odds and probabilities at the end of the day and here we will side with Portugal and must accept the fact the we do not have a super-high chance of winning. Well, I pretty rarely go for very low odds of around 1.30-1.45 anyway.. Let's take a closer look at this fascinating game, especially betting-wise..

The bookmakers have made more mistakes than I would have expected before the tournament started – and substantially more than in the EURO 2020.. We will, of course, keep taking advantage of these mistakes! Portugal are in 6th place In the FIFA Ranking which is more or less correct. The top-4 countries, including two South American countries Argentina and Brazil, are undoubtedly better than Portugal in terms of pure class, but the differences between the teams that I rank in 5-7th places are narrow. Slovenia, on the other hand, are in 57th place but this is a little too high. 59th-61st would be a more realistic place for them in the ranking.. Slovenia simply cannot match Portugal in any area of the game – not even close! In terms of offensive quality the difference is  bigger than in terms of offensive quality. Odds of around 2.10-2.13 on the Portugal -1.5 goals handicap are widely available on the betting market at the time of writing this analysis late Sunday evening Beijing time - and the odds are - rather unsurprisingly - dropping.. I expect more smart money from independent professional bettors and betting syndicates to keep piling up on Portugal.. With the expected lineups – based on my sophisticated, strongly data-based analysis, they have a 55.50% chance of winning by a margin of at least two goals!

 Yes, they lost to Georgia in their last match 0-2 as huge favourites - priced around 1.30-1.37 to win on the betting market -  but I will give this match very little emphasis. Indeed, Portugal's excellent Spanish head coach, R. Martinez rotated his squad heavily as Portugal had nothing to play for left. He is a great leader, a likable guy and tactically smart as well. Slovenia's head coach, Matjaz Kek, 62, is not nearly as good as Martinez. I want to emphasize that Portugal had already won the group after two rounds of play - after two strong - but not perfect performances!  Moreover, many of Portugal's players did not seem to be quite 100% focused/motivated in the game against a lowly opponent -  trying to save energy and avoid injuries. This was probably not a surprise to any clever bettor! Even so, Portugal were criticized in the football media, especially in Portugal, after the match and this probably has some effect on the odds against Slovenia here.. Let's take a look at the facts/statistics: Portugal did, after all, have a whopping 68% ball possession and recorded many more goal attempts (23-7), shots on goal, shots off target, corner kicks (11-1), total passes, completed passes, attacks and dangerous attacks. They also generated more in expected goals (xG) than Georgia – not by a wide margin though. Before this they beat Turkey, an erratic but dangerous team on a good day, Turkey 3-0! They were priced around 1.65 to win the game by the bookies. Let's not forget that Turkey qualified for the Playoffs and will face Austria later this week.. There is a lucrative bet available on this game as well - an in-depth high-quality preview will be posted on Monday! Portugal deserved the three points but we must realize that fact that Turkey did make some silly mistakes in this game – making it very easy for Portugal to win. However, I am pretty sure that Portugal would have won the game even without Turkey's mistakes/ lack of solid structure on the pitch - especially in the 1st half. The 2-0 goal was an own goal by Turkey's S. Akaydin in the 28th minute. No, Turkey were not at their best but I was impressed by the way Portugal played in this match. They generated significantly more in xG and also had more goal attempts, shots off goal, total passes and completed passes. Both teams had three shots on goal though. After the 3-0 goal by the terrific B. Fernandes - one of the few high-performing Manchester United players last season - Portugal concentrated mainly on securing a win. Even after the 2-0 they played the way a smart elite team should play  - and  were not (overly) offensive anymore.. To sum up, it was a mature, convincing performance from Portugal as a whole. Even so Portugal can still improve as the tournament progresses..

In the opening round Portugal did not quite meet my (high) expectations against Czechia (formerly Czech Republic) but the Czechs also played better than I would have expected. Portugal's F. Conceicao scored the winning goal late into the 2nd half, in the 90th+2 minute to be precise. Even so, Portugal were the much better team on the pitch as a whole! Yes, their attacks were undoubtedly slightly too slow and predictable in the first half but improved a lot in the 2nd half! They had a close to 70% ball possession and also recorded many more goal attempts (19-5), shots on target (8-1), corner kicks (13-0), total passes, completed passes, attacks and dangerous attacks. The xG numbers 1.90-0.21 - reflect the events on the pitch well. Before this Portugal crushed Ireland 3-0 at home in a friendly game. In the  EURO 2024 Qualification Group J Portugal were totally dominant, winning all 10 matches! They scored a whopping 36 goals and allowed only two goals! Portugal are not among the top-3 favourites to win the EURO 2024 but definitely have a chance to do so! They won the EURO 2016 and many of their players play for the biggest club in Europe. One of the best players in the history of football Cristiano Ronaldo, 39, is of course way past his prime but has played better than I would have expected after some 1.5 years in the Saudi Pro League, the level of which is, in all honesty, not very high. He is a true leader and has won almost everything possible in football, except for the World Cup. CR7 has won a whopping five Ballon d'Ors in his extremely impressive career!

Yes, Slovenia have performed marginally better than I expected in my in-depth pre-tournament analysis. I want to highlight that them beating Portugal would not be a gigantic surprise as they are better than for example Georgia who are massive underdogs against Spain and everybody would surely be very surprised if they were to win.. I need to go back in time and mention that about a year ago I watched Slovenia live at Helsinki Olympic Stadium, in my hometown, in an EURO 2024 Qualification clash against my home country's national team, Finland, who are at the moment  - and have been -  a very limited team in the last three or so years. Even so, Finland won 2-0 and Slovenia were lame as a whole! At that time I would never have believed to see Slovenia qualify for the Playoffs in the EURO 2024.. Yes, they have improved since then but have, as a result, become way too hot on the betting market! Quite a few football journalist, commentators and recreational bettors seem to see Slovenia is the dark horse in this tournament but I disagree. Before they tournament they played a disappointing 1-1 draw with a lowly and declining team, Bulgaria, at home as big favourites, priced around 1.60 to win by the bookies in a friendly game. It was a pretty balanced game as a whole. In this tournament they have played three draws but we must not not forget the facts! Slovenia were the worse team on the pitch in all three matches! In the opening round they took a point from disappointing, ageing and declining Denmark through a 1-1 draw. We, of course, made money betting on Germany against Denmark on Saturday Germany time. Against Slovenia Denmark had 62% ball possession and also recorded more goal attempts, shots on goal, corner kicks, total passes, completed passes, attacks and dangerous attacks. The Danes also generated more in xG. In the 2nd round they played a 1-1 draw but Serbia were far from their best in this match - and were one of the biggest disappointments in this tournament. Even so, the Serbs had 56% ball possession and also recorded more goal attempts (15-10), total passes, completed passes, attacks and dangerous attacks. Serbia also generated more in xG 1.76-1.22 -  to be precise. Slovenia's offense was pretty straightforward and predictable in this match  - as any smart football bettor would have expected. They are usually not capable of passing the ball quicky from player to player near the opponent's goal - even against much worse teams than Serbia, not to mention against an elite team like Portugal.  As for absentees, Slovenia will be without E. Janza who plays in Poland for Górnik Zabrze. One of their two most important players - along with their goalkeeper Oblak - striker Sesko, has not seemed to be quite 100% fit in this tournament – at least he has been far from his best so far. This is a big problem for Slovenia. Another key striker, Sporar, is simply not good enough for this level – the Playoffs stage of an EURO tournament I mean.. I would not be at all if Portugal were to suffocate Slovenia's offense – quite possibly keeping a clean sheet. In the last round of group stage Slovenia took the point they needed to qualify. Yes, Slovenia's performance was satisfactory but England were, once again, almost hilariously passive - and extremely disappointing as a whole! Even so, the "Three Lions" had 72% ball possession and allowed Slovenia only one shot on goal! The xG numbers were 0.98-0.16.. For clarification, he England national football team are called 'The Three Lions' because of their iconic crest, which features three lions. The crest they sport is the official emblem of the English Football Association, which was founded in 1863. Ever since then, the nickname has stuck. England will face Switzerland, who we of course betted on against Italy, in the next round. An interesting game - and possibly a tasty bet - is on the cards there..

Yes, Slovenia have a very good goalkeeper, Oblak,31, - who plays in the Spanish LaLiga for Atlético Madrid - and B. Sesko, 21, mentioned before, plays in the German Bundesliga for RB Leipzig - a strong but not an elite team - is a talented guy and at his best he can definitely be dangerous.. All other Slovenian players are, in all honesty, nothing to get too excited about – or worth mentioning here.. As for Portugal I want to first mention R. Leao, a super-fast, skilled and constantly improving forward, who plays for one of the biggest clubs in Italy, and Serie A champions in 2022, AC Milan. I expect him to be a huge problem for Slovenia's defence which is more vulnerable than the last three matches would suggest.. They also have Manchester City's Silva (estimated market value a staggering about 70 million euros), Real Madrid legend Pepe,41, who played even better than expected with Porto in the Champions League last season. He makes very few mistakes! This physical and smart defender is the oldest players in this tournament. Together with C. Ronaldo Pepe is the backbone and leader of the team. His presence - especially the ability to motivate and boost other players - is very important both on the pitch – and in the locker room – especially in difficult moments.. They also have striker Goncalo Ramos, who plays for one of the biggest clubs in the world, reigning French Champions PSG. He took rightfully Ronaldo's place in the starting eleven and went on to score no less three goals against Switzerland, a very dangerous team, in a Playoffs game in the World Cup 2022 in Qatar. This game was expected to be much more balanced than it turned out to be. Indeed, Portugal were priced around 2.00 to win in the 90 minutes of football but proved their class - taking a hugely impressive 6-1 win! They were later eliminated by Morocco though– despite being the better team on the pitch.. Morocco simply defended very well and were in a "flow state" and also had quite a lot of luck on their side. Lastly I want to mention that according to a well-known and respected German website, Transfermarkt.com, the Portugal squad is valued at a staggering 1.05 billion (1050 million) euros! The Slovenia squad is valued at only around 140 million euros – which is still too high in my expert opinion. In general the total market values reflect the teams' level on the pitch well but can, of course be misleading as well. For example, a still extremely good player, Leo Messi, 37, is valued at only 30 million euros. Indeed, one must really know the teams and players. To sum up, this game is - in many ways - a "David versus Goliath" battle..

GOOD LUCK to all my fans - let's keep making even more money together! I will post more picks later on Monday!

该文章通过有道机器翻译，仅供参考:

葡萄牙VS斯洛文尼亚

北京时间周二凌晨，葡萄牙队和斯洛文尼亚队在法兰克福德意志银行公园球场展开了2024年欧洲杯季后赛1/8决赛的激战。当然，赌注非常高，但我预计会出现相当一边倒的冲突。这两支球队的阶级差别很大。的确，足球迷和我们这些认真的、追求利润的投注者可以期待一场以本届锦标赛的标准来看相当平庸的比赛。最重要的是，我们还有另一个赚钱的赌博机会!我们已经连续六次赢下2024年欧洲杯的赌注。我的大多数粉丝现在可能都知道，我很少会推荐在最受欢迎的比赛上下注-1.5的障碍，更不用说更大的障碍了。然而，职业体育博彩在一天结束时都是关于赔率和概率的，在这里我们将站在葡萄牙一边，必须接受这样一个事实，即我们没有很高的获胜机会。好吧，反正我也很少选择1.30-1.45左右的低赔率。让我们仔细看看这个迷人的游戏，特别是赌博方面。

博彩公司在比赛开始前犯的错误比我预期的要多，比2020年欧洲杯的错误多得多。当然，我们会继续利用这些错误!葡萄牙在国际足联排名中排名第六，这或多或少是正确的。排名前4位的国家，包括两个南美国家阿根廷和巴西，在纯粹的水平上无疑比葡萄牙要好，但我排名在5-7位的球队之间的差距很小。另一方面，斯洛文尼亚排在第57位，但这有点太高了。对他们来说，59 -61是一个更现实的排名。斯洛文尼亚在比赛的任何领域都无法与葡萄牙匹敌——甚至差得远!在进攻质量方面的差异比进攻质量方面的差异更大。在北京时间周日晚上写这篇分析的时候，在博彩市场上，葡萄牙的胜率约为2.10-2.13，赔率为1.5，而且赔率正在下降，这并不令人意外。我预计会有更多来自独立专业投注者和博彩集团的聪明资金继续涌入葡萄牙。根据我复杂的、强有力的基于数据的分析，他们有55.50%的机会以至少两个进球的优势获胜!

是的，他们在上一场比赛中以0比2输给了格鲁吉亚队，他们是夺冠热门——博彩市场上的胜率在1.30-1.37左右——但我对这场比赛的重视程度并不高。事实上，葡萄牙优秀的西班牙主教练马丁内斯(R. Martinez)在葡萄牙没有左路可踢的情况下，对阵容进行了大量轮换。他是一个伟大的领导者，一个可爱的家伙，战术上也很聪明。62岁的斯洛文尼亚主教练马贾兹·凯克(Matjaz Kek)远不如马丁内斯出色。我想强调的是，葡萄牙已经在两轮比赛之后赢得了小组冠军——在两轮强劲但并不完美的表现之后!此外，许多葡萄牙队的球员在面对实力不强的对手时，似乎并没有百分之百的专注和动力——他们试图节省体力，避免受伤。这对任何聪明的赌徒来说可能都不奇怪!尽管如此，葡萄牙在赛后还是受到了足球媒体的批评，尤其是在葡萄牙，这可能对对阵斯洛文尼亚的几率产生了一些影响。让我们来看看事实和数据:毕竟，葡萄牙拥有高达68%的控球率，并且记录了更多的进球次数(23-7)、射正、射偏、角球(11-1)、总传球次数、完成传球次数、进攻次数和危险进攻次数。他们的预期进球数(xG)也比格鲁吉亚多，但差距并不大。在此之前，他们击败了土耳其，一个不稳定但危险的球队，在一个好的日子里，土耳其3-0!博彩公司给他们开出了1.65左右的价格来赢得比赛。别忘了土耳其已经晋级季后赛，本周晚些时候他们将面对奥地利。有一个有利可图的赌注可在这个游戏，以及-深入的高质量预览将在周一发布!葡萄牙理应得到三分，但我们必须认识到，土耳其在这场比赛中确实犯了一些愚蠢的错误，这让葡萄牙很容易取胜。然而，我非常肯定，即使没有土耳其的失误/球场上缺乏坚实的结构，葡萄牙也会赢得比赛——尤其是在上半场。2-0的进球是土耳其的S. Akaydin在第28分钟的乌龙球。不，土耳其没有达到最佳状态，但我对葡萄牙队在这场比赛中的表现印象深刻。他们产生了更多的xG，也有更多的进球尝试

射门次数，总传球次数和完成传球次数。两队都有三次射门。在出色的费尔南德斯(上赛季曼联为数不多的表现出色的球员之一)3-0进球后，葡萄牙主要集中精力确保胜利。即使在2:0之后，他们也打出了一支聪明的精英球队应该打的方式，而且不再(过度)进攻了。总而言之，这是葡萄牙队成熟而令人信服的表现。即便如此，葡萄牙仍然可以随着比赛的进行而进步。

在首轮对阵捷克的比赛中，葡萄牙队没有达到我的期望，但捷克人的表现也比我预期的要好。葡萄牙队的孔西乔(F. Conceicao)在下半场快结束时打进致胜一球，准确地说，是在第90 +2分钟。即便如此，葡萄牙队在球场上的整体表现要好得多!是的，他们的进攻在上半场无疑有点太慢了，但在下半场有了很大的进步!他们的控球率接近70%，并且有更多的进球尝试(19-5)、射正(8-1)、角球(13-0)、总传球次数、完成传球次数、进攻次数和危险进攻次数。xG数字1.90-0.21 -很好地反映了球场上发生的事件。在此之前，葡萄牙在一场友谊赛中主场3-0击败爱尔兰。在2024年欧洲杯预选赛中，葡萄牙完全占据了统治地位，赢得了全部10场比赛!他们进了36个球，只丢了2个球!葡萄牙不是最有希望赢得2024年欧洲杯的前三名，但绝对有机会!他们赢得了2016年欧洲杯，他们的许多球员都在欧洲最大的俱乐部效力。39岁的克里斯蒂亚诺·罗纳尔多是足球史上最优秀的球员之一，当然，他的黄金时代已经过去了，但在沙特职业联赛效力了1.5年之后，他的表现比我想象的要好得多，说实话，沙特职业联赛的水平并不高。他是一个真正的领袖，几乎赢得了足球场上的一切，除了世界杯。CR7在他令人印象深刻的职业生涯中赢得了多达5次金球奖!

是的，斯洛文尼亚的表现比我在赛前的深入分析中预期的要好一些。我想强调的是，他们击败葡萄牙不会是一个巨大的惊喜，因为他们比格鲁吉亚要好，格鲁吉亚在对阵西班牙时处于劣势，如果他们赢了，每个人都会感到非常惊讶。我需要回顾一下，大约一年前，我在我家乡的赫尔辛基奥林匹克体育场观看了斯洛文尼亚队在2024年欧洲杯预选赛上对阵我祖国的芬兰队的现场直播，芬兰队在过去三年左右的时间里一直是一支非常有限的球队。即便如此，芬兰还是以2比0获胜，而斯洛文尼亚整体表现很差!那时候我根本不敢相信斯洛文尼亚能进入2024年欧洲杯的季后赛。是的，从那以后他们有了进步，但结果是，在博彩市场上变得太热了!不少足球记者、评论员和娱乐赌客似乎都认为斯洛文尼亚是本届杯赛的黑马，但我不这么认为。在他们的比赛之前，他们与实力不强的球队保加利亚打了一场令人失望的1-1战平。在主场，保加利亚被认为是大热门，在友谊赛中，博彩公司开出的赔率约为1.60英镑。这是一款非常平衡的游戏。在这次比赛中，他们打了三场平局，但我们不能忘记事实!斯洛文尼亚是三场比赛中表现最差的球队!在首轮比赛中，他们1-1战平了令人失望、年龄渐长、实力渐弱的丹麦队，从丹麦队手中拿到1分。当然，我们在德国时间周六赌德国对阵丹麦赚了钱。在对阵斯洛文尼亚的比赛中，丹麦的控球率为62%，并且有更多的射门次数、射门次数、角球次数、总传球次数、完成传球次数、进攻次数和危险进攻次数。丹麦人也产生了更多的xG。在第二轮比赛中，他们1-1战平，但塞尔维亚队在这场比赛中远远没有发挥出最好的水平，也是本届杯赛中最令人失望的球队之一。尽管如此，塞尔维亚人的控球率为56%，并且进球次数(15-10次)、总传球次数、完成传球次数、进攻次数和危险进攻次数也更多。准确地说，塞尔维亚在1.76-1.22之间的进球数也更多。在这场比赛中，斯洛文尼亚的进攻相当直接和可预测——正如任何聪明的足球投注者所预料的那样。在对手的球门附近，他们通常无法在球员之间快速传球——即使是面对比塞尔维亚差得多的球队，更不用说面对像葡萄牙这样的精英球队了。至于缺阵的球员，斯洛文尼亚将没有在波兰比赛的詹扎

Gornik扎布热。他们最重要的两名球员之一——以及门将奥布拉克——前锋塞斯科，在本届杯赛中似乎并没有完全恢复——至少他还远没有达到最佳状态。这对斯洛文尼亚来说是个大问题。另一名主力前锋斯波拉尔，在这个级别——我的意思是欧洲杯的季后赛阶段——还不够好。如果葡萄牙扼杀了斯洛文尼亚的进攻——很有可能保持零失球，我就完全不担心了。在最后一轮小组赛中，斯洛文尼亚取得了出线所需的积分。是的，斯洛文尼亚的表现是令人满意的，但英格兰队又一次表现得被动得可笑，而且整体上非常令人失望!即便如此，“三狮军团”拥有72%的控球率，只给了斯洛文尼亚一次射门机会!xG值为0.98 ~ 0.16。澄清一下，英格兰国家足球队被称为“三狮军团”，因为他们标志性的徽章上有三只狮子。他们使用的徽章是1863年成立的英格兰足球协会的官方标志。从那时起，这个绰号就一直沿用至今。英格兰将在下一轮面对瑞士，我们当然押注瑞士会战胜意大利。一个有趣的游戏——可能是一个美味的赌注——就在那里。

是的，斯洛文尼亚有一位非常优秀的门将，31岁的奥布拉克，效力于西甲的马德里阿特拉西亚队，还有前面提到的21岁的塞斯科，效力于德甲的莱比锡RB队，这是一支强队，但不是精英球队，他是一个有天赋的家伙，在他的最佳状态下绝对是危险的。所有其他斯洛文尼亚球员，说实话，没有什么值得太兴奋的-或者值得一提的是在这里。至于葡萄牙，我想首先提到R. Leao，他是一名速度超快、技术精湛、不断进步的前锋，效力于意大利最大的俱乐部之一，也是2022年意甲冠军AC米兰。我希望他能成为斯洛文尼亚后防线的一个巨大问题，斯洛文尼亚的后防线比过去三场比赛更加脆弱。他们还拥有曼城的席尔瓦(估计市场价值高达7000万欧元)，41岁的皇马传奇人物佩佩，他上赛季在波尔图的欧冠表现甚至超出了预期。他很少出错!这位身体强壮、聪明的后卫是本届杯赛中年龄最大的球员。与c·罗纳尔多一起，佩佩是球队的骨干和领袖。他的存在——尤其是激励和激励其他球员的能力——无论是在球场上还是在更衣室里——尤其是在困难时刻都非常重要。他们还有前锋拉莫斯(Goncalo Ramos)，他效力于法国卫冕冠军巴黎圣日耳曼，这是世界上最大的俱乐部之一。在2022年卡塔尔世界杯的季后赛中，他在对阵瑞士这支非常危险的球队的比赛中打进了至少3球。这款游戏原本应该比实际情况更加平衡。事实上，葡萄牙在90分钟的比赛中赢得的价格在2.00左右，但他们证明了自己的实力——以令人印象深刻的6-1获胜!他们后来被摩洛哥淘汰，尽管他们在球场上表现更好。摩洛哥防守很好，处于“流动状态”，而且运气也很好。最后我想提一下，根据德国知名网站Transfermarkt.com的数据，葡萄牙队的价值高达10.5亿欧元(10.5亿欧元)!斯洛文尼亚队的价值仅为1.4亿欧元左右——在我的专家看来，这仍然太高了。总的来说，总的市场价值很好地反映了球队在球场上的水平，但当然也可能被误导。例如，37岁的里奥·梅西(Leo Messi)仍然是一名非常出色的球员，他的身价仅为3000万欧元。的确，你必须真正了解球队和球员。总而言之，这场比赛在很多方面都是一场“大卫对歌利亚”的战斗。

祝我所有的粉丝好运-让我们一起赚更多的钱!我将在周一晚些时候发布更多的精选!