Switzerland vs USA

This is one of the friendly matches played right before the European Championships. These games are always a bit harder to estimate as motivation is not always 100% and teams often test different tactics and players and make a lot of substitutions. However, I see some value here for several reasons. Let's take a closer look.. First of all Switzerland are not a top5 team in Europe but still a very good European football nation and their team has been on a rise for several years and play great as a team: I would say they are a better team than the player list would suggest. However, many of their key players play in top European clubs in responsible roles. Competition within the team is fierce and only a handful of players can be pretty much 100% sure of their position in the starting eleven so I am expecting to see a 95% motivated team today. Of course players will avoid maximum physical contact and unnecessary risks as no player wants to miss perhaps once in a lifetime tournament where the team has a genuine chance of succeeding!

The last time Switerland lost was Novermber 11 2020 against the very good Belgium and even in that match they played on a decent level losing 0-1. In their latest games they have beaten Finland, Lithuania, Bulgaria and a very talented Ukraine (3-0). A particularly good performance! On the other hand USA are a team in decline and have not beaten top European or South American teams for several years. They do have a convincing record on paper as most of their opponents like Jamaica, Trinindad & Tobago and Panama who are of pretty low-quality and USA haven't beaten a big football nation in years. I strongly believe the betting market does give enough emphasis on this fact and USA are over-valued.. They of course won't be playing in EURO 2020 next month and their goal is in Bahrain World Cup next year so expect them to be less motivated then hosts here and to test new players and do even more substitutions today.

Switzerland have some 60% chance of winning here.

这是欧洲杯前的一场友谊赛。这些比赛总是很难估计，因为动机不是100%的，球队经常测试不同的战术和球员，并做出很多替换。然而，我认为这里有一些价值，原因如下。让我们仔细看看…首先，瑞士不是欧洲排名前五的球队，但仍然是一个非常优秀的欧洲足球国家，他们的球队几年来一直在上升，踢得很好:我想说他们是一支比球员名单上所说的更好的球队。然而，他们的许多关键球员都在欧洲顶级俱乐部担任重要角色。球队内部的竞争非常激烈，只有少数球员可以100%确定自己在首发11人中的位置，所以我希望今天能看到一支有95%积极性的球队。当然，球员会尽量避免身体接触和不必要的风险，因为没有球员想错过也许一生一次的比赛，而球队有一个真正的机会成功!

上一次瑞士队输球是在2020年11月11日对阵实力强大的比利时队，即使是那场比赛，瑞士队也以0-1的比分输掉了比赛。在最近的几场比赛中，他们击败了芬兰、立陶宛、保加利亚和才华横溢的乌克兰(3-0)。一场特别好的演出!另一方面，美国是一支正在衰落的球队，已经好几年没有打败过欧洲或南美的顶级球队了。他们的记录确实令人信服，他们的对手牙买加、特立尼达和多巴哥和巴拿马的质量都很差，而美国已经很多年没有打败过一个足球大国了。我坚信博彩市场对这一事实给予了足够的重视，美国被高估了。他们当然不会参加下个月的2020年欧洲杯，他们的目标是明年的巴林世界杯，所以预计他们会比东道主少一些动力，今天会测试新球员，做更多的换人。

瑞士在这里有60%的胜算。