England VS Slovakia

England and Slovakia lock horns in this EURO 2024 1/8-finals clash at Veltins Arena in Gelsenkirchen very early Monday morning Beijing time. The stakes are, of course, sky-high and I expect a pretty defensive and nervous game. The goal expectancy here is even a bit lower than the bookies estimate. Indeed, the probability of under 2.5 total goals to be scored is 61%. Football fans and us serious, profit-hungry bettors can expect a match of rather mediocre quality by this tournament's standards here. Most importantly, we have a great betting opportunity to make even more profit betting on this big tournament. Indeed, we have won five of the last picks betting on this tournament at the time of posting this analysis! I have previewed another EURO 2024 match and will post more picks on this tournament later on Sunday!

Even the biggest bookies have made surprisingly many mistakes with their odds in this tournament, many more than in EURO 2020 which was played in 2021 because of the Covid-19 crisis. England made it all the way to the final despite not being very convincing in many games. They lost to Italy in penalties 1-2 though. In the semifinals, against Denmark, they were very clear favourites but needed extra time to qualify. I would also like to highlight that they had the support of their loyal and loud (home) fans behind them.. I would say that England have declined only moderately from the EURO 2024 level but they have definitely been worse than in the World Cup in Qatar 2022.. They were beaten by France, the eventual finalists, in the Playoffs but were only slightly the worse team on the pitch, losing 1-2 in the end. In the EURO 2024 Qualification Group C they played well, winning the group with a fine 20 points. However, their number of expected points (xPTS) was somewhat lower.. Italy finished in 2nd place and Ukraine 3rd. We just witnessed Italy being abysmal against Switzerland, losing 0-2 after a very low number of expected goals (xG) created.. Ukraine failed to qualify for the Playoffs. My point is that, in fact, England did not face very tough opponents in the group. I believe the strong results in the qualification affect the odds even here.. Moreover, the English Premier League is the best league on the planet and is also the most popular in terms of media coverage, number of people watching it on TV as well as betting volumes. This probably plays a role in England very often being overvalued on the betting market as football fans and recreational bettors are familiar with the English players and, as a result, overvalue them - and the English national team. Furthermore, betting is extremely popular in England and as this country has a pretty big population, and England have a lot of fans abroad as well, bookies are "forced" to offer England winning, also in handicap betting, even lower odds than they should based on their probability estimation. Indeed, the bookies have to manage risk.

On paper England are, of course, superior here. They have players like Bellingham, who was excellent with Real Madrid, the UEFA Champions League winners last season. They also have Manchester City's ultra-talented Foden, the player of the season 2023-2024 in the Premier League, Arsenal's star Saka and one of the best strikers in the world, Harry Kane. He scored a lot of goals for the German giants, Bayern Munich. However, all four players have looked frustrated in all of the three games so far, especially against Slovenia. Jude Bellingham has been extremely disappointing but the main problem has been England playing way too slow and defensive football. As a result England cannot benefit from their super stars' individual skill!  England are, however, an imbalanced team which is never a good thing. Their goalkeeper, Pickford is only an average goalie for this level.. He plays for Everton, a worse-than-average Premier League team. England's defence is worse than it has been for decades – compared to the other big countries! Even Manchester United's Harry Maguire would have been a big help for England, despite being erratic and many online memes and jokes that mock him circulating.. Only Manchester City's Kyle Walker is an elite player. For example Trippier, Guehi and Stones are far from this! England's head coach, Gareth Southgate has been heavily criticized in the football media even before the tournament started and the criticism has become stronger as a result of England's very disappointing performances. There have also been rumours of a tense atmosphere in England's locker room.. The pressure on them must be huge at the moment. Indeed, almost all bookies saw them as the biggest favourites before the tournament kicked off. 

Southgate's style of play is simply too "pessimistic" and defensive. I do not trust him in terms of tactical skills – and particularly not as a leader! Most football fans and bettors probably agree with me. No one seems to really understand his tactics.. Yes, it is of course possible that he will tell his players to play more active football against Slovakia – taking controlled risks. England have big potential for improvement and I have, of course, taken this into account in my probability estimation. It would not be a massive shock if England were to win this say 4-0 but this is very improbable. A quick goal could make them relax.. However, changing style of play drastically in the middle of the tournament is very hard and there is nothing suggesting that Southgate would be willing to make considerable changes..

England are in the 5th place in the FIFA Ranking but even at their best they are not quite among the best five countries in the world – taking into account not only the best possible starting eleven but also the optimal substitutes. Based on their performances in this tournament – and the friendlies played prior to the tournament – they are not even top-12! However, as mentioned I have not calculated the probability estimation based on their recent performances only! Yes, they have a clear edge over Slovakia in all areas of the game. They have a 61% chance of winning in 90 minutes of football. Their odds on the betting market, however, are only about 1.40. We will, of course, take the Slovakia +1.5 goals handicap option. Odds of around 1.65 are widely available and the chance of winning once again is 67%. If England take the lead, they will probably mainly aim at protecting the lead, not taking risks to score more goals. Slovakia have been pretty active in many games recently but are expected to defend hard here, perhaps even with all 11 men at times.. I do not believe that they will change their tactics significantly even if they were to end up trailing by a margin of one goal. However, Serbia were able to force England to defend in the opening round in the second half when England were leading 1-0.. It's, in fact, hard to tell how the Slovak's will play here in different situations (score). We must remember that Serbia have a little more skilled and more physically strong individuals than Slovakia.. Serbia and Slovakia are about the same level as a whole though.

Slovakia are in the 45th in the FIFA rankings, but this is too low. 39-40th would be a more accurate estimation. In the EURO 2024 Qualification they lost only to Portugal, a strong team, and finished in 2nd place with a fine 22 points! They won seven of the 10 games in Group J! They have lost only one of their last six matches – to Ukraine in the 2nd round in this tournament. 1-2 was the final score but the match was a very balanced one in terms of expected goals (xG). Both teams had the same number of shots on goal and goal attempts. Slovakia had 54% ball possession and more total passes, completed passes and attacks. The match could easily have gone either way.. Slovakia were priced around 3.40-3.60 to win the game by the bookies. This was yet another example of them being undervalued by the bookmakers! Slovakia beat Belgium, FIFA ranking 3rd, as huge underdogs, priced around 6.50-8.00 to win on the betting market. Yes, Belgium generated more in xG but Slovakia had a fine 10 goal attempts. Belgium had only one more shot on goal than Slovakia – 5-4 to be precise. In round 3, their last game, Slovakia played a 1-1 draw against Romania. Odds on the draw were only around 2.10 as it was enough for both teams to qualify.. However, Slovakia had more goal attempts, shot off goal, corner kicks, total passes, completed passes and attacks. They also generated more in xG. In the first half they pressed Romania hard and Duda scored in the 24th minute. A win would have brought them first place in the group – and a much easier draw in the Playoffs.. Marin scored the 1-1 goal (penalty) in the 37th minute. In the 2nd half both teams avoided (big) risks.. In their last game before the tournament Slovakia crushed a decent team, Wales, 4-0 at home. Let's not forget that Wales even played in the World Cup 2022.. It was a fine performance from the Slovaks as a whole! 

England beat Serbia 1-0 in round 1 but generated only 0.51 in xG. Serbia managed 0.31. Moreover, England had only three shots in goal and recorded just one more attack than the Serbs. England were priced around 1.50 to win this game.. After the game it was easy to say that these odds were hugely too low! Against Denmark it was a 1-1 draw and England did generate a little more in xG. However, again their odds of around 1.70 to win did not reflect the events on the pitch - not even close! Denmark had more goal attempts (16-11), shots on goal (7-4), corner kicks, total passes and completed passes. Both teams had 41 attacks in this rather low-tempo and uneventful match. In their last game before the tournament England lost to Iceland in London 0-1 despite being priced around 1.10-1.12 to win! It was a shameful performance from England. They had just one shot on goal and generated only 0.78 in xG. Their fans were, completely rightfully, very disappointed after the match... Lastly I want to mention that England have won just two of their last eight matches – and only one game by a margin of more than one goal..

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英格兰VS斯洛伐克

北京时间周一凌晨，英格兰队和斯洛伐克队将在盖尔森基兴维尔廷斯体育馆展开2024年欧洲杯1/8决赛的较量。当然，赌注是极高的，我预计这将是一场防守和紧张的比赛。这里的进球预期甚至比博彩公司的估计还要低一点。事实上，总进球数少于2.5个的概率是61%。足球迷和我们这些认真的、追求利润的投注者可以期待一场以本届锦标赛的标准来看质量相当平庸的比赛。最重要的是，我们有一个很好的投注机会，可以在这个大型锦标赛上获得更多的利润。事实上，在发布这篇分析时，我们已经赢得了这次锦标赛的最后五个选择!我已经预演了2024年欧洲杯的另一场比赛，并将在周日晚些时候发布更多的比赛预告!

即使是最大的博彩公司在本届世界杯上的赔率也出人意料地出现了许多错误，比2021年因新冠疫情危机而举行的2020年欧洲杯还要多。尽管在很多比赛中表现不佳，英格兰队还是一路杀入了决赛。但他们在点球大战中以1比2不敌意大利。在半决赛对阵丹麦的比赛中，他们显然是夺冠热门，但需要加时赛才能出线。我还想强调的是，他们有他们的忠实和响亮的(国内)球迷的支持。我想说的是，英格兰队在2024年欧洲杯的水平上只是略有下降，但他们肯定比2022年卡塔尔世界杯更糟糕。他们在季后赛中被最终入围决赛的法国队击败，但在球场上的表现只是略逊一筹，最终以1比2输掉了比赛。在2024年欧洲杯预选赛C组，他们发挥出色，以20分的优异成绩赢得小组第一。然而，他们的期望值(xPTS)略低。意大利排名第二，乌克兰排名第三。我们刚刚目睹了意大利对瑞士的糟糕表现，在创造了非常少的预期进球(xG)后，他们以0比2输掉了比赛。乌克兰未能晋级季后赛。我的观点是，事实上，英格兰在小组赛中并没有遇到很强的对手。我相信在资格赛中取得的优异成绩甚至影响了这里的胜算。此外，英超联赛是这个星球上最好的联赛，在媒体报道、电视观看人数和投注金额方面也是最受欢迎的。这可能是英国在博彩市场上经常被高估的一个原因，因为足球迷和娱乐投注者熟悉英国球员，因此高估了他们——以及英国国家队。此外，博彩在英格兰非常受欢迎，因为这个国家有相当多的人口，英格兰在国外也有很多球迷，博彩公司“被迫”提供英格兰获胜的赔率，也是在障碍博彩中，甚至比他们基于概率估计的赔率还要低。事实上，博彩公司必须管理风险。

理论上，英格兰在这方面当然更胜一筹。他们有像贝灵汉这样的球员，他在上赛季欧冠冠军皇马表现出色。他们还有曼城的超级天才福登，英超2023-2024赛季最佳球员，阿森纳的球星萨卡和世界上最好的前锋之一哈里凯恩。他为德国豪门拜仁慕尼黑进了很多球。然而，到目前为止，这四名球员在三场比赛中都表现得很沮丧，尤其是对斯洛文尼亚的比赛。贝灵汉的表现非常令人失望，但主要的问题是英格兰踢得太慢，防守太紧。因此，英格兰队无法从这些超级球星的个人技术中获益!然而，英格兰是一支不平衡的球队，这从来都不是一件好事。他们的守门员皮克福德在这个级别的比赛中只是一个普通的守门员。他效力于埃弗顿，一支低于平均水平的英超球队。与其他大国相比，英格兰的防守是几十年来最差的!即使是曼联的哈里·马奎尔也会对英格兰队有很大的帮助，尽管他的行为不稳定，网上流传着许多嘲笑他的表情包和笑话。只有曼城的凯尔·沃克是精英球员。例如Trippier, Guehi和Stones就远非如此!英格兰队主教练加雷斯·索斯盖特在比赛开始前就受到了足球媒体的严厉批评，而且由于英格兰队令人失望的表现，批评变得越来越强烈。还有传言说英格兰队的更衣室里气氛紧张。他们现在的压力一定很大。事实上，在比赛开始之前，几乎所有的博彩公司都认为他们是最大的热门。

索斯盖特的风格

游戏太过“悲观”和防御性。就战术技巧而言，我不相信他——尤其是作为一个领导者!大多数球迷和投注者可能会同意我的观点。似乎没有人真正理解他的战术。是的，当然有可能他会告诉他的球员在对阵斯洛伐克的比赛中踢得更积极——控制风险。英格兰有很大的进步潜力，当然，我在我的概率估计中考虑到了这一点。如果英格兰队以4比0获胜，这不会是一个巨大的冲击，但这是非常不可能的。快速进球可以让他们放松。然而，在比赛中途彻底改变比赛风格是非常困难的，没有任何迹象表明索斯盖特愿意做出重大改变。

英格兰队在国际足联的排名中排名第五，但即使在他们最好的情况下，他们也不是世界上最好的五支球队之一——不仅考虑到最好的11名首发球员，而且考虑到最好的替补球员。根据他们在这次比赛中的表现——以及比赛前的友谊赛——他们甚至都进不了12强!然而，如前所述，我并没有根据他们最近的表现来计算概率估计!是的，他们在比赛的各个方面都明显领先斯洛伐克。他们有61%的机会在90分钟的比赛中获胜。然而，他们在博彩市场上的赔率只有1.40左右。当然，我们会选择斯洛伐克+1.5个进球障碍的选项。赔率约为1.65，再次获胜的几率为67%。如果英格兰取得领先，他们的主要目标可能是保持领先，而不是冒险进更多的球。斯洛伐克在最近的很多比赛中都很活跃，但在这里他们的防守可能会很强硬，甚至有时11人全攻。我不相信他们会改变他们的战术，即使他们最终落后一球。然而，在下半场的首轮比赛中，当英格兰1-0领先时，塞尔维亚迫使英格兰进行防守。事实上，很难说斯洛伐克人在不同的情况下会如何发挥(得分)。我们必须记住，塞尔维亚拥有比斯洛伐克更有技术和身体更强壮的球员。塞尔维亚和斯洛伐克的整体水平大致相同。

斯洛伐克在国际足联的排名是第45位，但这个排名太低了。39-40是更准确的估计。在2024年欧洲杯预选赛中，他们只输给了强队葡萄牙，并以22分的优异成绩排名第二!他们在J组的10场比赛中赢了7场!在最近的六场比赛中，他们只输了一场——在本届杯赛的第二轮输给了乌克兰。1-2是最终比分，但从预期进球的角度来看，这场比赛是非常平衡的。两队的射门次数和尝试次数相同。斯洛伐克有54%的控球率，更多的传球，完成的传球和进攻。这场比赛很容易就会输掉。博彩公司给斯洛伐克开出的胜率是3.40-3.60。这是他们被庄家低估的又一个例子!斯洛伐克击败了国际足联排名第三的比利时队，在博彩市场上的胜率在6.50-8.00左右。是的，比利时在上个赛季创造了更多的机会，但斯洛伐克有10次进球尝试。准确地说，比利时只比斯洛伐克多一次射门，比分是5比4。在第三轮，也就是他们的最后一场比赛中，斯洛伐克1-1战平罗马尼亚。平局的赔率只有2.10左右，因为两支球队都能出线。然而，斯洛伐克有更多的进球尝试，射门，角球，总传球，完成传球和进攻。他们在xG中也产生了更多。上半场他们对罗马尼亚施压，杜达在第24分钟进球。一场胜利会让他们获得小组第一的位置——在季后赛中更容易打成平手。马林在第37分钟打进了1比1的进球(点球)。在下半场，两队都避免了(大)风险。在比赛前的最后一场比赛中，斯洛伐克在主场以4比0击败了一支不错的球队——威尔士。别忘了威尔士还参加了2022年世界杯…这是整个斯洛伐克人的一场精彩的比赛!

英格兰队在第一轮以1比0击败塞尔维亚队，但在上一场比赛中只产生了0.51个进球。塞尔维亚获得0.31分。此外，英格兰队只有3次射门，而且只比塞尔维亚队多一次进攻。英格兰队赢得这场比赛的价格在1.5英镑左右。比赛结束后，很容易说这些几率太低了!与丹麦的比赛是1比1战平，英格兰队在上一场比赛中确实创造了更多的机会。然而，他们的赔率约为1.70，这并没有反映出球场上的情况——甚至差得很远!

丹麦队的进球次数(16-11次)、射正次数(7-4次)、角球次数、总传球次数和完成传球次数都更多。在这场节奏缓慢、平淡无奇的比赛中，两支球队都有41次进攻。在比赛前的最后一场比赛中，英格兰队在伦敦0-1输给了冰岛队，尽管他们的胜率在1.10-1.12左右!这是英格兰队可耻的表现。他们只有一次射门，射门得分只有0.78。他们的球迷完全有理由在赛后感到非常失望。最后我想提一下，英格兰队在最近的八场比赛中只赢了两场，而且只有一场比赛领先一球以上。