Switzerland vs Italy

Switzerland and Italy lock horns in this EURO 2024 Playoffs 1/8-finals battle at Olympiastadion in Berlin were early Sunday morning Beijing time. Football fans and us serious, profit-hungry bettors can expect a match of better than average quality by this tournament's standards here. However, neither of the two teams are among the top-5 favourites to win the tournament – in my opinion or the bookmakers'. Yes, Italy are the reigning European champions as they beat England in the final at Wembley Stadium in 2021. The EURO 2020 was played a year behind schedule because of the Covid-19. I believe that many recreational bettors and bookies still give this win too much emphasis. However, three years is a long time in football and Italy have declined significantly since 2021! They even failed to make it to the World Cup in Qatar in 2022. Let's also remember that in terms of expected goals (xG) and expected goals allowed (xGA) Italy were not the best team in the EURO 2020, Spain were. Switzerland beat France, the reigning World Champions at the time, in the EURO 2024. Their level has dropped since then, but only very marginally. In the last World Cup they qualified for the Playoffs but lost to a very strong team, Portugal, as pretty clear underdogs on the betting market. The Swiss very often play better than the list of players would suggest. This has been the case in this tournament as well! I have slightly raised their power rating from the in-depth preseason analysis. In this tournament this rating reflects the teams' pure class not only with the best possible starting eleven but also taking account the substitutes and (match) schedule. Switzerland have had one more day than Italy to rest and prepare for this match and whilst this is not among the most important factors it is still something we have to give enough emphasis..

Italy are in 10th place in the FIFA Ranking but this is too high 13-14th would be a more accurate place for them at the moment. Switzerland, on the other hand, are in 19th place which is more or less correct in my expert opinion! Switzerland have been in fine form recently – avoiding defeat in seven of their last games. Moreover, they have lost just one of their most recent 17 games! This loss came last year against Romania on the road. The Swiss recorded more shots off goal, goal attempts and xG - 1.03-0.69 - in this match. In their last game the Swiss faced Germany as big underdogs – priced around 7.00 to win on the betting market. They performed well and were active on the pitch - even at times pressing the German defence in a well-structured way. The Swiss were very close to winning the game! Indeed, N. Fullkrug scored the 1-1 goal in the 90th+2 minute. Both teams had three shots on goal but the German did generate more in xG though. In round 2 the Swiss were not at their best and it was a 1-1 draw against Scotland. The Swiss did generate more in xG though – 1.13-0.81 to be precise. In the opening round Switzerland were excellent, especially offensively. They had many more attacks, shots on goal, corner kicks, total passes, completed passes, attacks and dangerous attacks. The xG numbers were 2.66-1.16 in the Swiss' favour! 

Italy were not great in the Qualification Group C – taking only 14 points – the same number as Ukraine managed to grab.. England easily won the group.  Ukraine failed to qualify for the Playoffs in the EURO 2024. In the opening round Italy beat the worst team in this tournament, Albania, 2-1 and deserved to win - but failed to really impress me as a whole. However, Italy generated only 1.55 in xG. Italy were priced around 1.35 to win the game. In round 2 Spain dominated Italy, despite winning only 1-0. Italy managed only one shot on target -Spain managed eight! Moreover, Spain had 20 goal attempts. The xG numbers were very clear in Spain's favour, 2.11-0.22 to be precise. In their last game Italy played a balanced game against Croatia as favourites on the betting market. It was a 1-1 draw in the end and Italy's Zaccagni scored the 1-1 goal in the 90+8th minute! The goal was assisted by one of Italy's most important players, R. Calafiori. He is out against Switzerland due to too many yellow cards which hurts Italy's chances significantly! Switzerland will be without S. Widmer but he can be replaced pretty easily.. I expect the Swiss to be pretty active, pressing Italy's defence in a smart, organized way here -  Italy will surely dislike this! Italy do not have many fast players which means that they are not likely to get many dangerous counter attacks. The goal expectancy is low but the bookies have also realized this.. The draw is even a little more probable than the bookies seem to estimate at the time of posting this analysis. To sum up, with the expected lineups Italy are the favourites, but only very narrow - based on my sophisticated, strongly data-based analysis! The biggest bookmakers with the largest stake limits offer Italy odds of around 2.40 to win in 90 minutes of play and this is too low! We will go for even more profit with the Switzerland +0.5 goals handicap option!

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瑞士vs意大利

北京时间周日凌晨，瑞士和意大利在柏林奥林匹亚球场展开了2024年欧洲杯季后赛1/8决赛的激战。足球迷和我们这些认真的、追求利润的投注者可以期待一场以本届锦标赛的标准来看比平均水平更好的比赛。然而，在我和博彩公司看来，这两支球队都不在夺冠热门前五名之列。是的，意大利是卫冕欧洲冠军，他们在2021年温布利体育场的决赛中击败了英格兰。由于新冠肺炎疫情，2020年欧洲杯比原计划推迟了一年。我相信许多娱乐投注者和博彩公司仍然过于强调这场胜利。然而，3年在足球界是很长的一段时间，自2021年以来，意大利的球员数量大幅下降!他们甚至没能进入2022年的卡塔尔世界杯。我们还要记住，在预期进球数(xG)和预期失球数(xGA)方面，意大利并不是2020年欧洲杯上最好的球队，西班牙才是。在2024年欧洲杯上，瑞士击败了当时的世界冠军法国队。自那以后，它们的水平有所下降，但幅度很小。在上一届世界杯上，他们获得了进入季后赛的资格，但输给了一支非常强大的球队——葡萄牙队，在博彩市场上，葡萄牙队显然处于劣势。瑞士人经常比名单上的球员打得更好。这次比赛也是如此!根据季前赛的深入分析，我略微提高了他们的能量评级。在这次比赛中，这个排名不仅反映了球队的纯粹等级，而且还考虑了替补和(比赛)时间表。瑞士队比意大利队多了一天的休息时间来准备这场比赛，虽然这不是最重要的因素之一，但我们仍然需要给予足够的重视。

意大利在国际足联排名中排名第十，但这个排名太高了，目前13-14对他们来说是更准确的位置。另一方面，瑞士排在第19位，这在我的专家意见中或多或少是正确的!瑞士队最近状态很好，在最近的比赛中有7场没有失利。此外，他们最近的17场比赛只输了一场!这种失利发生在去年客场对阵罗马尼亚时。在本场比赛中，瑞士队的射门次数、射门次数和射门得分(1.03-0.69)都有所增加。在他们的上一场比赛中，瑞士队面对的是德国队，他们是大输家，在博彩市场上的胜率约为7.00。他们表现得很好，在球场上很活跃，甚至有时会以一种结构良好的方式压迫德国的防线。瑞士队差一点就赢得比赛了!事实上，富勒克鲁格在第90 +2分钟打进了1-1的进球。两支球队都有三次射门，但德国人在xG创造了更多的机会。在第二轮比赛中，瑞士队表现不佳，1-1战平了苏格兰队。瑞士人在xG上的收入确实更多——准确地说是1.13-0.81。在首轮比赛中，瑞士队表现出色，尤其是在进攻端。他们有更多的进攻，射门，角球，总传球，完成传球，进攻和危险的进攻。xG值是2.66-1.16，瑞士人占上风!

意大利在预选赛C组表现不佳，只拿了14分，和乌克兰拿到的一样多。英格兰轻松赢得小组头名。乌克兰未能进入2024年欧洲杯的季后赛。在首场比赛中，意大利队以2-1击败了本届杯赛中表现最差的球队阿尔巴尼亚队，他们理应获胜，但整体上没能给我留下深刻印象。然而，意大利在2015年的收入仅为1.55美元。意大利队赢得比赛的价格在1.35左右。在第二轮比赛中，西班牙队以1比0战胜了意大利队。意大利只射正了1次，而西班牙射正了8次!此外，西班牙队有20次射门机会。xG数据非常明显对西班牙有利，准确地说是2.11-0.22。在上一场比赛中，意大利队与克罗地亚队打成平手，成为博彩市场上的夺冠热门。最后双方1-1战平，意大利的扎卡尼在90+8分钟打进了1-1的进球!这个进球是由意大利最重要的球员之一卡拉菲奥里(R. Calafiori)助攻的。他在对阵瑞士的比赛中因为黄牌太多而出局，这大大损害了意大利的机会!瑞士将失去威德默，但他很容易被取代。我预计瑞士人会非常积极，以一种聪明而有组织的方式压迫意大利的防线——意大利肯定不喜欢这样!意大利没有很多速度快的球员，这意味着他们不太可能得到很多危险的反击。进球预期很低，但博彩公司也意识到了这一点。平局的可能性甚至比赌徒在t时估计的还要大一点

发布这篇分析的时间。综上所述，意大利队的预期阵容是最受欢迎的，但只是非常有限的——基于我复杂的、强有力的数据分析!最大的博彩公司拥有最大的赌注限制，为意大利提供在90分钟内获胜的赔率约为2.40，这太低了!我们将通过瑞士+0.5个进球的障碍选项获得更多利润!