Tromso IL VS Molde

Tromso and Molde lock horns in this Norwegian Eliteserien round 12 battle at Romssa Arena early Saturday morning Beijing time. A match of slightly better than average quality by this league's standards is on the cards here. The level of this league is pretty mediocre by European standards but the very best  Norwegian teams, including Molde, can do quite well in UEFA's club competitions! Most importantly, us serious, profit-hungry bettors have yet another very lucrative betting opportunity here! There is a significant difference in class between the two teams! Let's take a look at some relevant numbers first: According to a well-known and respected German website, Transfermarkt.com, Molde are the bigger team here! Indeed, their squad has an estimated market value of some 27 million euros which is high by the Eliteserien standards but is still too low! Some 31-32 million would be a more accurate number. The Tromso squad, on the other hand, is valued at a total of about 15 million which is too high! Four of their players are overvalued. Molde are the (dominant) champions from 2022 and are a team with vast financial resources and a great head coach in terms of both tactical abilities and as a leader! Last season they were both disappointing and unlucky, ending up in 5th place with "only" 51 points in their pocket. However, their number of xPTS was 59.99. Molde did, however, play in the UEFA Europa League group stage, winning two games. Their score difference was 12:12. They did not qualify for the Playoffs and were "relegated" to the Conference League where they swept past Legia, a dangerous Polish team, 6-2 on aggregate! Those were excellent performances! Molde were eventually beaten by a big Belgian team with very talented players, Club Brugge, as very clear underdogs but won the 1st leg 2-1 at home. 

In the Champions League qualification last season Molde challenged a very big Turkish team, Galatasaray, well despite eventually losing. Gala are the new Turkish champions from 2023-2024. In Turkey Molde, the big underdogs, were leading late into the second half 1-0 and played well but Gala eventually managed to score twice, boosted by their extremely loud and demanding fans. I want to mention that Gala even went on to beat Manchester United away from home in the Champions League group stage! I am mentioning this to highlight Molde's potential, winning mentality and pure class! They currently occupy the 4th place in the standings with a fine 21 points in their pocket. Their number of xPTS is 24.45. Their offense has huge firepower and have scored 25 goals, the highest number – together with Bodo/Glimt – in this league! They have various offensive strategies/ formations – also including letting the opponent have a pretty high ball possession % and relying on fast counter attacks themselves. Tromso often try to be a bit too active and offensive at home and this might turn out to be costly for them as the Molde players have so much more skill and speed than the hosts! The Molde defence has not been quite as good as I would have expected in my in-depth preseason analysis but can improve significantly in this area of the game. They have conceded 16 goals but their number of expected goals allowed (xGA) is only 12.46.

Tromso were very lucky in terms of xPTS last season and have declined significantly - even more than I would have predicted -  this season. The bookies have failed to fully realize this and keep overvaluing Tromso! Odds of around 2.15-2.20 on the Molde win are widely available on the betting market and this is way too high! Based on my in-depth, strongly data-based expert analysis – with the expected lineups - Molde have a 54.50% chance of winning. Tromso do not have very good home fans – by Norwegian standards. Moreover, Molde have won seven of their last nine away games – what a fine record! Tromso have a pathetic 10 points to their account - just one more than Sandefjord, the rock-bottom team! The hosts are currently in 14th in this league with a total of 16 clubs. Yes, they can improve a little but this will probably take time and the bookies seemingly give this potential way too much emphasis! In their last competitive game the hosts lost to Lillestrom 1-2 at home as clear favourites – priced around 2.00 to win by the bookies at the time of kickoff. They generated only 0.43 in expected goals (xG). Before this they beat Fredrikstad, a newly promoted team, 3-0 at home as clear favourites on the betting market. Yes, they deserved to win but the final score is undoubtedly very misleading. The xG numbers were 1.55-0.62. 

Molde beat Odd 2-0 at home in their last game, it was a friendly match though. Before this it was a 2-2 draw at home against Viking, a dangerous team, currently in 5th place. Molde recorded more goal attempts (10-5), shots on goal (5-2), shots off target, corner kicks (7-2), total passes, completed passes, attacks (127-68) and dangerous attacks. They were not at their best but would still have deserved to win! In round 10 Molde were great, beating Brann 3-1 on the road. They were priced around 4.20 to win – yet another example of the bookies underestimating this fine team with a lot of potential! In terms of pure class Molde are definitely the second-best team in this league, behind Bodo/Glimt. The xG numbers against Brann were 2.18-1.03 in Molde's favour! In round 9 Molde lost to Sarpsborg 2-4 at home but the final score is massively misleading! Molde generated much more in xG than the visitors who had a stunning amount of luck on their side in this game.. This was Molde's worst performance for ages and I will not react to it too much.. However, I believe this defeat still affects the odds in the match against Tromso.. Let's also not forget that Sarpsborg played above their normal level in this game.

该文章通过有道机器翻译，仅供参考:

特罗姆瑟VS莫尔德

北京时间周六凌晨，特罗姆瑟和莫尔德将在挪威精英队第12轮比赛中在罗姆萨竞技场进行较量。按照联盟的标准，一场比平均水平稍好一点的比赛是有可能的。以欧洲的标准来看，这个联赛的水平相当平庸，但包括莫尔德在内的最优秀的挪威球队可以在欧足联的俱乐部比赛中表现出色!最重要的是，我们这些认真的、渴望利润的赌徒在这里又有了一个非常有利可图的赌博机会!这两支队伍在班级上有很大的差别!让我们先来看一些相关数据:根据德国知名网站Transfermarkt.com的数据，莫尔德是这里更大的球队!事实上，这支球队的市场价值估计在2700万欧元左右，以精英队的标准来看，这已经很高了，但仍然太低了!更准确的数字是3100万至3200万。另一方面，特罗姆瑟队的总价约为1500万欧元，这太高了!他们的四名球员被高估了。莫尔德是2022年的冠军，是一支财力雄厚的球队，在战术能力和领导能力方面都是一位伟大的主教练!上个赛季，他们既令人失望又不走运，最终以51分的成绩排在第五名。而xPTS数为59.99个。不过，莫尔德还是参加了欧联杯小组赛，赢了两场。他们的比分差是12:12。他们没有资格进入季后赛，被“降级”到联盟联赛，在那里他们以总比分6-2横扫了一支危险的波兰球队莱吉亚!表演太棒了!莫尔德最终被一支拥有非常有天赋球员的比利时强队布鲁日俱乐部击败，这支球队显然处于劣势，但他们在主场以2比1获胜。

在上个赛季的欧冠资格赛中，莫尔德挑战了一支非常强大的土耳其球队加拉塔萨雷，尽管最终失败了。Gala是土耳其2023-2024赛季的新冠军。在土耳其的比赛中，处于劣势的莫尔德队在下半场最后时刻以1-0领先，表现出色，但加拉最终在他们极其喧闹和要求很高的球迷的鼓舞下梅开二度。我想提一下，加拉甚至在欧冠小组赛中客场击败了曼联!我提到这一点是为了突出莫尔德的潜力，必胜的心态和纯粹的阶级!他们目前在积分榜上排名第四，拿到了21分。他们的xPTS数量是24.45。他们的进攻火力强大，已经进了25个球，加上博多和格里姆特，是联盟中进球最多的!他们有各种各样的进攻策略和阵型，包括让对手有很高的控球率和依靠自己的快速反击。特罗姆瑟经常在主场表现得过于活跃和进攻，这可能会让他们付出代价，因为莫尔德球员的技术和速度都比主队高得多!莫尔德的防守并不像我在季前赛的深入分析中所期望的那样好，但在这方面可以有很大的提高。他们丢了16个球，但他们的预期失球数(xGA)只有12.46个。

上赛季特罗姆瑟在xPTS方面非常幸运，而本赛季的下降幅度甚至比我预期的还要大。博彩公司没有充分认识到这一点，一直高估特罗姆瑟的价值!在投注市场上，莫尔德获胜的赔率约为2.15-2.20，这太高了!根据我深入的、强有力的基于数据的专家分析——以及预期的阵容——莫尔德有54.50%的获胜机会。以挪威的标准来看，特罗姆瑟没有很好的主场球迷。此外，莫尔德在最近的9场客场比赛中赢了7场，这是一个多么好的记录啊!特罗姆瑟只有可怜的10分，只比垫底的桑德福德多1分!东道主目前在该联赛中排名第14位，共有16家俱乐部。是的，他们可以提高一点，但这可能需要时间，而且博彩公司似乎过于强调这种潜力!在上一场正式比赛中，东道主在主场1-2不敌利勒斯特罗姆，他们显然是夺冠热门——开球时博彩公司开出的胜率约为2.00英镑。他们只产生了0.43个预期目标(xG)。在此之前，他们在主场以3比0击败了新进球队腓特烈斯塔德，成为博彩市场上最受欢迎的球队。是的，他们理应获胜，但最终的比分无疑是非常误导人的。xG值为1.55 ~ 0.62。

莫尔德在他们的上一场比赛中主场2-0击败了Odd，尽管那是一场友谊赛。更加积极

我们在主场2比2战平了维京队，这是一支危险的球队，目前排名第五。莫尔德的进球次数(10胜5负)、射正次数(5胜2负)、射偏次数(7胜2负)、角球次数(7胜2负)、总传球次数、完成传球次数、进攻次数(127胜68负)和危险进攻次数更多。他们没有达到最佳状态，但仍然应该获胜!在第10轮，莫尔德表现出色，在客场3-1击败了布兰恩。他们的胜率约为4.20美元，这是另一个博彩公司低估这支有很大潜力的优秀球队的例子!从纯粹的等级来看，莫尔德绝对是联盟中第二好的球队，仅次于博多和格里姆特。对布兰恩的xG数据是2.18-1.03，莫尔德占上风!在第9轮，莫尔德主场以2-4不敌萨尔普斯堡，但最后的比分是巨大的误导!莫尔德在xG上比客队创造了更多的机会，客队在这场比赛中拥有惊人的运气。这是莫尔德多年来最糟糕的表现，我不会对此有太多反应。然而，我相信这场失利仍然会影响到对阵特罗姆瑟的比赛。我们也不要忘记萨尔普斯堡在这场比赛中的表现超出了他们的正常水平。