Brann VS Stromsgodset

Brann welcome Stromsgodset for this Norwegian Eliteserien round 12 battle at Brann Stadion in Bergen very early Saturday morning Beijing time. A match of slightly better than average quality by this league's standards is on the cards here. Most importantly, us serious, profit-hungry bettors have yet another very promising betting opportunity here! Brann are the better team here, there is no doubt about the fact that Brann are the better team here. They have an edge over Stromsgodset in all areas of the game. However, the difference in class between the two teams is much smaller than the bookies seem to believe.. The biggest bookies with the largest stake limits offer odds of around 1.35 on the home win. With the expected lineups this is way too low in my expert opinion! Let's take a closer look..

Brann finished in second place last season with 61 points to their account. However, their number of expected points (xPTS) was "only" 56.45. Stromsgodset also played a pretty strong season ending up in 7th place. They grabbed 42 points. At the moment Brann are in second place with 27 points in the pocket. Their number of xPTS is 25.04. They have netted the ball a fine 22 times but their number of expected goals (xG) is lower – 20.11 to be precise. Their defence is pretty solid – they have conceded 13 goals. However, they can be vulnerable to fast counter attacks. Furthermore, sometimes Brann defenders give unnecessarily passes and take other risks near their own goal. Fast counter attacks is something Stromsgodset are pretty good at! I expect them to defend in an organized way - perhaps even with 10 men at times - here. As a result, the goal expectancy is lower than the bookies believe. The probability of under 2.5 total goals to be scored is 41.50%. The visitors' defence has been solid, not much worse than the hosts'. Stromsgodset have allowed only 15 goals. Their offense is somewhat limited – they have scored only 14 goals. They have lacked creativity and individual skill. However, their number of xG is 17.04 and can improve in this area of the game. They are in 6th place with a decent 17 points to their account. Odds of around 1.85 are widely available on the visitors +1.5 goals handicap. The chance of winning is 62%.

Let's not forget that Stromsgodset have won two of the last three games between the two teams – both with a margin of at least two goals! They last locked horns last December and Stromsgodset won 3-0 at home! They recorded many more goal attempts (8-4) and shots goal – 6-1. The xG numbers were 2.02-0.61. Stromsgodset were big underdogs in this game – priced over 4.00 to win by the bookies. According to a well-known German website, the hosts are the bigger team, but not by a very large margin. The visitors' players have an estimated total market value of about 11 million euros which is a bit too low. The Brann squad is valued at around 18 million but this is clearly too high. Three of the players are overvalued. Brann have two one of their last three competitive games - but not with a margin of more than one goal.. In their last match they beat HamKam, currently in 10th place with 13 points after 13 games, away from home 2-1 The visitors had 66% ball possession but both teams had the same number of goal attempts (17) and corner kicks! HamKam even had one more shot on goal – 5-4. Before this Brann were priced around 1.20 to win by the bookies against Kristiansund and won 2-1. The xG numbers were 1.03-0.55. Brann's offense lacked speed. creativity and passing accuracy at critical moments. In round 10 Brann lost to Molde 1-3 at home as clear favourites – priced around 1.75 to win. It was a disappointing performance as a whole and the hosts' defensive vulnerabilities were exposed The xG numbers were 2.18-1.03 in Molde's favour. Stromsgodset have played well recently, taking two wins and a draw in their last three games. In their most recent match they were not at their best and it was a 1-1 draw against Odd at home. The xG numbers were 1.12-1.10. In round 10 Stromsgodset were priced around 3.00 to win but defeated Sarpsborg on the road 3-1. They generated more than the hosts in xG and deserved the three points! Before this Stromsgodset beat Haugesund 2-0 at home. However, the final score flatters the hosts to some extent.. I want to mention that despite the defeat Haugesund played better than usual in this match.

Brann VS Stromsgodset

北京时间周六凌晨，在卑尔根的布兰恩体育场，布兰恩欢迎斯特罗姆戈德塞特参加挪威精英联赛第12轮的比赛。按照联盟的标准，一场比平均水平稍好一点的比赛是有可能的。最重要的是，我们这些认真的、渴望利润的投注者在这里又有了一个非常有前途的投注机会!毫无疑问，Brann在这里是一支更好的球队。他们在游戏的所有领域都比Stromsgodset有优势。然而，两队之间的等级差距比博彩公司认为的要小得多。拥有最大赌注限制的最大博彩公司对主场获胜的赔率约为1.35。在我的专家看来，预期的阵容太低了!让我们仔细看看……

布兰恩上赛季以61分排名第二。然而，他们的期望值(xPTS)“只有”56.45。Stromsgodset也打出了一个非常强劲的赛季，最终排名第七。他们拿到了42分。目前，布兰恩以27分排名第二。他们的xPTS数是25.04。他们有22次进球，但他们的预期进球数(xG)更低，准确地说是20.11个。他们的防守相当稳固，他们已经丢了13个球。然而，他们可能很容易受到快速反击。此外，有时布兰恩的后卫会给对方不必要的传球，并在自己的球门附近冒其他风险。快速反击是Stromsgodset非常擅长的!我希望他们能以一种有组织的方式防守——有时甚至是10个人——在这里。因此，预期进球比博彩公司认为的要低。总进球数少于2.5个的概率为41.50%。客队的防守很稳固，不比主队差多少。斯特罗姆塞特只丢了15个球。他们的进攻有些有限，他们只进了14个球。他们缺乏创造力和个人技巧。然而，他们的xG值是17.04，在这方面还可以提高。他们以17分的成绩排在第6位。在客队+1.5个进球障碍的情况下，赔率约为1.85。获胜的几率是62%。

别忘了，斯特罗姆戈德塞特在两队最近的三场比赛中赢了两场，而且两场比赛都至少领先两球!他们上一次交锋是在去年12月，斯特罗姆塞特主场3-0获胜!他们有更多的射门次数(8-4)和射门次数(6-1)。xG值为2.02 ~ 0.61。在这场比赛中，Stromsgodset队是大输家——博彩公司开出的胜率超过4.00。据德国一家知名网站称，东道主的规模更大，但差距并不大。客队球员的总市值估计约为1100万欧元，这有点太低了。布兰恩队的估价在1800万左右，但这显然太高了。有三个球员被高估了。在最近的三场比赛中，布兰恩有两个进球，但没有超过一个进球的差距。在上一场比赛中，他们客场2-1击败了13场比赛积13分排名第10的汉姆卡姆，客队的控球率为66%，但两队的射门次数(17次)和角球次数相同!哈姆卡姆甚至还有一次射门，比分是5:4。在此之前，布兰恩被博彩公司定价在1.20左右赢得克里斯蒂安桑德，并以2:1获胜。xG值为1.03 ~ 0.55。布兰恩的进攻缺乏速度。关键时刻的创造力和传球准确性。在第十轮比赛中，布兰恩在主场以1-3不敌莫尔德，他们的夺冠概率在1.75英镑左右。从整体上看，这是一场令人失望的比赛，东道主的防守漏洞暴露无遗。莫尔德的xG值为2.18-1.03。斯特罗姆戈德塞特最近打得很好，在最近三场比赛中取得了两胜一平。在他们最近的一场比赛中，他们并没有处于最佳状态，他们在主场1-1战平了奥德。xG值为1.12 ~ 1.10。在第10轮比赛中，斯特罗姆戈德塞特队的胜率被定在3.00左右，但他们在客场3-1击败了萨普斯堡队。他们在xG比东道主创造了更多的机会，理应得到三分!在此之前，斯特罗姆斯godset在主场以2-0击败豪格松。然而，最终的比分在某种程度上让东道主感到高兴。我想说的是，尽管输球了，豪格松在这场比赛中的表现比平时要好。