The most interesting Euro 2024 game on Thursday will happen between Spain and Italy. After the 1st round, Spain has 3 points and the 1st place while Italy is in the 2nd place with also 3 points. In this game, I predict that Italy won't lose.

Spain are the most possession-dominant team in this tournament despite holding under 50% possession against Croatia. That was mainly because they were up 3:0 inside the first 45 minutes, so naturally they played more passively in the second half to protect their lead. Like you saw against Croatia, Spain thrives in positive game states. Spain does have a pretty clear weakness that Italy can exploit. They are a bad transition defense and because they build out in a 2-3-5 when they lose the ball there is a lot of space out wide. Italy is one of the best teams in this tournament at attacking from out wide, so Spain may have trouble in that aspect.

Italy did a fantastic job at not only erasing Albania's lead quickly but controlling the match once they went ahead 2:1. They didn't allow Albania any more high-quality chances and in the end only conceded 0.46 xG. That is not a problem though because they are really good out of possession side. They have the versatility to press high in a man-to-man fashion or sit in a solid 5-3-2 defense block and they are elite at denying space through the middle. Spain has a clear weakness in defending in transition and wide areas. What Spalletti wants his team to do is create wide overloads and combinations for Italy.

Even though they kept a clean sheet, it's not like Spain were dominant defensively. They conceded well over two expected goals in total to a pretty bad transition team in Croatia. Italy being good and flexible out of possession sets them up well here against Spain. Italy have won the expected goals battle in all but one match under Spalletti and I think they shouldn't be this undervalued in what is a pretty even matchup.

周四最有趣的2024年欧洲杯比赛将在西班牙和意大利之间进行。第一轮结束后，西班牙积3分排名第一，意大利也积3分排名第二。在这场比赛中，我预测意大利不会输。

西班牙队是本届杯赛中控球率最高的球队，尽管对阵克罗地亚时，西班牙队的控球率低于50%。这主要是因为他们在前45分钟内以3:0领先，所以他们在下半场自然会打得更被动，以保持领先优势。就像你在对阵克罗地亚的比赛中看到的那样，西班牙队在积极的比赛状态下茁壮成长。西班牙确实有一个明显的弱点，意大利可以加以利用。他们是一个糟糕的过渡防守，因为他们建立了一个2-3-5的阵型，当他们失去球权时，他们在边路有很多空间。意大利是本届杯赛中最擅长从边路进攻的球队之一，所以西班牙在这方面可能会遇到麻烦。

意大利表现出色，不仅迅速消除了阿尔巴尼亚的领先优势，而且在2:1领先时控制了比赛。他们没有给阿尔巴尼亚更多的高质量机会，最终只丢了0.46个球。这不是问题，因为他们在控球方面做得很好。他们有多种多样的战术，可以在人盯人的方式下进行高位逼抢，也可以坐在5-3-2的防守区域内，而且他们是中路封堵空间的精英。西班牙在过渡防守和大范围防守上有明显的弱点。斯帕莱蒂想要他的球队做的是为意大利创造广泛的超载和组合。

尽管他们保持了零封，但这并不像西班牙在防守上占据统治地位。他们输给了克罗地亚一支糟糕的过渡队，总失球超过了预期的两个。意大利在控球上的出色和灵活让他们在对阵西班牙的比赛中表现出色。在斯帕莱蒂的带领下，意大利除了一场比赛外，所有比赛都赢得了预期的进球，我认为他们不应该在这样一场势均力敌的比赛中被低估。