In my opinion, Serbia has really good chances to win in today’s matchup.

Serbia has a good mental advantage before this game. Both teams played against each other in the 2022 UEFA Nations League. Serbia looked much better in both matches, they recorded 4 points against Slovenia, - won 6:3 in goals and 4:50 against 1.20 in expected goals scored. The difference between both teams was visible, and I expected a similar story today.

Serbia had an extremely hard opening match as they played against England (one of the biggest favorites to win the whole tournament). Serbia lost 0:1, but that was a close game: expected goals scored for England 0.52, for Serbia 0.18. Now this is a ‘must win’ game for Serbia and I believe they have all the required tools (especially in offense) to make big problems for Slovenia.

I don’t trust Slovenian defensive formation. Obviously, goalkeeper Oblak is top class, but 4 defenders: Janza (Gornik Zabrze), Bijol(Udinese), Drkusic (Sochi) & Karnicnik (Celje) are not convincing at all. In opening match Denmark scored one goal against them, but had 16 shots and 1.66 expected goals scored.

I believe Serbia is able to score more than one goal here. In 2024 Slovenia conceded goals against Armenia or Bulgaria. They conceded two goals against poor Malta.

More than one goal for Serbia and that should be simply enough to make 3 points.

在我看来，塞尔维亚在今天的比赛中有很好的获胜机会。

塞尔维亚在这场比赛前有很好的心理优势。两支球队在2022年的欧洲国家联赛中对阵。塞尔维亚在两场比赛中看起来都要好得多，他们在对阵斯洛文尼亚的比赛中拿到了4分，进球数以6:3取胜，预期进球数以4:50战胜1.20。两支球队之间的差异是显而易见的，我预计今天也会发生类似的事情。

塞尔维亚的首场比赛非常艰难，他们对阵的是英格兰队(最有希望赢得整个锦标赛的球队之一)。塞尔维亚0:1输球，但这是一场势均力敌的比赛:英格兰的预期进球数为0.52，塞尔维亚为0.18。现在这对塞尔维亚来说是一场“必须赢”的比赛，我相信他们拥有所有必要的工具(尤其是在进攻端)来给斯洛文尼亚制造大麻烦。

我不相信斯洛文尼亚的防守阵型。显然，门将奥布拉克是一流的，但4名后卫:扬扎(扎布热)、比约尔(乌迪内斯)、德库西奇(索契)和卡尼尼克(切列)根本没有说服力。在首场比赛中，丹麦攻入一球，但射门16次，预期进球1.66个。

我相信塞尔维亚在这里能进不止一个球。2024年，斯洛文尼亚在对阵亚美尼亚或保加利亚的比赛中失球。他们对可怜的马耳他丢了两个球。

塞尔维亚进了不止一个球，这应该足以让他们得到3分。