PROFIT from Iceland? $$$ 冰岛超 弗拉姆VSHK科帕沃格
2024-06-19

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外籍分析师

解读理由:

Fram Reykjavik VS HK Kopavogur


Fram and Kopavogur lock horns in this Besta Deild Karla round 10 battle at Laugardalsvöllur in Reykjavík early Wednesday morning Beijing time. The level of this league is very poor by European standards. A match of worse than average quality by this league's standards is expected here. Most importantly, football enthusiasts and us profit-hungry bettors have yet another very lucrative betting opportunity here! There is no doubt about the fact that the hosts are the much stronger team here. They have a clear edge over the visitors in all areas of the game. A lot has changed from last season when both teams took a total of 27 points – and played in the Relegation Group at the end of the season. I want to mention that Fram were very unlucky in terms of expected points (xPTS). At the moment fram are in 6th place with a decent 13 points to their account. Yes, their offense does lack some speed, individual skill and creativity compared to the top-3 teams. They have scored 12 goals but their number of expected goals (xG) is 16.32. Against the poor Kopavogur defence they should be able to generate at least 1.50 in expected goals (xG). Indeed, the visitors have allowed 17 goals. Fram have conceded only 12 goals, the same number as big top-3 teams Valur and Breidablik have allowed. Their defence has a fine structure and has no obvious weaknesses. Kopavogur's offense lacks basically everything to do well at this level! I would not be surprised if they were relegated to Division 1 at the end of the season. They have a pathetic seven points to their account!

Odds of around 1.65 on the Fram win are available on the betting market at the time of posting this analysis and we will eagerly place a bet on them! According to a well-known and respected German website, Transfermarkt.com, Fram are clearly the bigger team here. Their squad has an estimated market value of some 1.5 million euros. This is too low though. Some 2.1-2.3 million would be a more realistic number! At least three players are undervalued. The Kopavogur players are valued at a total of only some 800 000 euros. This is a very low number by this league's standards. With the expected lineups – taking the substantial home advantage into account – the hosts have a 66% chance of taking all three points. The visitors have been in abysmal form recently. Indeed, they have lost four games in a row – 3/4 by a margin of more than one goal. In their last match Kopavogur were outplayed by Bredablik. The visitors easily won 2-0 and recorded more goal attempts (18-6), shots on goal, shots off goal, attacks and dangerous attacks. Before this Kopavogur lost to the rock-bottom team, Fylkir, 1-3 on the road. Kopavogur managed only two shots on target. The hosts' number was five. What a lame performance it was as a whole! In round 7 Kopavogur were not terrible but lost to Valur at home 1-2 despite the visitors being far from their best level. Even so, Valur recorded many more shots on goal, shots off target, shots off goal, corner kicks (14-1), attacks and dangerous attacks. Fram have not been great recently either but the bookies have overreacted to their lame recent performances. We must understand that Fram have faced mainly much stronger teams than Kopavogur are recently. In their last game, an Icelandic Cup clash, Fram lost to KA Akureyri 0-3 on the road. Yes, the hosts deserved to win but the final score is very misleading. The hosts managed only two more dangerous attacks than Fram in this game. Fram played well below their normal level in this match. Before this Fram were very clear underdogs against Harnarfjordur away from home but took a 3-3 draw. They showed great fighting spirit, coming back from 0-3 in the last 30 minutes of the game! The hosts' B. Bodavarsson was sent off in the 79th minute when the score was 3-1.On the 26th of May Fram lost to a big team Breidablik 1-4 at home as clear underdogs. Yes, the visitors were the better team on the pitch but the game was much more balanced than the final score would reflect. The ball possession was 46-54% and the hosts recorded a pretty high 88 dangerous attacks. Breidablik's number was a bit higher though - 101 to be precise.



该文章通过有道机器翻译,仅供参考:

雷克雅未克VS香港Kopavogur


北京时间周三凌晨,弗拉姆和科帕沃古尔在Reykjavík举行的贝斯塔·德·卡尔拉第10轮比赛中进行了较量。按照欧洲的标准,这个联赛的水平很低。按照这个联赛的标准,这场比赛的质量将低于平均水平。最重要的是,足球爱好者和我们这些渴望利润的投注者在这里又有了一个非常有利可图的投注机会!毫无疑问,东道主在这里的实力要强大得多。他们在比赛的各个方面都明显胜过客队。与上赛季相比,现在已经发生了很大的变化,当时两支球队都拿到了27分,而且在赛季结束时还在保级组比赛。我想提到的是,就期望积分(xPTS)而言,Fram非常不走运。目前,法拉姆以13分的成绩排在第6位。是的,与前三名球队相比,他们的进攻确实缺乏速度、个人技术和创造力。他们打进了12球,但他们的预期进球数(xG)是16.32。面对可怜的科帕沃古尔防线,他们应该能够产生至少1.50个预期进球(xG)。事实上,客队已经丢了17个球。弗拉姆只丢了12个球,与排名前三的瓦卢尔和布雷达布里克的失球数相同。他们的防守结构很好,没有明显的弱点。科帕沃古尔的进攻基本上缺乏在这个水平上取得好成绩的一切!如果他们在赛季结束后降级到甲级,我不会感到惊讶。他们的账户只有可怜的七分!

在发布这篇分析的时候,在投注市场上,Fram获胜的赔率约为1.65,我们将热切地押注于他们!根据德国一家知名且受人尊敬的网站Transfermarkt.com,弗拉姆显然是这里更大的球队。这支球队的市值估计在150万欧元左右。但这太低了。210万到230万是更现实的数字!至少有三名球员被低估了。Kopavogur球员的总身价仅为80万欧元左右。以联盟的标准来看,这是一个很低的数字。考虑到主场的巨大优势,按照预期的阵容,东道主有66%的机会拿到全部三分。客人们最近心情不好。事实上,他们已经连续输了四场比赛——3/4的差距超过一个球。在上一场比赛中,科帕沃古尔被布雷达布利克击败。客队轻松地以2比0取胜,并记录了更多的进球次数(18比6)、射正、射偏、进攻和危险进攻。在此之前,Kopavogur客场1-3输给了排名垫底的费基尔队。科帕沃古尔只射正了两脚。东道主的号码是5。整个演出太差劲了!在第7轮比赛中,Kopavogur的表现并不糟糕,但在主场1-2不敌Valur,尽管客队的状态远未达到最佳水平。尽管如此,瓦卢尔还是记录了更多的正射、偏射、偏射、角球(14胜1负)、攻击和危险攻击。弗雷姆最近的表现也不太好,但博彩公司对他们最近的蹩脚表现反应过度了。我们必须明白,弗拉姆最近面对的主要是比科帕沃古尔强得多的球队。在上一场冰岛杯比赛中,弗拉姆客场0-3不敌阿库雷里。是的,东道主应该赢,但是最后的比分很容易误导人。东道主在这场比赛中只比弗拉姆多了两次危险的进攻。弗拉姆在这场比赛中的表现远远低于他们的正常水平。在此之前,弗拉姆在客场对阵哈纳夫霍杜尔的比赛中明显处于劣势,但最终以3-3战平。他们表现出了伟大的斗志,在比赛的最后30分钟从0-3逆转过来!主队的博达瓦松(B. Bodavarsson)在比分为3-1的第79分钟被红牌罚下。5月26日,弗拉姆在主场1-4不敌强队布莱达布里克,显然处于劣势。是的,客队在球场上表现得更好,但比赛比最终比分所反映的要平衡得多。控球率为46比54%,主队的88次危险进攻也相当高。不过Breidablik的数字要高一些——准确地说是101。

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