POLAND - NETHERLANDS
I have very small expectations for this Poland team. They have some interesting players, but several of them aren’t in the best form. Lewandowski, their main player, is confirmed to miss this game due to an injury. This is a big blow because they are also missing Juventus forward Arkadiusz Milik, who is the main striker alongside Lewandowski.
So they’ll be missing the two main attackers here, so I believe that their chances to score goals here are very limited, especially with a good defense lead by Virgil van Dijk in front.
They struggled to qualify, beating Wales in penalty kicks in the playoffs. Are a very defensive team who use to set up a defensive system without making a high pressure. Are using a 5 defenders line, where wingers Frankowski and Zalewski are the key are very offensive when Poland attack. Zielinski and Slisz are also important players in the midfield. However, I see very difficult for this Poland team to make a good EURO, because they have been also unlucky with the group stage, with difficult rivals.
On the other hand, Netherlands is also missing two key players - Frenkie de Jong and Koopmeiners, and I also don’t have big expectations on them for this tournament, but I see them favorites in this group to qualify as second, behind France. But won’t be easy as I see Austria pretty strong here and could surprise, so the victory against Poland is crucial.
However, as opposed to Poland, Netherlands have a much better squad with more quality and more capacity to make a good performance. Have a depth squad with good alternatives to replace those two players mentioned. Xavi Simons will be the key, but also Virgil van Dijk who arrives at this tournament in great form.
According to the recent performances I saw by Poland, their current squad and lineup for this fixture, and the kind of game expected, I expect them to generate very few chances here. Netherlands will dominate whilst Poland will use a defensive approach, being dominated and trying to generate some danger at counters. However, I expect Netherlands to be strong at the back and have good defenders in good form.
The key here will be to see Netherlands playing fast enough to generate chances and spaces in a defensive polish defensive line, and that’s why Xavi Simons and Gakpo will be the key. But Poland has not been defending well lately, conceding goals against weak teams, so I expect them to concede some goal here as well.
SLOVENIA - DENMARK
Slovenia is a very defensive team without big names in their squad, and for them qualifying to the EURO is already a big success.
Have some interesting names which could make a good tournament, such as midfielder Cerin, but overall have a weak squad lacking experience in this tournaments. The young striker Sesko is also one of their big hopes, especially because their key player Oblak didn’t have a good season with Atletico this season.
On the other hand, Denmark made a terrible World Cup so are hungry to make a better performance in this tournament. They are doing a generational change at the moment, but are doing well in my opinion combining some experienced players and other young talents like Hojlund who is coming in great form after making a good season in Manchester United and also playing well in recent friendlies with Norway.
They have plenty of experience not only with their clubs at the top level, also as a national team playing big tournaments.
I expect Denmark to fully dominate this fixture, having more than 60% possession. They are an offensive team and expect them to generate plenty of chances here. Should be able to win this fixture as they have much more experience and quality in their squad.
Both teams also played in the EURO Qualifiers where Slovenia drew 1:1 at home and Denmark won 2:1 in the second game. However, the Danish team dominated both games and deserved to win the first one with +60% possession, almost double of shots and 1.51 xG (and 0.59 xG for Slovenia), whilst in the second one they had 64% possession and Slovenia had only 1 shot in the whole game, scoring a goal although they had only 0,06 expected goals generated (whilst Denmark made 2.25 xG).
SERBIA - ENGLAND
Serbia is a team with good names but I don’t see them as a very solid team. Some of them are far from theri best level (Tadic), others are playing in the Arab football (Mitrovic, Milinkovic-Savic) and others had a bad season such as Kostic.
Their key player here will be Tadic, who is already 35yo and as said isn’t at their peak level. He isn’t playing in a top team in Europe (Fenerbahce) and was their most important player during the qualifiers, scoring 2 goals and giving 4 assists. Vlahovic should be the man to convert his assists, as he is probably the most in-form player in the Serbian team.
They are coming in poor form to this tournament. Finished below Hungary in the qualifiers and have won just 2 of their last 6 games, which were against Cyprus and Sweden. They were beaten by Russia, Austria, Belgium and drew against Bulgaria. Except Belgium, all of them are weak teams.
On the other hand, England is coming into this tournament as one of the main title contenders. Have one of the best squads in their recent history, with a squad full of quality and experience. Furthermore, they suffered a shocking defeat against Iceland in their last friendly so I’m sure they’ll play with more intensity here.
It’s true that they have a better attack than defense, and this could be a problem against top teams like France or Germany if they want to win this title, but against weak-average sides like Serbia should be able to beat them scoring 2-3 goals easily.
Although it won't be easy for England, they have plenty of alternatives and danger upfront to generate goals without needing to create too many chances. Bellingham, Foden or Harry Kane are among the best attackers in Europe at the moment and for me it looks very difficult for the weak serbian defense to stop them or keep them quiet.
If England plays a serious game, and I have no doubts about that after that last defeat against Iceland, should be able to score at least a couple of goals and win this fixture easily.
波兰-荷兰
我对这支波兰队的期望很低。他们有一些有趣的球员,但其中有几个人的状态不是最好的。他们的主力球员莱万多夫斯基已经确认将因伤缺席本场比赛。这是一个巨大的打击,因为他们也失去了尤文图斯前锋米利克,他是莱万多夫斯基的主力前锋。
所以他们将失去两名主要的攻击手,所以我相信他们在这里进球的机会非常有限,特别是在维吉尔·范迪克率领的优秀防守下。
在季后赛中,他们在点球大战中击败了威尔士队,勉强晋级。我们是一支非常注重防守的球队,他们习惯于在不施加高压的情况下建立防守体系。波兰队采用5后卫阵型,边锋弗兰科夫斯基和扎莱夫斯基是关键,他们在波兰队进攻时进攻性很强。齐林斯基和斯莱兹也是中场的重要球员。然而,我认为这支波兰队很难在欧洲杯上取得好成绩,因为他们在小组赛中也很不走运,面对的是难对付的对手。
另一方面,荷兰队也缺少了两名关键球员——德容和库梅纳斯,我对他们在本届比赛中的表现也不抱太大期望,但我认为他们在这个小组中排名第二,排在法国之后。但这并不容易,因为我认为奥地利在这里很强大,可能会令人惊讶,所以对波兰的胜利至关重要。
然而,与波兰队相比,荷兰队的实力更强,实力更强,有能力取得好成绩。有一个有深度的阵容,有很好的替代者来代替这两个球员。哈维·西蒙斯将是关键,但维吉尔·范迪克也将以出色的状态来到本届锦标赛。
根据我所看到的波兰队最近的表现,他们目前的阵容和这场比赛的阵容,以及比赛的预期,我预计他们在这里创造的机会很少。荷兰队将占据主导地位,而波兰队将采取防守方式,被对方控制,并试图在反击时制造一些危险。然而,我希望荷兰队在后防线上会很强大,并且拥有状态良好的后卫。
这里的关键是看到荷兰队踢得足够快,在防守的防线上创造机会和空间,这就是为什么哈维·西蒙斯和加普将是关键。但是波兰队最近防守不好,在面对弱队时丢了球,所以我预计他们在这里也会丢一些球。
斯洛文尼亚-丹麦
斯洛文尼亚是一支非常注重防守的球队,他们的阵容中没有大牌球员,对他们来说,晋级欧洲杯已经是一个巨大的成功。
有一些有趣的名字,可以使一个不错的比赛,如中场瑟林,但总的来说,有一个弱的阵容缺乏经验的比赛。年轻的前锋塞斯科也是他们最大的希望之一,特别是因为他们的关键球员奥布拉克本赛季在马竞的表现不佳。
另一方面,丹麦在世界杯上表现糟糕,所以他们渴望在本届比赛中表现更好。他们现在正在进行换人,但在我看来,他们做得很好,结合了一些经验丰富的球员和其他年轻的天才球员,比如霍伊隆德,他在曼联度过了一个不错的赛季,并且在最近与挪威的友谊赛中也表现出色。
他们不仅在顶级俱乐部有丰富的经验,在国家队也有参加大型赛事的经验。
我预计丹麦将完全控制这场比赛,拥有超过60%的控球率。他们是一支进攻型球队,希望他们能在这里创造更多的机会。应该能够赢得这场比赛,因为他们有更多的经验和实力。
两队还参加了欧洲杯预选赛,斯洛文尼亚主场1:1战平,丹麦在第二场比赛中2:1获胜。然而,丹麦队在两场比赛中都占据了主导地位,他们理应赢得第一场比赛,控球率为60%,射门次数几乎翻了一番,射门次数为1.51(斯洛文尼亚为0.59),而在第二场比赛中,他们控球率为64%,斯洛文尼亚全场只有1次射门,尽管他们只有0.06个预期进球(丹麦为2.25),但他们打进了一球。
塞尔维亚-英格兰
塞尔维亚是一支名声很好的球队,但我不认为他们是一支非常稳固的球队。他们中的一些人远没有达到他们的最佳水平(塔迪奇),另一些人在阿拉伯足球中踢球(米特罗维奇,米林科维奇-萨维奇),还有一些人有一个糟糕的赛季,比如科斯蒂奇。
他们的关键球员将是塔迪奇,他已经35岁了,正如所说的,还没有达到他们的巅峰水平。他没有效力于欧洲顶级球队(费内巴切),但他是预选赛中最重要的球员,打进2球
助攻4次。弗拉霍维奇应该是把助攻转化为助攻的人,因为他可能是塞尔维亚队状态最好的球员。他们在这次比赛中状态不佳。在预选赛中落后于匈牙利,在最近的6场比赛中只赢了2场,分别是对阵塞浦路斯和瑞典。他们先后被俄罗斯、奥地利、比利时击败,战平保加利亚。除了比利时,其他都是弱队。
另一方面,英格兰队作为主要的冠军争夺者之一进入本届锦标赛。这是他们最近历史上最好的阵容之一,拥有一支充满实力和经验的队伍。此外,他们在上一场友谊赛中惨败于冰岛,所以我相信他们在这里会踢得更激烈。
的确,他们的进攻比防守更好,如果他们想赢得冠军,这可能是面对法国或德国这样的顶级球队的一个问题,但面对像塞尔维亚这样的弱平均水平的球队应该能够轻松击败他们,打进2-3个球。
虽然这对英格兰来说并不容易,但他们有很多选择,而且在前场有很多危险,可以在不需要创造太多机会的情况下创造进球。贝灵汉、福登和哈里·凯恩都是目前欧洲最好的攻击手,在我看来,塞尔维亚薄弱的防线很难阻止他们或者让他们保持安静。
如果英格兰打一场严肃的比赛,在上次输给冰岛之后,我毫不怀疑,他们应该至少能进几个球,轻松赢得这场比赛。