Everton CD VS Universidad de Chile

Everton welcome U. De Chile for this Chilean Primera Division round 15 at Estadio Sausalito in Vina del Mar early Monday morning Beijing time. The level of this league is somewhat low by South American standards. However, football fans and us serious, profit-hungry bettors can expect a match of pretty good quality by this league's standards. Most importantly, we have yet another lucrative betting opportunity to make even more profit betting on this league. Last season Everton finished much better than U. De Chile. Indeed, Everton took 6th place with 45 points. U. De Chile ended up in 9th place. Yes, they have improved this season but have, as a result, become too hot on the betting market. They currently top the standings with 29 points in their pocket. However, their number of expected points (xPTS) is "only" 25.45. They have netted the ball 25 times which is a good – but not great – number. The hosts have scored 22 goals. U. De Chile have defended much better than I would have expected in my in-depth preseason analysis. Yes, their defensive structure is good but many of their defensive players have played above their normal level so far this season. They have conceded 12 goals but their number of expected goals allowed (xGA) is 15.03. Yes, the visitors' defence is better than that of the hosts but not by a wide margin, after all. Everton have allowed 22 goals. They are in 8th place with 21 points and have been a slight disappointment to me as a whole. However, I give their potential for improvement quite a lot of emphasis. The bookies seemingly rate the visitors as the much better team here in terms of pure class as they offer odds of only around 2.25 on the away win. Based on my strongly data-based analysis this is incorrect. Taking the substantial home advantage into account I see the hosts as very marginal favourites here! Everton have lost only one of the six games at Estadio Sausalito in front of their loud fans. We will take the Everton +0.5 goals handicap option here.

The hosts have won three - and the visitors two of their last seven games. In their last game they lost to Huachapito on the road as clear underdogs – priced around 4.00 to win at the time of kickoff. Even so, they had 54% ball possession and recorded more shots on goal, corner kicks, attacks and dangerous attacks. Both teams had 11 goal attempts and the expected goals (xG) numbers were 0.99-0.96. Before this they beat Copiapo at home 1-0 despite their player, B. Martinez, being sent off in the 52nd minute. I loved the way they defended with 10 men! U. De Chile were disappointing in their last game. It was a goalless draw at home against Nublense. The hosts were priced around 1.70 to win by the bookies. Yes, They had 63% ball possession and recorded 31 goal attempts but their attacks were often too slow and lacked creativity. The xG numbers were 1.44-1.38. Before this they were very disappointing, losing to U. Catolica 1-2 at home as very clear favourites on the betting market. U. De Chile managed only one more goal attempt than the visitors. The xG numbers were pretty balanced - 0.66-0.54 to be precise.

埃弗顿VS智利大学

北京时间周一凌晨，埃弗顿在维纳德尔马的索萨利托球场迎来了智利联赛第15轮的比赛。按照南美的标准，这个联赛的水平有些低。然而，足球迷和我们这些认真的、追求利润的投注者可以期待一场按照联赛标准相当高质量的比赛。最重要的是，我们还有另一个有利可图的投注机会，可以在这个联赛上获得更多的利润。上个赛季埃弗顿的成绩比智利好得多。埃弗顿以45分排名第六。智利大学排名第九。是的，他们本赛季有所进步，但结果是，在博彩市场上变得太热门了。他们目前以29分的积分排名第一。然而，他们的期望点数(xPTS)“只有”25.45。他们已经把球打进了25次，这是一个不错的数字，但不是很好。东道主已经进了22个球。智利队的防守比我在季前赛的深入分析中预期的要好得多。是的，他们的防守结构很好，但是本赛季到目前为止，他们的许多防守球员都超出了他们的正常水平。他们丢了12个球，但他们的预期失球数(xGA)是15.03个。是的，客队的防守比主队好，但毕竟差距不大。埃弗顿丢了22球。他们以21分排在第8位，整体上让我有点失望。然而，我给他们的潜力改进相当多的强调。从纯粹的等级来看，博彩公司似乎认为客队是更好的球队，因为他们对客场获胜的赔率只有2.25左右。根据我强烈基于数据的分析，这是不正确的。考虑到主场的巨大优势，我认为东道主在这里的优势微乎其微!埃弗顿在索萨利托球场的六场比赛中只输了一场，他们的球迷也很吵闹。我们在这里选择埃弗顿+0.5个进球障碍选项。

东道主在最近七场比赛中赢了三场，客队赢了两场。在上一场比赛中，他们在客场输给了瓦查皮托，显然处于劣势——开球时的胜率约为4.00。即便如此，他们有54%的控球率，记录了更多的射门、角球、进攻和危险进攻。两队都有11次进球尝试，预期进球(xG)值为0.99-0.96。在此之前，他们在主场1-0击败了科皮亚波，尽管他们的球员马丁内斯在第52分钟被罚下。我喜欢他们用10个人防守的方式!智利队在上一场比赛中表现令人失望。主场0比0战平纽布伦塞。博彩公司给东道主开出的赔率约为1.70英镑。是的，他们有63%的控球率，有31次进球尝试，但他们的进攻往往太慢，缺乏创造力。xG值为1.44 ~ 1.38。在此之前，他们非常令人失望，在主场1-2输给了天主教队，这在博彩市场上是非常明显的热门。智利只比客队多进了一个球。xG值相当平衡——准确地说是0.66-0.54。