Who will be the Champions League winner?
2024-06-01

Borja

外籍分析师

解读理由:

This is one of the most unequal finals we have in an UCL Final in recent history in my opinion. Difference between both teams is huge and I expect Real Madrid, the absolutely kings of the tournament, to lift the trophy one more time and I’ll explain you why.

Borussia Dortmund has all my respect. They have been underdogs during the whole tournament and managed to beat very strong rivals. Starting from the group stage, the “group of the death” with Newcaste, PSG and Milan, and then surviving to very difficult games in the knockout rounds against Atletico, PSV and PSG.

For me their most impressive performance was against PSG, as they managed to kept Kyian Mbappe quiet in both rounds and also had a high effectiveness, converting the few chances they had. However, they were outplayed in both games and aso very lucky to keep the goal to nil. PSG generated 1.45 xG in the first leg and 3.22 in the second game, with 6 shots to the post between both games. Borussia is a team who concedes a lot of chances and is a very easy team to score goals, so surely Madrid will kill them in every single chance they have.

There are three key players that Borussia need to have at their best to have chances here: Marcel Sabitzer, Jadon Sancho and Karim Adeyemi. Also goalkeeper Gregorio Kobel has been one of the best goalkeepers in the tournament so far with amazing saves.

Borussia Dortmund is well known for their mental strength, but I can’t see them surviving against Real Madrid and far from their stadium - Signal Iduna Park, where they are particularly strong.

They have been living on the edge during the whole tournament, with some very lucky actions in the most important games of the tournament so far.

Furthermore, they have slow defenders in my opinion who could struggle with Real Madrid’ attack and pace. The midfield battle will be crucial as well, and I think it will be very difficult for Emre Can and Marcel Sabitzer to dominate that area playing against one of the best midfield pairs we have seen in recent years: Luka Modric and Toni Kroos. I expect Real Madrid to have the advantage here, as they have much more quality and experience, so I see them controlling the midfield in this fixture.

Regarding Real Madrid, there's pedigree, and then there's Real Madrid's Champions League pedigree. They have shown during the tournament and amazing chemistry with the UCL, beating the main title contenders in different and crazy ways.

This would be the icing on the cake for a team that ran wild in La Liga, winning the league by 10 points with the best scoring record both offensively and on defense.

They have won the last 8 UCL finals they have played. That’s amazing and to think that someone could beat them in a fixture like this one is an act of faith. Nobody since Liverpool in 1981 did that.

Real Madrid already beat all german teams in this tournament so far: Leipzig, Union Berlin and Bayern Munich. And need to remember that two of them (Leipzig and Bayern) finished above Borussia in the Bundesliga table.

If we look at the lineups, I can see only one area where Borussia could have a better player: in the CB, with Schlotterbeck or Hummes who are above Madrid’s CB. In the rest of positions, I see Real Madrid with a much better squad and more quality, which means that they are way superior to Borussia.

Real Madrid need to control Borussia’ counterattacks, which is their strong point. In this area will be very important Carvajal and Mendy to control the wings.

Vinicius will be the key player in this final, especially if he has spaces. Ryerson is a good defender, but I don’t see him being able to stop the Brazilian winger.

I see Real Madrid strongly favorite here. We can’t forget that Borussia is the 5th in the Bundesliga, whilst Madrid is the absolute king of this competition. Have more quality and experience, and for me their chances to win this title are around 70%.



该文章通过有道机器翻译,仅供参考:

在我看来,这是近年来伦敦联赛决赛中最不平等的决赛之一。两支球队之间的差距是巨大的,我希望皇马,绝对的联赛之王,再一次举起奖杯,我将解释为什么。

我对多特蒙德充满敬意。他们在整个比赛中都处于下风,却成功地击败了非常强大的对手。从小组赛开始,与纽卡什特、巴黎圣日耳曼和米兰组成“死亡之组”,然后在淘汰赛中与马竞、埃因霍温和巴黎圣日耳曼进行非常艰难的比赛。

对我来说,他们最令人印象深刻的表现是对阵巴黎圣日耳曼,因为他们在两轮比赛中都设法让姆巴佩安静下来,而且效率很高,把他们仅有的几次机会都转化成了机会。然而,他们在两场比赛中都处于劣势,并且非常幸运地将比分保持为零。PSG首回合进球1.45,次回合进球3.22,两场比赛共射门6次。俄罗斯是一支丢了很多机会的球队,是一支很容易进球的球队,所以皇马肯定会抓住每一个机会杀死他们。

要想在这里获得机会,切尔西需要三名关键球员:马塞尔·萨比策、贾登·桑乔和卡里姆·阿德耶米。此外,守门员格雷戈里奥·科贝尔也是本届杯赛迄今为止最出色的门将之一,他的扑救令人惊叹。

多特蒙德的精神力量是出了名的,但我不认为他们能在远离他们的球场——伊杜纳公园的情况下战胜皇马,他们在那里的实力特别强。

在整个比赛中,他们一直处于危险的边缘,在迄今为止最重要的比赛中,他们有一些非常幸运的表现。

此外,在我看来,他们的后卫速度很慢,可能会与皇马的进攻和速度相抗衡。中场的战斗也将是至关重要的,我认为埃姆雷·詹和马塞尔·萨比策很难在与近年来我们所见过的最好的中场组合之一:卢卡·莫德里奇和托尼·克罗斯的比赛中占据主导地位。我希望皇马在这里有优势,因为他们有更多的实力和经验,所以我认为他们会在这场比赛中控制中场。

关于皇马,有血统,还有皇家马德里的欧冠血统。他们在联赛中表现出了惊人的化学反应,用不同而疯狂的方式击败了主要的冠军竞争者。

对于一支在西甲赛场上狂奔的球队来说,这将是锦上添花,他们在进攻和防守上都以最好的得分记录赢得了联赛的10分。

他们参加过的最近8次欧冠决赛都赢了。这太神奇了,想到有人能在这样的比赛中击败他们,这是一种信仰的表现。自1981年利物浦之后,再没有人做到过这一点。

到目前为止,皇马已经击败了所有德国球队:莱比锡、柏林联盟和拜仁慕尼黑。而且需要记住的是,其中两支球队(莱比锡和拜仁)在德甲积分榜上超过了俄罗斯。

如果我们看看阵容,我可以看到只有一个地方可以有一个更好的球员:在后腰,施洛特贝克或胡姆斯在马德里后腰之上。在其他位置上,我认为皇马拥有更好的阵容和更强的实力,这意味着他们要比博尔什强得多。

皇马需要控制住俄罗斯队的反击,这是他们的强项。在这个区域卡瓦哈尔和门迪将非常重要的控制两翼。

维尼修斯将是这场决赛的关键球员,特别是如果他有空位的话。瑞尔森是一个很好的后卫,但我不认为他能阻止巴西边锋。

我认为皇马是最受欢迎的球队。我们不能忘记,拜仁在德甲排名第五,而皇马是这项赛事的绝对王者。他们有更多的实力和经验,对我来说,他们赢得冠军的机会在70%左右。

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