Thun VS Grasshopper

Thun and Grasshoppers lock horns in this Swiss Superliga Relegation Final 2nd leg clash at Stockhorn Arena early Saturday morning Beijing time. However, in reality, the visitors have played in the Super League, the first tier but the hosts competed in the Challenge League this season. I want to highlight that the difference in class between the two leagues is substantial! We can expect an intense and probably more physical game than usual here. A lot of yellow cards - or even sending off(s) would not surprise me at all.. The stakes are, indeed, high as the winner of this match up will play in the first tier next season! According to a well-known and respected German website, Transfermarkt.com, the visitors are the much bigger team here. Indeed, their squad has an estimated market value of some 18 million euros. The Thun players, on the other hand, have a total market value of close to seven million. Both numbers are more or less correct in my expert opinion. Grasshoppers have much more quality than Thun in all areas of the game. They surely will not have an easy task of defeating Thun on the road but the Thun fans are not very enthusiastic – even by Swiss standards. With today's expected lineups, even taking the moderate home advantage into account I have to disagree with the biggest bookies here. Indeed, almost all bookies see Thun as the favourites here – offering odds of around 2.45-2.55 on the home win during the 90 minutes of play. The Grasshoppers +0.5 goals handicap option is the obvious smart bet here!

The teams locked horns five days ago at Letzigrund Stadion in Zürich and it was a 1-1 draw. Grasshoppers, however, would have deserved a win. Indeed, they had close to 70% ball possession and recorded many more goal attempts (18-7), shots on goal, shots off goal, blocked shots, corner kicks (19-0), attacks and dangerous attacks – 117-32 to be precise. They also generated much more in expected goals (xG). Yes, Grasshoppers are having a disappointing season, no denying this. Last season they finished in 7th place – only three points from Basel who made it for the UEFA Europa Conference League qualification. This season they finished in 5th place in the Relegation Group where six teams played this spring. They finished the regular season with 38 points to their account but their numbers of expected points (xPTS) was 43.46. They scored a decent 41 goals and their number of xG was 45.45. Furthermore, their defence was not bad at all. Indeed, they conceded 49 goals, the smallest number in the Relegation Group! Despite playing against opponents of much better quality than Thun, Grasshoppers have lost only one of their last six games. I do trust their coach in terms of both tactical skills and as a leader. Before the draw with Thun they took a point from Lausanne on the road through a 1-1 draw as big underdogs – priced around 4.70 to win by the bookies. The hosts did generate more in xG though. Thun have achieved pretty good results recently – winning five of their last eight games. They finished in 2nd place in the Challenge League with a fine 76 points in their pocket. However, their number of xPTS was "only" 70.23. Before the first leg against Grasshoppers Thun defeated Will (5th place with 44 points) 3-0 on the road as very clear favourites on the betting market. The score is very misleading though.. The hosts had 57% ball possession and recorded many more goal attempts(17-12) and shots off goal – 11-6. Both teams had six shots on target. Before this they beat Vaduz as big favourites 6-3 at home. However, the visitors had 63% ball possession and - very surprisingly - recorded more corner kicks, total passes, completed passes and attacks. Once again the final score flattered Thun who have, as a result, become too "hot" on the betting market..

Thun VS Grasshopper

北京时间周六凌晨，土恩队和蚱蜢队将在瑞士超级联赛保级决赛第二回合的比赛中在斯托克霍恩球场交锋。然而，在现实中，客队已经参加了第一梯队的超级联赛，而主队本赛季参加了挑战联赛。我想强调的是，两个联赛的等级差异是巨大的!我们可以期待一场比平时更激烈的身体对抗。很多黄牌，甚至是被罚下，我一点也不惊讶。赌注确实很高，因为这场比赛的获胜者将在下赛季参加第一梯队的比赛!根据德国一家知名且受人尊敬的网站Transfermarkt.com，客队在这里的规模要大得多。事实上，这支球队的市场价值估计在1800万欧元左右。另一方面，雷霆队球员的总市值接近700万美元。在我看来，这两个数字或多或少是正确的。蚱蜢在比赛的各个方面都比图恩有更高的质量。他们当然不会轻易在客场击败图恩，但图恩的球迷并不热情——即使以瑞士的标准来看也是如此。根据今天的预期阵容，即使考虑到适度的主场优势，我也不得不不同意这里最大的博彩公司。事实上，几乎所有的博彩公司都认为图恩是最受欢迎的球队——在90分钟的比赛中，主场获胜的赔率约为2.45-2.55。蚱蜢+0.5个进球障碍选项显然是明智的选择!

这两支球队五天前在苏黎世的Letzigrund球场上演了一场大战，结果是1比1战平。然而，蚱蜢应该赢得一场胜利。事实上，他们有接近70%的控球率，并且记录了更多的进球尝试(18-7)、射正、射离、封堵、角球(19-0)、进攻和危险进攻——117-32。他们也产生了更多的预期目标(xG)。是的，蚱蜢正在经历一个令人失望的季节，这是不可否认的。上个赛季，他们以第7名的成绩结束比赛，只比巴塞尔差3分，而后者进入了欧联杯资格。本赛季，他们在今年春天有六支球队参加的降级组中排名第五。常规赛结束时，他们拿到了38分，但他们的预期得分(xPTS)是43.46分。他们打进了不错的41球，他们的xG数是45.45。此外，他们的防守一点也不差。事实上，他们丢了49个球，是保级组中最少的!尽管面对的对手比图恩强得多，但蚱蜢队在最近六场比赛中只输了一场。我确实信任他们的教练，无论是战术技巧还是作为一个领导者。在与图恩战平之前，他们在客场1-1战平，从洛桑那里拿了一分，作为大输家，博彩公司的胜率约为4.70。不过，主机在xG中确实产生了更多。图恩最近取得了不错的成绩，在过去的8场比赛中赢了5场。他们以76分的优异成绩在挑战赛中排名第二。然而，他们的xPTS数量“仅”为70.23。在首回合对阵蚱蜢之前，图恩在客场以3-0击败了威尔(第5名，44分)，成为博彩市场上非常明显的热门。这个分数很容易误导人…主队有57%的控球率，并且有更多的射门次数(17胜12负)和射门次数(11胜6负)。两队都有6次射正。在此之前，他们在主场以6-3击败了大热门瓦杜兹。然而，客队有63%的控球率，令人惊讶的是，他们的角球、总传球、完成传球和进攻次数都更多。最后的比分再一次让图恩受宠若惊，结果，他在博彩市场上变得太“热门”了。