Baumit Jablonec VS Tescoma Zlin

Jablonec and Zlin lock horns in this Fortuna Liga Relegation Group round 5 battle at Stadion Strelnice in Jablonec nad Nisou very early Sunday morning Beijing time. This is the first level of Czech football. The level of this league is mediocre by European standards. Football fans and us serious bettors – with a long-term profit in mind - can expect a match of much worse than average quality by this league's standards here! Six teams play in this group. The rock-bottom team will be relegated to the FNL for next season. The teams who finish 4th and 5th will still have a chance to save themselves. Zlin are currently in last place with a pathetic 27 goals to their account. Their season has been a disappointment, even taking into account that last season was a poor one as well. Indeed, they finished in second-last place with 34 points. Jabolonec took 40 points. The Zlin offense is not terrible, they have scored 40 goals – four less than Jablonec. The Zlin defence, on the other hand, is very leaky. Their defensive structure has been poor and the defenders have not been active enough in defending. Moreover, their defenders have made way too many silly mistakes – for example given a lot of too risky passes near their own goal. They have allowed a whopping 67 goals – the hosts have conceded only 50 goals. Jablonec are in 2nd place in this group with 39 points in their pocket. Their number of expected points (xPTS) is 40.12.

This is the last round of play and only Zlin have something to play for. They are two points behind both Karvina (4th) and Ceske Budejovice (5th) who have 29 points to their accounts. Zlin have to win to avoid relegation. I have, of course, taken this into account in my probability estimation. It seems that the bookies give this factor way too much emphasis. Indeed, odds of around 2.30-2.40 on the away win are way too low. We will take the Jablonec +0.5 goals handicap option. Let's not forget that Jablonec will surely want to end the season with a win in front of their loyal and loud fans! They deserve to be narrow favourites even with the expected lineups. The hosts' coach might well do some squad rotation here. The fact is that Zlin are simply a bad team and I do not trust their coach at all. There have also been rumours of Zlin having a poor team spirit.. Zlin have not won any of their last eight matches. In their last match they lost to Bohemians 1-2 at home as very clear favourites – priced around 2.00 to win by the bookies. The match was a pretty balanced one as a whole. Before this they played a 1-1 draw at home against Ceske Budejovice as pretty clear favourites. Both teams had 50% ball possession and it could easily have gone either way. Jablenec have not lost any of their last six games. In their last game they faced the very motivated Ceske Budejovice on the road as big underdogs – priced around 4.50 to win on the betting market. The visitors had 54% ball possession but the visitors recorded three more goal attempts and one more attack. Either team could have taken a

Baumit Jablonec VS Tescoma Zlin

北京时间周日凌晨，贾布内奇和兹林将在位于贾布内奇和尼苏的斯特里尼斯球场展开西甲降级小组第5轮的激战。这是捷克足球的第一阶段。按照欧洲的标准，这个联赛的水平是中等的。足球迷和我们这些认真的投注者——考虑到长期利润——可以期待一场比这个联赛的平均水平差得多的比赛!这一组有六支球队参赛。这支垫底的球队下个赛季将被降级到FNL。第四名和第五名的球队仍然有机会拯救自己。兹林目前以可怜的27球排在最后。他们的赛季令人失望，即使考虑到上个赛季也很糟糕。事实上，他们以34分排名倒数第二。Jabolonec拿了40分。兹林的进攻并不可怕，他们进了40个球——比雅布内奇少4个。另一方面，兹林的防御非常漏洞百出。他们的防守结构很差，防守队员防守不够积极。此外，他们的后卫犯了太多愚蠢的错误——例如，在他们自己的球门附近有很多太危险的传球。他们丢了67个球——东道主只丢了50个球。雅布内克以39分的积分排在小组第二。他们的期望值(xPTS)为40.12。

这是最后一轮比赛，只有兹林有东西可打。他们比卡尔维纳(第4名)和布德约维茨(第5名)都落后2分，他们的积分为29分。兹林必须赢球才能保级。当然，在我的概率估计中，我已经考虑到了这一点。看来博彩公司把这个因素看得太重了。事实上，客场获胜的赔率在2.30-2.40左右实在太低了。我们将采用Jablonec +0.5进球障碍选项。让我们不要忘记，贾布内克肯定希望在他们忠实的球迷面前以一场胜利结束这个赛季!即使在预期的阵容中，他们也应该是微弱的热门。东道主的教练可能会在这里进行一些阵容轮换。事实是兹林是一支糟糕的球队，我一点也不相信他们的教练。还有传言说兹林的团队精神很差。兹林队在最近的八场比赛中没有赢过一场。在上一场比赛中，他们在主场1-2输给了波希米亚人，这是非常明显的夺冠热门——博彩公司开出的胜率在2.00左右。这场比赛总体上是相当平衡的。在此之前，他们在主场1-1战平布德约维什，这是一个非常明显的热门。两支球队都有50%的控球权，很容易就会出现两种情况。Jablenec最近6场比赛没有输过一场。在上一场比赛中，他们面对的是斗志高昂的布德乔维茨队，他们是大输家，在博彩市场上的胜率约为4.50。客队的控球率为54%，但客队的进球次数多了3次，进攻次数也多了1次。任何一支球队都可以