Elfsborg VS Halmstad

Elfsborg and Halmsatd lock horns in this Swedish Allsvenskan round 11 battle at Borås Arena very early Saturday morning Beijing time. This is the first tier of Swedish football. The level of this league is of somewhat average level by European standards. Football fans and us serious bettors – with a long-term profit in mind - can expect a match of better than average quality by this league's standards here! Most importantly, we have a very promising betting opportunity here! We have won four of the last five picks betting on this league. Neither team have been that impressive so far this season. However, last season Elfsborg finished, rather surprisingly, as high as 2nd place. They played better than probably anyone would have expected before the season kicked off. They grabbed a total of 64 points, however they were lucky in very many games and their number of expected points (xPTS) was "only" 57.45. Halmstad, on the other hand, finished in 12th place. According to a well-known and respected German website, Transfermarkt.com, Elfsborg are the bigger team here in terms of players' estimated total market values – but not by a very big margin. Indeed, the Elfsborg squad has a market value of some 18 million euros. This is too high in my expert opinion. The Halmstad players are valued at a total of about seven million euros - this is a little too low. Many of the Elfsborg players played above their average level last season. I would be very surprised to see them place in the top-2 - or even top-3 this season. Even so, Elfsborg are the bigger and better team and have an edge in all areas of the game here. Even so, the current odds on the away win – around 1.30-1.35 – are clearly too low! We will take the Halmstad +1.5 goals handicap option here! Odds of around 1.90 are widely available and the chance of winning is 58.50%.

Despite the difference in class, I expect Halmstad to be relatively offensive here as they simply cannot defend very well.. Both teams have allowed 17 goals but both teams' number of expected goals allowed (xGA) is lower. I would not be very surprised to see some goals here but odds on the 0-0 and 1-1 score are too high on the betting market.. The hosts have scored 18 goals but this is misleading. Their number of expected goals (xG) is only 13.12. Halmstad have netted the ball 13 times – their number of xG is 12.03. The visitors have taken a fine 15 points – two more than the hosts! Yes, Elfsborg will surely improve from the current 9th place but the bookies give this potential way too much emphasis! Elfsborg have won three and lost five of their last eight games and have been erratic to say the least. In their match Elfsborg lost to GAIS 1-2 on the road as solid favourites – priced around 2.15 to win on the betting market. The xG numbers were 0.99-0.55. Yes, Elfsborg were disappointing. Before this Elfsborg defeated AIK 6-1 at home but the xG numbers were 1.77-0.76. The visitors even had 68% ball possession and recorded many more goal attempts and dangerous attacks – 86-21. The final score is hugely misleading! Halmstad were lame in their last game, losing to Djurgården 0-2 on the road as huge underdogs – priced around 10-12.00 to win by the bookies. Djurgården played very well but Halmstad still had six goal attempts. Before this Halmstad beat Häcken 3-0 at home – priced around 4.40 to win! The final score does flatter them though as they had to defend quite a lot.. In round 8, on the other hand, Halmstad were unlucky to lose to Mjällby 1-3 at home as solid underdogs. The xG numbers were 1.65-1.06 in the hosts' favour!

艾尔夫斯堡VS哈尔姆斯塔德

北京时间周六凌晨，埃尔夫斯堡和哈尔姆萨德在瑞典阿尔斯文斯坎队第11轮比赛中展开了较量。这是瑞典足球的第一梯队。按照欧洲的标准，这个联赛的水平属于中等水平。足球迷和我们这些认真的投注者——考虑到长期的利润——可以期待一场比这个联赛的平均水平更好的比赛!最重要的是，我们在这里有一个非常有前途的赌博机会!我们在过去五次赌这个联赛的选秀中赢了四次。本赛季到目前为止，这两支球队都没有那么令人印象深刻。然而，上赛季埃尔夫斯堡完成，相当令人惊讶，高达第二名。在赛季开始之前，他们的表现可能比任何人预期的都要好。他们总共拿到了64分，然而他们在很多比赛中都很幸运，他们的期望积分(xPTS)“只有”57.45分。另一方面，哈尔姆斯塔德排在第12位。根据德国一家知名且受人尊敬的网站Transfermarkt.com的数据，就球员的估计总市值而言，埃尔夫斯堡是最大的球队，但差距并不大。事实上，埃尔夫斯堡队的市场价值约为1800万欧元。以我的专业意见，这个价格太高了。哈尔姆斯塔德球员的总身价约为700万欧元——这有点太低了。上赛季很多埃尔夫斯堡球员的表现都高于他们的平均水平。如果他们本赛季能进入前二甚至前三，我会感到非常惊讶。即便如此，埃尔夫斯堡是一支更大更好的球队，在比赛的各个方面都有优势。即便如此，目前客场获胜的赔率——大约1.30-1.35——显然太低了!我们将采取哈尔姆斯塔德+1.5进球障碍选项在这里!赔率约为1.90，获胜几率为58.50%。

尽管在级别上有所不同，但我认为哈尔姆斯塔德在这里会相对更具攻击性，因为他们根本无法很好地防守。两队都丢了17个球，但两队的预期丢球数(xGA)更低。看到一些进球我不会很惊讶，但是在博彩市场上0-0和1-1的赔率太高了。东道主已经进了18个球，但这是误导。他们的预期进球数(xG)只有13.12。哈尔姆斯塔德有13次进球，他们的进球数是12.03。客队得了整整15分——比主队多两分!是的，埃尔夫斯堡肯定会从目前的第9名提高，但博彩公司给了这个潜在的方式太强调了!埃尔夫斯堡在最近的8场比赛中取得了3胜5负的战绩，至少可以说他们的表现不稳定。在他们的比赛中，埃尔夫斯堡以1比2输给了GAIS，他们是最受欢迎的球队，在博彩市场上的胜率约为2.15英镑。xG值为0.99 ~ 0.55。是的，Elfsborg很令人失望。在此之前，埃尔夫斯堡主场6-1击败AIK，但xG数字为1.77-0.76。客队甚至有68%的控球率，并记录了更多的进球尝试和危险进攻——86比21。最后的分数是非常具有误导性的!哈姆斯塔德在上一场比赛中表现不佳，在客场0-2输给了德鲁克巴登，这是一个巨大的劣势——博彩公司的胜率约为10-12.00。djurgamatrden踢得很好，但是Halmstad仍然有6次射门。在此之前，哈尔姆斯塔德在主场3-0击败Häcken，价格在4.40左右获胜!最后的比分确实让他们高兴，因为他们不得不防守很多次。另一方面，在第8轮比赛中，哈尔姆斯塔德不幸在主场1-3输给Mjällby。比分是1.65比1.06，东道主占上风!